FYP

Some notes, mostly slight line shifts.

Lesnar is still available at -230.

MannyG/Emerson line has moved to -285/+250

Maia/MacDonald line has moved to -275/+220

Huerta has risen slightly from +125 to +135.

GSP/Fitch moved to -300/+280

I hope a mod edits the title again so it doesn't look like I don't know how to spell herring.

What are the websites that show the lines across the different books? PM me links if its not entirely appropriate to post.

So glad I reloaded to take advantage of the early GSP line at -220 after blowing my roll on Lesnar at the open. Speaking of which, how do people anticipate the Lesnar line moving going out the next week? Im going to have to arb out more than half my exposure and want to find the balance between maximizing profit and greed.

http://www.bestfightodds.com

does anybody think theres any play on GSP?
GSP/Fitch moved to -300/+280

I think a small one. Much bigger awesomer play when the line opened.

Bump for this weekend and more line shifts.

Lesnar still at -231 at Pinny, most other books have him a bigger favorite.

MannyG/Emerson moved to -300/+280

ARB ARB ARB ARB ARB
Pinny Maia -226
SBG MacD +240
No idea how many people have money at those two but if you do...

Fitch is +290 now at SBG.

More odds for smaller fights.

Cheick Kongo -450, Dan Evensen +400
Chris Wilson -325, Steve Bruno +311
Luke Cummo -135, Tamden McCrory +125
Andre Gusmao -210, Jon Jones +205
Ben Saunders -240, Ryan Thomas +251 ARB if you have Pinny/sportsbook

For the newer lines, I like a unit on Jon Jones. Both Jones and Gusmao are young undefeated and making UFC debuts. Gusmao has a little better resume but it's hard to say he's that much of a favorite when they both only have 5 fights and neither of them has ever seen a top 50 guy.

I also make take a smallbet flier on ryan thomas because I think saunders is so overrated, although I don't know much about thomas. Considering doing the same thing for Dan Evensen because Kongo has shown such awful gameplanning and utter one-dimensionality. Evenson is 10-2 and has fought some bums but he has a kickboxing background. Kongo is probably better at Evensens strength than evensen is but he's such a bad overall fighter that I make take a .5 or so unit flyer on dan. just considering it for now.

I like Huerta over Florian.

I did my homework, watched the tapes.

Quick breakdown of each fighter:

Huerta: Very good sub defense (grappled with Alberto Crane, who is a world-class grappler, their entire fight, and beat his ass)

Good, but not Hunt-level chin (guida hurt and dropped him a couple times, but he always recovered)

Good hands, decent power in them. Good kicks to head, body, legs, good power in them as well.

Serviceable wrestling, very good scrambling, strong ability to hurt people from all positions. Will go for finishes from strikes or submissions, regardless of opponent or position (threw up a pretty good armbar on Crane)


Florian: Overrated grappling (nearly got kneebarred by mishima, doesn't threaten much with subs from any position, doesn't have an airtight guard)

Technically good striking, but no power in his hands. Excellent low kicks, but they're overdeveloped compared to the rest of his game, and it will be hard for him to set them up if that's the only attack Huerta has to respect. Florian throws a lot of headkicks, but they're poor.

Finishes almost every recent fight by taking and maintaining a dominant position and simply overwhelming his opponent with successions of strikes, no single one of which is particularly hard or damaging, but they cannot reverse position or stop the damage, so the hits keep coming.

Kenny also tends to get a little overexcited and throw fouls or strikes that go foul.


The fight:

Huerta closes distance and gets a bit wild with his striking. This could work to his detriment, but Florian's punches can't hurt him. Huetra's aggressive pace will frustrate Florian, who can get overwhelmed and shell up. Kenny does much better when he is the one dictating the pace of the fight, which will not be the case vs. Huerta. Huerta's wrestling is plenty good enough to avoid most of kenny's takedown attempts.

I haven't seen Huerta get a lot of leg kicks thrown at him, but he will be able to kick Florian back and throw big punches to brush him back. Unless Florian can work a vastly improved game of staying on the outside and punishing the legs while avoiding all exchanges, he will not win on the feet. Huerta has enough variety of strikes and power that he could hurt and finish Florian at any point. Kenny will have to out-point Huerta to win a standup fight (barring another fluke knee injury like the one that gifted him the Din Thomas fight) and that will be very difficult for a fighter with only one powerful strike in his arsenal.

While Kenny may end up on top in a scramble (huerta fights very loose and often ends up out of position) Huerta has a fabulous ability to sweep, roll, scramble, reclaim guard, and otherwise get out of bad positions. It's very unlikely that Florian can hold position long enough or hit hard enough to just accumulate pitty-pat punches on the ground until Huerta can't take anymore. Florian has shown little inclination to take risks and possibly give up position to even try for a submission, so, given Huerta's underrated grappling ability, I don't expect him to sub Huerta unless it's one of those situations where a fighter trying to GnP absolutely throws themself into a deep triangle or something similar, which is very unlikely.

