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Old 04-01-2021, 10:26 PM   #26
TheHip41
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Toronto won

Suck it fish
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Old 04-02-2021, 11:52 AM   #27
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
Like I said I have successfully bet baseball for decades. I was one of the most active regulars in this forum back when it first started. We had more than a few very good discussions back in the day.

But no skin off of my balls. I haven't posted here in years and can easily continue not posting here for years. Good luck to you all! I like intelligent discussion and it appears there will be none here.
Extraordinary claims like this require evidence.

Like someone else said, your OP does seem pretty square. You refer to ERA as if it's a valid stat to be using for sportsbetting. However, by far the most square thing of all was acting like Ryu is in the same stratosphere as Cole.

Post all of your picks in here for the season, and I'd be confident in saying that you are going to be -EV.
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Old 04-02-2021, 12:00 PM   #28
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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You mentioned that you think TOR vs NYY is "basically a coin flip", implying that you think the fair line on TOR should be around +100; thus you gladly took the +160 odds on TOR. If you are willing to, please include what you have determined as the fair line for all bets you post. I take a strict quantitative approach myself and thus am always curious what someone has determined the fair line of a matchup to be.
My model considered the game about a 41% chance for the Jays to win. However, that's a far cry from calling this a 50-50 flip.

Not to mention OP is using lol factors like Cole losing once to the Jays in last year's 60 game season and Ryu being 2-0 vs the Yanks. He actually asked non ironically if Cole is that much better than Ryu!

Ryu fWAR since 2018 = 8.6
Cole fWAR since 2018 = 16.7

Ryu certainly is no slouch, but the Jays have a LOT of question marks this year:

Starting pitching
Middle relief
(closer just lost for season)
Catching, especially offensive side
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Old 04-02-2021, 12:06 PM   #29
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Without to far into the weeds I will try to explain my process. First I just do a baseline based off of team a winning % versus team b winning %. This is the base that I weigh heaviest and then will add in other factors to calculate my final line.

The base formula is:
A = Team A wining %
B = Team B winning %
A*(1-B)/[A*(1-B)++B*(1-A)]
This gives the percentage that team A will beat team B which can easily be converted into a moneyline.

I also run similar calculations based on team records when starters A or B start. I will factor in road vs home (although I find this mostly meaningless) and handedness. Meaning does one team over or underperform against the handedness of the starting pitcher. I find most pitcher vs. batter stats samples to be too small but will peruse them.

Once I do all of this stuff I come up with what I expect the fair line to be. Sometimes it's right on and sometimes it's way off. When it is way off I bet it.

Sorry, but strategy is terrible for the following reasons:

1) strength of schedule is always different for each team. a .600% team in a soft division probably isn't better than a .495 team in a strong division

2) road vs. home team advantage is very much a valid stat here

There's no way a strategy that weighs heavily on relative win % would do anything but hemmorage money to the books.
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Old 04-02-2021, 01:19 PM   #30
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Originally Posted by VeniceMerchant View Post
My model considered the game about a 41% chance for the Jays to win. However, that's a far cry from calling this a 50-50 flip.

Not to mention OP is using lol factors like Cole losing once to the Jays in last year's 60 game season and Ryu being 2-0 vs the Yanks. He actually asked non ironically if Cole is that much better than Ryu!

Ryu fWAR since 2018 = 8.6
Cole fWAR since 2018 = 16.7

Ryu certainly is no slouch, but the Jays have a LOT of question marks this year:

Starting pitching
Middle relief
(closer just lost for season)
Catching, especially offensive side
I had asked some questions on that game too, mainly in regards to the heinous "is Cole really that much better than Ryu" statement and got no answer. Comes here asking to talk about baseball and his picks, only engages with people who shittalk him.

*sigh*
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Old 04-02-2021, 01:29 PM   #31
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

where are today's bets at after 2-3 day where assuming 1 unit per play -0.76 units despite pulling out yanks and brewers in extras lol
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Old 04-02-2021, 02:14 PM   #32
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

2-3 is a nothing sample size. The bigger issue here is that OP is pretending to be a longterm winner at baseball which ofc is 100% in his imagination.
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Old 04-02-2021, 03:15 PM   #33
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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2-3 is a nothing sample size. The bigger issue here is that OP is pretending to be a longterm winner at baseball which ofc is 100% in his imagination.
clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
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Old 04-02-2021, 04:20 PM   #34
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
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Old 04-02-2021, 05:10 PM   #35
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
well when you start off with claims like Ryu = Cole so the game is a flip, I'm not rly sure what u expect to happen, adieu!
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Old 04-02-2021, 06:44 PM   #36
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
your*

but yeah, it did.
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Old 04-02-2021, 06:51 PM   #37
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
Truthfully, if you are going to be a part of intelligent baseball conversation, it's going to involve an intelligent baseball person explaining things to you.

You've basically shown that your knowledge of sports betting is at a beginner level, yet you tried to portray yourself here as a long-term pro.

If you're serious about learning how to beat baseball, head on Google Scholar and search predictive analytics for sports betting. There are hundreds of smart University students that create pretty advanced models and beat MLB and other sports for modest or sometimes impressive ROI's.

Personally, I've easily read 100. Not a single one of them would ever suggest that win % vs win % could ever beat any book in existance. I know you don't want to hear any of this. Just be sure not to bet money you're not totally ok with losing.
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Old 04-04-2021, 01:19 PM   #38
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Hey Mrbaseball, what bets are you looking at today?

