So I've noticed that some (all?) books leave their lines for the 1q and 3q posted, even after we know who has won the coin toss, and who will get the ball first to start the 1q and 3q. I bet this in the AFC title game, and ended up taking the Colts 1q because they were to receive the opening kickoff. There was about a 5 minute window to still place the bet.

Yesterday, I took the Patriots to score first, after we knew they would receive the opening kick. The line did not change.

However, the more I think about it, the more I am starting to think there may not be an edge, and actually it might make more sense to go against whoever gets the ball first. I remember seeing a chart that showed expected pt from starting yard line and down/distance. I assume the average start position is about the 25 yard line or so, and 1st and 10 from your own 25 would seem to be breakeven or even slightly - as far as whoever scores next. I did see an in game line yesterday with Seattle at their own 14 or so yard line, 1st and 10, and 5dimes listed them as -120 to score next if I remember correctly. So there could be huge edges here, if you have a team that is +150 to score first (happens a lot in college especially) and you know they are getting the ball first. I guess a good way to look at it would be to look at a 2nd half prop line of "who will score next" which 5d tends to post with their halftime lines, and compare to the original line.

Any experience or thoughts here would help, I'm looking into this for next season and hoping it's a flaw that bookies haven't realized yet.

AncapInJacksonville

well it WAS an edge. although you just opened other doors.

?

where is the private message option? I may well be able to give you some thoughts

Cheers

You might have to have 50+ posts to pm, not sure

Ok, will find a rubbish thread nobody uses and post 50+

I play all 3 american sports and keep things very simple, it is an edge in itself. Do things the other 95% are not doing.

2ez