Huerta will dictate the pace. Both fighters are very well conditioned, but it's a question of how much damage Florian can soak up, and he may just take too much and get stopped late, but a bloody dragged-out decision is what I see as more likely. Huerta wins this fight, and I've put money on it.

as for betting on Thomas over Saunders, you have to consider a few things:

1) All the TUF guys are training professionally full-time for basically the first time in their lives, so it's not unreasonable to expect a bit of a 'bounce' in skill from them and leaps and bounds improvement from their previous performances.

2) Thomas' record is hugely padded with cans and nobodies.

Humungus, I see a flaw in your logic.

You point out (correctly) that Kenny has won many fights by simply dominating position and never giving it up and throwing a high volume of strikes.

I think we'd both agree that Kenny is very good at holding dominant positions.

Huerta, as you point out, often gives up dominant positions to inferior fighters. He has good escapability but KenFlo's is exceptionally good at not letting you escape.

I also tend to think Huerta's stand up is very overrated. Fighting all of those 0-0 UFC fighters made his strikes look better than they really are imo. Clay guida was his only challenge and he got solidly beaten standing for 2 rounds.

1 is often true, not universally true. Many times you just see guys who aren't that talented beating guys who also aren't that talented and they get very overrated, especially recent seasons where depth has gone way down.

Ben Saunders fought nobody ever and beat an 0-1 Daniel Barrera in the TUF finale. I think that record is being massively overrated, enough for me to take a .3 or .5 flyer on a guy i don't respect that much or know too much about.

if anything huerta's wrestling and grappling are overrated. guida didn't have much trouble at all controlling him on the ground and he was even being outwrestled by doug evans making his UFC debut, and i think evans is a guy that can fight at 145 if i remember correctly

The Thomas/Saunders arb is also available for us players

Ryan Thomas +251 pinny or +250 wsex
Ben Saunders -240 sportsbook

isn't wsex limits only $300 on ufc? arb only worth $8 to tie up $1041 for 3 days

might be mor evalue in just letting it ride on the softer side

My writeup isn't live on the site yet, but here it is pre-publish:
http://mmajunkie.com/news/5003/perfo...for-ufc-87.mma

Performify's Picks for my public record:

* Georges St. Pierre (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
* Brock Lesnar (-240) : 1.2u to win .5u
* Kenny Florian (-145) : 1.45u to win 1u
* Rob Emerson (+275) : .2u to win .55u
* Steve Bruno (+260): .5u to win 1.3u

Results of 5-0 for +5.4 units on Performify's Picks for "EliteXC: Unfinished Business" brings my recent running total (since UFC 75) for my public predictions to 49-40 for +19.375 units.

-P

Perf: When did florian become dangerous off his back?

Obviously disagree with you on that one.
I definitely like the Emerson pick. Hopefully the K-taro fight wasn't his peak performance.
(I'm still trying to figure out what conclusions to draw from the Wiman/Tavares fight)

did they fight a second time or something? cause in the fight i remember, the standup was fairly close through two before clay faked the shot and caught huerta with the hook as he was sprawling (then poured on the gnP) at the end of the second.

1) v. dangerous with elbows from his back
2) good sweeps and reversals
3) legit BJJ blackbelt

I use the term dangerous from his back not to mean he constantly throws a ton of subs from his back, but just to say that he's not someone who gets on his back and the fight is over. Huerta can't just put Florian on his back and pound away. he's got to worry significantly about the elbows, especially with the rule relaxations on elbows from the bottom, and he's really got to worry about getting swept or reversed. Not to mention that Florian does have solid sub skills, as well, he is a Gracie Barra BJJ black belt.

-P

There was no chance of him winning the fight without stoppage. Best hope was a 10-8 pozzing for a draw.

The other question is; is Florian's record any more impressive? To my mind, he doesn't have a single victory over anyone as impressive as Guida.

Neither guy is top 10 right now, of course, but comparing the two, I think that Huerta has actually beaten the tougher fighters, even if many of them are done now.

And I think you're looking at the Alberto Crane fight wrong. Crane is a one-dimensional grappler, but he's a phenomenal grappler, and Huerta grappled with him the entire fight, and survived (and even threatened subs on him).

Huerta opponents UFC records

Dent: 0-2
Halverson: 0-2
Garcia: 1-2
Evans: 0-2
Crane: 0-2
Guida: 3-3

Overall, 4-13 with one good win.

Kenny Florian opponents UFC records (wins) (not counting Din Thomas)

Alex Karalexis 1-2
Kit Cope 0-1
Sam Stout 2-3
Mishima 0-2
Alvin Robinson 1-2
Joe Lauzon 3-1

7-13 in the UFC, two good wins.

Although neither profile is great, Kenny's wins are better. Some of his guys had legit records as well in Shooto, DEEP, etc. but lost in the UFC.