Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 22 - Sports Betting

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11-06-2010 , 07:42 PM

#526

KUJustin

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 3,346

This is probably flame-worthy but is there any decent source out there for push percentages for those of us without our own database? Pinny's drop-downs only get me a couple points each direction and I know SBR's is not very good at all.

Quote

11-06-2010 , 08:16 PM

#527

calm

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,087

Quote:

Originally Posted by KUJustin

I know SBR's is not very good at all.

Any other great unsubstantiated wisdom you'd care to share?

Quote

11-06-2010 , 11:18 PM

#528

ProfessorBen

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

let this be a lesson, flame shield still gets flamed.

all the sbr tools were accurate at the time of print, as far as i know the only problem they have is that they aren't maintained, but neither are the push percentages you find in SSB. i still use them.

edit: wow was in n00b thread too.

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11-06-2010 , 11:40 PM

#529

gfxhjk

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

haven't used sbr tools in a while but i remember ganchrow saying they auto update but i don't believe it. i never saw any change from 07-08

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11-07-2010 , 10:27 AM

#530

ProfessorBen

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weeeee got all my falcons combos in, including some marginal ones before bodog moved to falcons -9. almost a blessing to get up this early with the smell of chili slow cooking downstairs.

Quote

11-07-2010 , 10:41 AM

#531

KUJustin

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Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 3,346

ProfBen, thanks for the non-flame. The 2 issues I'd heard (or at least remember hearing) with SBR are

1) they treat the push percentages the same regardless of the spread, when the distributions are not actually the same
2) they don't do any "smoothing" to correct obvious noise in the sample

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, or maybe those just aren't as big a deal as I was lead to believe.

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11-07-2010 , 11:57 AM

#532

shipitkthx

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Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by KUJustin

1. Correct.
2. Only semi-correct. There is some smoothing, they don't simply use how often the 7 pushed on an exact spread of 7. Could they smooth/fix further, most likely.

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11-07-2010 , 01:51 PM

#533

Pwn_Master

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Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 8,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

weeeee got all my falcons combos in, including some marginal ones before bodog moved to falcons -9. almost a blessing to get up this early with the smell of chili slow cooking downstairs.

Did the same. TB is now +10 (-102) on 5 dimes. +10 EVEN on Pinny if you have that or a better price on other outs. Pretty much never hedge the teasers, but that is one juicy middle.

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11-07-2010 , 01:53 PM

#534

ProfessorBen

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i have +10 +101!

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11-07-2010 , 05:35 PM

#535

B00T

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Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

bump for sick backdoor covers by Vikes and Jets

could be a big day today folks

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11-07-2010 , 06:36 PM

#536

luegofuego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,874

hoooooly ****, i was all steamed up about getting ****ed over there. <<<<<33333333

Quote

11-08-2010 , 12:03 AM

#537

ProfessorBen

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

Ladies and Gentleman, I have the esteemed pleasure to present to you

Spoiler:

*Credit to Card08 for concept, poor MSPaint execution by SHIPZILLA <3

performify: no ban plz, im a chinaman.

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11-08-2010 , 12:21 AM

#538

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

well, today was fun. Certainly happy to get back nearly all of last week's losses.

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11-08-2010 , 12:27 AM

#539

ProfessorBen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

well, today was fun. Certainly happy to get back nearly all of last week's losses.

SHOULD'VE BET MORE!

last sunday: -12% bankroll
this sunday: +26% bankroll

2 out of 3 middles isn't bad:
Falcons -2.5/Bucs +10
Chiefs +7/Raiders +7
Vikings -1.5
Texans +9
Giants -1
Bills +9
Colts +9
Packers -1/(Cowboys +7.5)

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11-08-2010 , 12:54 AM

#540

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

only 5 legs when I was placing bets

Texans
Vikes
Pack
Saints
Giants

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11-08-2010 , 01:40 AM

#541

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Henne O 230 Yards -118
Henne U 250 Yards -110

C. Henne 231 yards

All aboard the rungood train. Anyway to roughly price the ev of such a middle? I just assumed it shipped more than 1-12 tries.

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11-08-2010 , 02:44 AM

#542

Pwn_Master

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Jesus Christ, next time I start to bitch to myself about running bad, I am going to try to remember the Vikings, Falcons, and Colts games today and STFU.

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11-08-2010 , 06:11 AM

#543

ProfessorBen

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meh colts were a nonbet. i just did it when they were less marginal to get more chiefs/falcons down as they were going off the board.

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11-08-2010 , 07:24 AM

#544

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

I'm sure you were glad to get in all those Saints legs.

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11-08-2010 , 11:46 AM

#545

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

After last week's debacle, I cut my bets by 50% and only took 3 teams this week.

FML.

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11-08-2010 , 11:53 AM

#546

ProfessorBen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNuts

After last week's debacle, I cut my bets by 50% and only took 3 teams this week.

FML.

i mean, if you're gunna do it wrong and not just standard kelly size it, BET BIGGER TO CHASE LOSSES.

Quote

11-08-2010 , 12:05 PM

#547

DeezNuts

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

i mean, if you're gunna do it wrong and not just standard kelly size it, BET BIGGER TO CHASE LOSSES.

I will heed this advice next week. Prepare for another debacle!

Quote

11-08-2010 , 12:59 PM

#548

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

I'm sure you were glad to get in all those Saints legs.

nope... closed like **** just like j7 predicted

decided 2h30m was enough ahead of time

regardless, I knew I had the Panthers gm and 1h bets in independently, so I could accept the very marginal Saints leg when I put it in

Quote

11-08-2010 , 03:59 PM

#549

Pwn_Master

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

meh colts were a nonbet. i just did it when they were less marginal to get more chiefs/falcons down as they were going off the board.

I think they were okay on Fri or something, and then faded into the extremely marginal zone. Didn't realize it when watching at bars, but when I got home saw that the GOAT getting his helmet touched was the difference btw a decent day and a huge day for me cuz they were thrown into a bunch of 3 and 4 team teasers to get more action on the solid legs and a push on the 9 would have been a brutal outright loss on those.