NEW AND IMPROVED!!!!!!!

Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino

To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox

If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.

Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.


Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.

Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2

Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.

Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.

Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2

Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.

Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2

at +145, I have money on Thiago


Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon

This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.

I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.

Not to be critical, but you didn't list any odds. This is a betting forum used for critical analysis, so straight pickum's are not so valuable.

Not to be overly defensive or nit-pick, but I did list the odds for Thiago Alves.

You're right though. I had expected the odds for the rest of the fights to come out today. I hope I don't commit too big of a faux pas. I'm new to the forum, and still getting used to the way things are handled here. The UFC 84 thread didn't have any lines at all in the first post, so I didn't think it would be too bad for me to do the same.

I don't know if you've seen it, but I don't feel like I'm 'sharp' enough yet to estimate a line, although I feel I"m pretty good at picking winners/losers or recognizing a real live dog, so that's all I am doing so far.

Here you go.

Karo Paryisan -156
Thiago Alves +150

Joe Lauzon +186
Kenny Florian -210 (may get a better price at a smaller site)

FYI: Aurelio is fighting Ryan Roberts
http://www.sherdog.com/fightfinder/f...ighterID=19761
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news.asp?n_id=11910

First off, this is an incredible card and I am lucky to have tickets to go see this fight night. I will only give my picks on the two fights that have solid lines right now.

Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian (-210) vs. Joe “Baby Joe” Lauzon (+170)

Joe Lauzon has good all around skills, and has the abilities and drive to be a factor in the lightweight division. Although he does not hold any jujitsu belt, he is a skilled grappler and is excellent in transitions. He has solid standup, and a good chin. As much as I would like Joe to win this fight, I do not think he will. Kenny has an incredible jujitsu track record, has devastating elbows in the clinch and on the ground, and has good kicks. Although Joe is solid, Kenny is just a figher on a different level. I would take Kenny at -300. At -210, he is a steal.

Caro "The Heat" Parisyan (-175) vs. Thiago "The Pit Bull" Alves (+145)

This is another fight where I have to bet against the fighter I like. Thiago is a bjj black belt that has good standup, and is extremely aggressive. He is legit. Caro is a world class judo player, who has adapted judo to MMA seamlessly. Although Caro is not at Alves' level on the ground, because of Caro's superior takedowns and defense, he gets to dictate where the fight takes place. I do not give Caro an advantage on either the ground or exchanging while standing, Caro becomes the clear winner of this fight due to his ability to chain throws into submissions and the extra gear he finds as the fight goes on.

Although I like the Florian bet more, I still take Caro at -175 in this fight.

Hummungus, I agree with pretty much every assesment you made (except for a few fights) so I will just add a few things I'm thinking:

Boetsch-Hammil
I really want to see the Boetsch-Matyushenko fight before I make a prediction here. Anybody have the fight or has seen it that can give insight?

Diaz-Pellegrino
This is a very close fight and hard to predict I feel. If the fight was only 1 round I'd pick Pellegrino just about every time. He's got better wrestling and is plenty competent on the ground to control diaz on the ground and to work towards a decision. On the feet I think he'll slightly get the worst of it though simply because Diaz uses his reach well and has enough of a chin to weather Pellegrino if he lands. I don't see too much of the fight taking place on the feet though. That said I think Pellegrino has terrible gas and fades badly. He faded badly against Stevenson and he had an EPIC meltdown against Drew Fickett who he was schooling for 2 and a half rounds before giving up his back. On the other hand Diaz seems to get better as the fight goes on and has a terrific gas tank. In my opinion a correct line would have Diaz at -130 or so.

Maynard-Edgar
You hit the nail on the head Hummungus, Maynard is just tooooo slow to win this fight. His only real chance is to land a haymaker and put Edgar out. Seeing as how Bocek knocked Edgar down this certainly is possibly (though Edgar was almost immediately back up) but Maynard's striking consists of wild swinging hooks while Edgar can throw straight down the pipe move well and has very good defense. Some people are making way too much of the fact that Maynard is a better wrestler and hence a bad style matchup. That would only make sense if Edgar only knew how to wrestle. Edgar is a much better striker, a zillion times better at scrambling and fighting in the transitions, and will literally be too quick for Maynard. Even if Maynard takes Edgar down, Edgar won't just lay on his back and will be able to initiate a scramble where he can escape or sweep. Moreover Edgar is good enough to take Maynard down and control him. After all Maynard was taken down and controlled for half a round by Denis Siver of all people. The fight might be competitive early as Maynard comes out like gangbusters but eventually he will start to fade and Edgar will pull away and win a clear cut decision as he starts to wear Maynard down and out. I think anything better than -400 would be a good bet on Edgar.

