Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitcoin
You mentioned that you think TOR vs NYY is "basically a coin flip", implying that you think the fair line on TOR should be around +100; thus you gladly took the +160 odds on TOR. If you are willing to, please include what you have determined as the fair line for all bets you post. I take a strict quantitative approach myself and thus am always curious what someone has determined the fair line of a matchup to be.
My model considered the game about a 41% chance for the Jays to win. However, that's a far cry from calling this a 50-50 flip.
Not to mention OP is using lol factors like Cole losing once to the Jays in last year's 60 game season and Ryu being 2-0 vs the Yanks. He actually asked non ironically if Cole is that much better than Ryu!
Ryu fWAR since 2018 = 8.6
Cole fWAR since 2018 = 16.7
Ryu certainly is no slouch, but the Jays have a LOT of question marks this year:
Starting pitching
Middle relief
(closer just lost for season)
Catching, especially offensive side