My plays for UFC 105...

Brandon Vera 2u to win 2.6u (+130)
Brandon Vera 4u to win 4.4u (+110)
Mike Swick 1.8u to win 1u (-180)
Dennis Kang 1.11u to win 1u (-111)
Paul Taylor 0.5u to win 1.05u (+210)
Matt Brown 1.5u to win 1u (-150)

Current public total stands at 18-3 for 27.25 units
Good luck everybody.

doing my thing:

http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/11/f...r-ufc-105.html

my plays:
Brandon Vera: 2.1u at (-105) to win 2u
Denis Kang: 1.25u at (-125) to win 1u
Dan Hardy: .5u at (+190) to win .95u

Nice write up.

surprised so many people like vera, i really don't think he is mentally strong enough to beat couture. i know couture doesn't have the reach that tim sylvia does so maybe vera can work the outside game some, but i really think his fights against sylvia and werdum showed that vera's wrestling is pretty much all hype.

i've enjoyed reading humungus' write-ups lately but saying that vera will be able to continue to inflict damage in the clinch against randy couture is lol bad imo. i think the most likely way for the this fight to go down is with vera spending way too much time with his back against the cage getting bullied for his hesitant striking to make much of an impact at all.

i'm a little bit concerned with how couture's old ass body will handle cutting to 205, but other than that i think this is a really good matchup for him

I think it is "lol bad" not to think that Vera will destroy him in the clinch. Seriously, you think that it is "lol bad"? Seriously?

seriously.

Good writeup as usual.

Obviously disagree on Kelly/Siver. I think Siver has the firepower to go toe-to-toe Kelly on the feet, and the wrestling advantage to dictate where the fight takes place. Siver's submission defense has been as issue in the past, but I think he's shored up that weakness well enough by now. I haven't seen a crisp submission game from Kelly to think he will pose a huge threat, but I do agree it's a possibility.

Also, I don't really agree that Aaron Riley is all battered and broken despite the numerous wars he's been in.

where are people getting the idea that siver has good wrestling? i'm a fan of his, but i think his wrestling is a pretty big hole in his game and the reason why he is likely to lose to kelly

I totally understand where you're coming from.

I'm trying to say that Vera will be hitting couture in the clinch and doing damage, although Couture will be able to dump him down to the mat from there. The kind of situation where Vera throws a good, hard knee or lands an elbow, and then gets dumped.

With what I see as Couture's weak chin, that's relevant, I think.

was about to say vera by knee to the face but its been said I guess.

i bet on sportsbook.com and they won't let me bet more than 500 on any mma/boxing match. is this the max for everyone or is there a way to get it raised?

Its my max too, probably everyones. If you do a live chat with support they'll allow you to do an overlimit wager, but only on the day of the fight. I've had no problem getting 3k down.

yeah ive done that actually but when i tried to bet on fedor, they only let me put down 1k

They gave a quick yes to my 3k on Nog over Mir. Guess they knew something that I didn't.

I love sportsbook, even though its supposedly a D- book, I've had no trouble there. I find it annoying that they go by maximum risk, not max win. $500 on a -600 line just seems like a waste of time usually.

Going very basic on this card. Bisping because home field advantage is worth 3 points and he's the fighter the UFC would rather have win and Vera because Randy is almost 50.

Not sure if this is UK specific but I'm sure one of you guys can check....

Telegraph (Gath Davies blog) is streaming the Taylor vs Hathawya fight from 8pm UK time: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/oth...ship-Live.html

at what number does Hardy become +ev? You all think it's that clear cut?

I've totally stayed away from that fight. For whatever reason I have no idea how that fight will play out. Every outcome seems like a possibility in this one.

Humungus made a small play on Hardy. A few other posters have larger plays on Swick.

The UFC is a business that has been trying hard to gain traction in the UK for the past couple years. You can look at Bisping's fight vs. Matt Hamill in the O2 arena if you want to see a questionable decision given to the Brit. Of course we have another event in the UK and Bisping's on the card again. If the fight goes the distance I want my money on him, that's all I know.

Plus his stock is low now after a brutal loss to Hendo but I thought he looked pretty good in that fight before going to sleep.

The UFC has ZERO influence over the fights themselves. The judges and referees are all hired by the athletic commissions. They don't work for the UFC. These fights aren't fixed.

Having concerns that British judges may score a decision more favorably towards the British fighter is a legitimate one. It is also a concern I have in my numerous bets against British fighters on this card. But to say a fighter has an edge because "the UFC" wants one fighter to win over another is ignorant. The judges don't work for the UFC.

I really wish I knew how to make a gif of Bisping shooting on Hendo, or getting rag-dolled against the fence, or, well, pretty much any other moment from that fight.

Of the 3 judges that scored Hamill/Bisping, 2 of the judges were American and 1 was British. The 2 American judges scored the bout for Bisping, the lone British judge scored the bout for Hamill.

My plays:

7.5u on Riddle (-250) to win 3u
3u on Hathaway (-200) to win 1.5u
1.6u on Swick (-160) to win 1u
1u on Gustafsson (+130) to win 1.3u
.3u on Delgado (+325) to win .975u
.5u on Bisping (+105) to win .525u

I got a little down on Swick at -180. Wish I had done more. I don't want any over -200.