Houston-Irvin
I agree, whoever lands first wins. And I have no idea who that might be.

Guida-Schiavo
Schiavo is going to be thoruoughly smoked in this fight. I imagine it'll be a lot like the Melendez Lemley fight. Schiavo has only 1 win against someone with a winning record and has been embarrassed by anybody that was descent. Guida in reality should be -900 in this fight (not that I would actually take that bet).

Karo-Alves
I gave my opinion on this fight in another thread and am too lazy to find it. In essense I think Karo will win a close decision but I don't like the line.

Thiago is a black belt? Are you sure thats true. I heard he was only a kickboxer when he came to ATT. Plus I always thought of Thiago as a patient (almost counter) striker rather than an aggressive one. He doesn't exactly stalk people too much. Plus you say Karo doesn't have the advantage on the ground? I mean, Thiago got submitted by Spencer Fisher who is a lightweight.

lolz at backing Alves

C'mon Thremp, you're better than this.

Alves is a BJJ purple belt, under Marcus Aurellio.

His background is primarily in Muay Thai.

-P

Okay. Fine. It was a pathetically weak troll.

thremp looks to me like u do very little betting and very much talking

Other way around. I'll probably make a real post including some figure for my year at year end and explanation of what I do, why I do it, etc etc.


But mostly 2p2 is a great way to 1) release tilt 2) avoid doing my acct work

But is says he is a black belt on Wikipedia...so you know its true.

In the Maynard-Edgar fight I have to go with Maynard for no other reason than that I bumped into him and Tyson Griffin at the airport yesterday. I think it will take a little longer than his last fight of 9 seconds, but Maynard's wrestling is outstanding and his striking and bjj are not bad either.

Maynard's last fight went the distance with Denis Siver.

You are right, I was thinking of his fight in UFN 11 agaist Joe Veras where he won in 9 seconds, just 1 second slower than Tom Selleck's win over Thomas Ramirez in UFC 8.

some more lines are out now. sportsbook.com has edgar and din at -160, both of which I like. Irvin at +200 which i like. theres no way irvin doesn't land the big punch first less than a third of the time. besides, no matter how bad irvin's ground game is its probably better than alexander's so there's always that. they also have Boetsch at +160 which could be good except i still haven't seen the boetsch matyushenko fight or heard of how it exactly went. even if hamill employed a typical vladimir type gameplan he's still not nearly as good as vladdy.

Writeup from MMAweekly


Vladimir Matyushenko (205) vs. Tim Boetsch (206)
Rd 1: Matyushenko goes for more stand-up than many are used to seeing from him and he actually gets taken down a couple of times in the round but reverses easily and gets a few takedowns of his own.
MMAWeekly scores Rd 1 for Vladdy Matyushenko 10-9

Rd 2: Matyushenko secures a takedown early in the round maintains side control through most of the 4 minutes. Boetsch does get back to his feet and tries to pull a guillotine choke late in the round but Vladdy escapes.
MMAWeekly scores Rd 2 for Vladdy Matyushenko 10-9

Rd 3: Another series of takedowns round out the third session for Matyushenko, althought Boetsch is a surprisingly game opponent for the heavily favored Matyushenko

Winner: Vladdy Matyushenko by unanimous decision.


Boetsch was a late replacement, taking the fight on 3-4 days notice. He had 2 weeks notice for the heath fight.
My Bets:

Alves over Karo, 50 at +145
Edgar over Maynard 20 at -200
Irvin over Houston 20 at +195
Boetsch over Hamill 20 at +160

I think Irvin is a fabulous bet if you don't mind the fact that half the time you'll lose your money. the other half of the time, you'll triple it.

Edgar is a very safe bet, I think. I just don't see any way that Maynard can touch him, aside from a fluke injury or the proverbial perfect punch.

Boetsch is just a good pick at those odds. He only recently started training full time, and went the distance with the janitor while training part-time and with only 3 or 4 days notice.

As always, my entire wagering history is here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...3j9KbIHuvYYxTA

Slight value on Pellegrino at +150? I'd say probably worth a .66u bet.

If only I hadn't bridge-jumped Hendo over Siva.

thanks hummungus

I would definitely agree with you on pellegrino, after reviewing his fights. Too bad I don't have anything left around to throw down on him.

No problem. Be sure to look at my betting record before taking my advice too seriously, though.

I have

edgar @ -175
Kurt @ +150
Boetch @ +160
Alves @ +195


GL

I like Pelligrino and alves for a small bet and Kenflo i really like at anywhere in the -200 range