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when to take - moneline? when to take - moneline?

11-17-2007 , 08:04 PM
i have been reading this forum a lot lately trying to learn, and one thing i almost never seen is anyone taking a negative money line unless they are arbing, what kinds of situations if ever is this right other than in an arb?
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-17-2007 , 08:13 PM
Anytime its +EV? Or in a hedge.
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-17-2007 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Anytime its +EV? Or in a hedge.
yeah, well i know when it is +ev, but it seems pretty rare that people take negative money lines, maybe its just that i havent noticed it but iirc i've seen far more + money lines than - posted
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-17-2007 , 08:33 PM
i like -moneylines in baseball, but only for small favorites
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-17-2007 , 09:45 PM
Most favorites are overvalued.
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-17-2007 , 09:59 PM
lay the points if you like a fav

bet the moneyline if you like the dog
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-18-2007 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Most favorites are overvalued.
No.
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-18-2007 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Anytime its +EV
End of discussion.
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-18-2007 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Anytime its +EV
End of discussion.
but this is sort of circular logic, my question is really why does it seem a lot less common for people to take negative money lines, or am i imagining things
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-18-2007 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Most favorites are overvalued.
No.
I'm interested in your thoughts on this. I've heard conflicting economic arguments on why they're overrated and why they're not. And judging from my random (small) sample. The no-vig line isn't accurate as a true line for large MLs.

Side note: If anyone wants to help make a scraper to pull lines in a variety of sports for research. I'd be excited.
when to take - moneline? Quote
11-18-2007 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Most favorites are overvalued.
No.
... or they have no value. I also consider the OVER bet as a "favorite".

There are good bets to be had with favorites, but a majority of my good bets are with underdogs and UNDERs.

If you're making a majority of your +EV bets on favorites and OVERs then it seems I should refine my methods.

Is this a fair assessment?
when to take - moneline? Quote

      
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