San Diego’s price of -199 today is free money since they’re 3-0 for a 100% win rate. Our bet only needs to win 66.9% to breakeven.
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Old 04-23-2021, 05:00 PM   #39
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Lol this forum ... One reason why I still come back here sometimes for fun. Why don’t y’all have a thread and post mlb picks daily to see who is wrong and who is more wrong? I’ve been betting baseball for a while and let me tell ya, OP isn’t totally off. That is one approach that works for him. I can tell his winning percentage probably is about 45-55% long term not ONE day and of course there are bad years and good years for him as well. Can’t just judge the guy for one-day picks, come on now, grow up. Hey OP, come to mlb picks and discussion thread, share picks with ppl like I do, what you gonna lose?
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Old 04-23-2021, 08:32 PM   #40
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Lol this forum ... One reason why I still come back here sometimes for fun. Why donít yíall have a thread and post mlb picks daily to see who is wrong and who is more wrong? Iíve been betting baseball for a while and let me tell ya, OP isnít totally off. That is one approach that works for him. I can tell his winning percentage probably is about 45-55% long term not ONE day and of course there are bad years and good years for him as well. Canít just judge the guy for one-day picks, come on now, grow up. Hey OP, come to mlb picks and discussion thread, share picks with ppl like I do, what you gonna lose?
Haven't looked at this forum in while since my unwelcome return but I've been drinking Doing pretty good so far with an 18% roi so far on the season. Baseball is basically drawing to a flush. Sometimes you hit it and sometimes you don't. There are no "sure" things, it's just a compilation of small edges. The goal is to have the proper pot odds to draw. I believe my approach gives me the right odds. But this forum which used to be great just isn't worth the effort now.
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:00 PM   #41
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Hey OP, come to mlb picks and discussion thread, share picks with ppl like I do, what you gonna lose?
lol! I just looked at that thread which wasn't around when the season started. Discussion??????????????? No discussion in that thread Just lists of picks with no reasoning whatsoever. I love to talk strategy and reasons for why a bet bet is worth taking. I have always had disdain for pick listers. Tell me why you are making the pick or GTFO. When this forum first started way back when I would write up detailed analysis of plays I really liked. I know exactly why I make every play I make and can explain it statistically.
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Old 04-23-2021, 10:40 PM   #42
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

baseball, c'mon now, you just sound bitter now, you were definitely treated unfairly and sb forum can be really elitist and douchey at times but now you're making yourself no different

he spoke in great detail about using game logs with poisson to determine to which sides to bet

there isn't much more analysis because the algo doesn't whisper to him it's process, it just pumps out results

fansrajoke also posts there and with him you're indeed correct as he doesn't explain why or how, for instance i don't know if he's modeling or what, but he's an upbeat and positive poster, in fact the same guy who was positively encouraging you to stick with it
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:07 PM   #43
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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baseball, c'mon now, you just sound bitter now, you were definitely treated unfairly and sb forum can be really elitist and douchey at times but now you're making yourself no different

he spoke in great detail about using game logs with poisson to determine to which sides to bet

there isn't much more analysis because the algo doesn't whisper to him it's process, it just pumps out results

fansrajoke also posts there and with him you're indeed correct as he doesn't explain why or how, for instance i don't know if he's modeling or what, but he's an upbeat and positive poster, in fact the same guy who was positively encouraging you to stick with it
I just think if you make a bet you should know why and if you post it you should explain why. If you can't give a reason to make a bet why post it? Like I said I have been in this game for decades. I have seen pick listers come and go. I have no interest with people who just post picks. Plus why post a record? Record means dick in money line betting. 15-12 can be good or bad depending on how much wood you are laying or getting. Underdog bettors can crush with losing records and favorite bettors can get demolished with winning records.

Bottom line? This forum is a joke
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:47 PM   #44
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
Haven't looked at this forum in while since my unwelcome return but I've been drinking Doing pretty good so far with an 18% roi so far on the season.
After running away with your tail between your legs when you got challenged last time for making big claims, it's good to know all it really took was a few drinks on a Friday night for you to grow your balls back and start back up with the big talk, and diss 2 people in a row who were trying to be nice to you in the process.

Please, continue drinking through the whole weekend and enlighten all us jokers here with your rigorous statistical narrative so we can learn how to bet MLB with an 18% ROI too.
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Old 04-24-2021, 04:02 PM   #45
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

OP I’m sorry but that attitude is wrong. I’m not gonna spoon feed you how and why I end up with the picks. Follow my picks and figure it out yourself just like if you post your picks, I wouldn’t ask you how and why, more like do your own due diligence. It’s free but it ain’t free you know what I mean?
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Old 04-24-2021, 05:50 PM   #46
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Baseball has become such a quant-driven betting market that I do feel it has created room for guys with solid intuition and feel to be able to zag when the analytic guys are zigging. I have so much respect for anyone who can beat baseball over the season. Esteemed professional Rufus Peabody can't do it. Only one guy has done it in a public fashion in this forum's history. He went on to become the greatest Jeopardy champion in the history of the show--Crockpot. Also, RickJ. It's elite status. Please post your plays with full record accounting and if you can maintain a winning record over the course of a season you will have earned a lot of respect.
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Old 04-25-2021, 12:17 PM   #47
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Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

mrbaseball's been around a long time so I know that he knows that I know that he knows that respect in this business must be earned (standard 4th level poker thinking). Too many kids these days aren't willing to put in the hard work of posting plays and tracking results. He knows this. So I wanted to extend to a personal invitation to join Crowdsource Syndicate as our exclusive MLB sides handicapper.
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