Does anyone know of a good site that posts professional handicappers picks? There is one I use that is kind of hit and miss from week to week and I would like to have something I can count on that's consistent. Any suggestions?

I flip coins.

Whatever Pinnacle gives me

+1 on the pinnacle

it's not really picks, but collegefootballnews.com basically predicts every game two different ways...... i've found it and another service i get access to are pretty good on more obscure games. i think things like USC-ASU are reasonably efficient (nothing like nfl though)...

lots of little free marketing emails out there too, but like you said, that's probably hit and miss

On pinnacle, do you just look at the trends they post on there or do they give you other information too? Where do you go to get info?

1) Look at Pinnacle's line
2) Find a better one
3) profit!

I like to take a lot of home favorites. You're more likely to score a lot of points with the crowd behind you. Of course, if the visiting seems to be hot, I'll lay off or even place a ML bet on them.

Well that could actually be +ev, at least it would make sense if u take betfair instead of pinnacle

Worked for Matthew Mchoney

http://onlinesportsbettor.blogspot.com/

http://www.puresabermetrics.com/

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

http://analyticalsports.blogspot.com/

http://resultsdisoriented.blogspot.com/

if rsigley ever starts up his blog again, use that one as well

Pinnacle >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> betfair for American Sports.

If by Betfair you mean Matchbook, you are still wrong.

Here is how I interpret this:

1. Assume that Pinnacle's market is efficient
2. Convert to a no-vig price
3. Find better than this price on some other market

If this is indeed a robust method for making money, why would anyone ever actually want place a bet on Pinnacle?

Placing a bet there says that you know better than them what the proper no-vig equilibrium is. I suppose it could also be correct to place a bet there if you are maximizing EG due to a bet you placed in a different market.

Are my assumptions wrong, or are there lots of people out there that are capable of consistently beating their prices?

Yes, you are right. As for why you would want to bet on Pinnacle, well, any random donk betting sports would benefit from betting on Pinnacle simply because of the lower juice. People arbing bets also have sufficient reason to do this as well. They also offer futures and some illiquid markets that are beatable as well (Magic: The Gathering, WSOP cashes, etc).

There's also lossback (like ArbCentral used to offer), which can give you anywhere from 15-25% back on your losses at Pinnacle depending on your affiliate. When you combine this with 0-cent or better arbitrage opportunities, you can start to see how this could make the big bucks.

However, sports betting is no different than anything else gambling-related - you're trying to find idiots who will take your action where you have the edge.

parlay slow,
to add on, you are correct in thinking about maximizing EG

Often, the optimal growth on your 'edges' is still less than the growth from betting Arbs

Also, 'efficent' != 'perfectly set lines'

It just means that the vast majority of line errors are unbiased. Plus, there's openers and line moves from injury, benchings, etc, etc.

http://www.mrblackjack.com/


Mels blog for NFL

I usually go with Brandon Lang since there was a movie after him and he's the best handicapper in the world.

My buddies and I used to do high-stakes Magic drafts. Those were better, simpler times.

And sort of back on topic, are you telling me Pinny offers MTG Pro Tour wagers?!? If so, I think I will start looking for apartments in Canada.

Yes, they offer them, but the limits are extremely low. I wouldn't quit your day job just yet to become a pro Magic bettor.

I tried this for about a year..the rule I used on football/basketball for games first halfs and 2nd halfs was 8 cents or more...If pinnacle was at say -4 -20 cents I would go lay 4 -10 cents,you had to use the drop down box alot..I was betting these small, a nickel a game and after a full football and basketball season I was down about 9k...so do not assume if pinnacle has a shaded number that is the right side of a game.This was maybe 03 or 04

maybe you just don't know how to take full advantage of it

only time i don't trust pinnacle is when its way off from the other big books

This is the kind of thread that demonstrates how wrong the people are who say this board sucks because nobody ever shares anything useful and newbies always get jumped on. The OP posted a "bad topic" yet he has received some pretty good information. I don't think you would find that on any other SB forum.