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Why not to bet Teasers

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11-02-2009 , 01:13 AM

AngerPush

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Besides the obvious that teasers are sucker bets of course, here is a little support for that.

Looking at the 12 NFL games today, there wasn't a single one where teasing would have made a difference. The closest line to the final score was 9 points. Put another way, whichever team you would have picked before teasing, the exact same result would have occurred, and teasing makes you take way worse odds then if you just parlayed whichever ones you want (though I don't suggest that either)

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11-02-2009 , 01:15 AM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

How to embarrass yourself in under 50 words.

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11-02-2009 , 01:20 AM

AngerPush

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very constructive

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11-02-2009 , 01:20 AM

MacauBungee

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 959

How to say

AWWWWMFGI'MSOLEETANDIDNEVEREVERBETATEASER SOPLZSTFUKTNXBYEUNEWB

in under 10 words

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11-02-2009 , 01:22 AM

AngerPush

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,322

how about we post an o/u of 80 words in the op:

"How to embarrass yourself in under 50 words." MASSIVE FAIL.

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11-02-2009 , 01:25 AM

MacauBungee

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 959

I can't believe I didn't count the words. Thremp > Me.

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11-02-2009 , 01:28 AM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Man, I can't believe I didn't consider counting each of the words individually and instead chose a random round number so I could go back to living my sullen anger filled life.

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11-02-2009 , 01:28 AM

AngerPush

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thremp i was only making a casual observation that the lines ended up being way off for the nfl games today. I decided to throw in the topic thinking maybe it would elicit more of a response than "casual observation about nfl lines today"

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11-02-2009 , 01:28 AM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Okay. Your observation is really dumb.

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11-02-2009 , 01:29 AM

#10

AngerPush

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

Man, I can't believe I didn't consider counting each of the words individually and instead chose a random round number so I could go back to living my sullen anger filled life.

I didnt expect you to count them but if you're going to make such a stupid claim and be so far off, yeah you deserved a rebuttal. The name comes from my Party handle from ~4 years ago. It's tongue in cheek, though I'm sure that's probably lost on you

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11-02-2009 , 01:30 AM

#11

Vincepcion

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 2,522

nice sample size

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11-02-2009 , 01:31 AM

#12

AngerPush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Vincepcion

nice sample size

really? I thought 12 was large enough to make all sorts of inferences...

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11-02-2009 , 01:50 AM

#13

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Teasers are hedges against your team barely not covering.

Hedges never win.

So teasers are sucker bets.

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11-02-2009 , 01:56 AM

#14

MacauBungee

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 959

Well said

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11-02-2009 , 04:43 AM

#15

Vincepcion

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 2,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngerPush

really? I thought 12 was large enough to make all sorts of inferences...

if all the ATS underdogs won SU this week, would you suggest that we forget about betting dogs ATS and just bet them ML?

looking at the nfl games for that day, there wasn't a single one where betting the spread would make a difference. Put another way, whichever team you would have picked before betting the spread, the exact same result would have occurred if you just bet to win straight up, and betting the spread makes you take way worse price than if you just played them moneyline

this week is not a large enough sample size to make any sort of inferences

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11-02-2009 , 07:12 AM

#16

jeccross

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vincepcion

this week is not a large enough sample size to make any sort of inferences

This is the point, whether teasers are sucker bets or not, it's dumb to try to prove any point by using a sample of one weekend chosen after the event.

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11-02-2009 , 10:59 AM

#17

Jimmy Proffett

SE's NFL Swami

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 23,062

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11-02-2009 , 12:53 PM

#18

AngerPush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Vincepcion

Learn what sarcasm is man. Of course I know 12 is a meaningless sample size, I majored in statistics. My entire op was just pointing out how far off the lines ended up being, that's all. In no way am I trying to make a point about how to bet or that the lines weren't "correct" this week or anything like that. I just don't recall seeing a week where the spreads ended up being so far off.

Last edited by AngerPush; 11-02-2009 at 12:55 PM. Reason: reworded last sentence

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11-02-2009 , 02:58 PM

#19

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

One guy min raised, 6 people called, I folded my 4-5 of hearts on the button. The flop came JQK of spades. I had no pair and no draw on the flop, even if I stayed in. I know not to ever play 4-5 hearts under any circumstances.

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11-02-2009 , 03:05 PM

#20

cookieb

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by B00T

Nice fold

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11-02-2009 , 03:18 PM

#21

CaptainHook

adept

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 814

12 can be a solid sample size in certain circumstances

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11-02-2009 , 04:03 PM

#22

Scruffs Mcguff

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,367

which are....?

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11-02-2009 , 05:51 PM

#23

loosekanen

USA#1, Oh Yeah!

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 27,838

Let's say you start 12 threads and are ridiculed for inanity in all 12... I think that might qualify.

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11-02-2009 , 06:49 PM

#24

anononon

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngerPush

I majored in statistics.

Get a refund on your degree if possible.

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11-02-2009 , 07:36 PM

#25

Johnny_B

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngerPush

I majored in statistics.

Phoenix Online?

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