Your parlay pays +596 and you conservatively estimate that it hits 33% of the time (a nice conservative estimate). To maximize the growth of your bankroll you should bet 21% of your bankroll on the parlay. Here is a website taht will do the calculation for you.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

The idea is pretty simple write an equation for the expected growth of your bankroll based on the payout, your estimate of it hitting and the size of your bet. Input the first two and maximize the function with respect to the third. See:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...n-part-ii.html

Obivously you need to be confident in your estimate of the bet hitting for kelly betting to be a helpful tool.

85, 85, 94, 96, 95 % lets say

now someones gonna tell me that these percentages are too high.


perhaps thats because MOST have no business claiming these numbers

Sticky this please.

BAB,

Remember like six pages ago when i suggested one of the best things you could do would be to take the time to read and understand the FAQ?? You really need to do that, still. Read it. Read everything linked. Read the two books recommended. And then read the FAQ again.

As taken from the FAQ:

# What part of my bankroll should I bet for each game?
# A commonly accepted guideline is 1%-2% of your bankroll. This is generally referred to as a "unit".
# Why 1%-2%? A unit size greater than 2% dramatically increases your risk of ruin (risk of going broke). If you dont care about going broke, use whatever size units you're comfortable with.

Should I use flat betting or change my bet size each game?
# If you can accurately quantify your edge on a bet, it is mathematically correct to vary your bet size. However, in practice (a) it is often hard to quantify your edge accurately and (b) the edges in sports betting are generally small enough that you don’t lose a huge amount by failing to vary your bet sizes on common point spread wagers. For these reasons, flat betting is best for most people even though it is not optimal. You can use what is known as "Kelly Betting", which is betting a certain percentage of your bankroll based on how much your edge is. If you are new, stick to the guidelines of 1-2% of your bankroll. If you know you are a winning sports bettor, then do a Google search of "Kelly Betting".


Doing as suggested in the later returns the following page as #1 in Google:
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

that page has two links on it which explain everything in more detail than you can probably handle on the first pass. But it's where you should start.

This just placed now



Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers 2/4/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +13 -525 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers/Atlanta Hawks 2/4/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 195 -275 for Game
Select #3 : NBA Basketball
Dallas Mavericks 2/4/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +10 -340 for Game
Select #4 : NBA Basketball
Dallas Mavericks/Orlando Magic 2/4/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 205 -350 for Game
Select #5 : NCAA Basketball
Louisville 2/4/2008 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +10 -440 for Game
Select #6 : NCAA Basketball
Louisville/Marquette 2/4/2008 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 145 -400 for Game
Amount : Risking 160.00 To Win 502.99 USD


Wager has been accepted!
Ticket Number - 18402400
Your new amount available is 1,100.005 USD. After placing your last play, you must press here to review your pending plays and ensure your wagers were placed correctly.

P-

Txs for this post. Haven't had a chance to look at it all yet but I certainly will.

I would recommend that you chart a distribution of closing lines against actual results. See what 1 SD is in points in both NBA and NCAA basketball. Then you can see just how gross laying -500 or -1000 or -3000 is for these bets. Add in the value you are losing in the parlay.

If you cant do the math because you havent reached 10th grade yet, ask your parents before you lose all their money.

You are posting in a forum of accomplished sports bettors that are posting countdowns til busto. That should prob tell you something. Of course nothing like being grounded to learn a hard lesson.

Interesting development

The 6 team parlay I played earlier is going to win unless the Hawks game goes over 195.

Its halftime and its at 94.

The total for the second half is 93.5.

If I straight bet the over to win 160, I could win both if it lands between 188-195.

And if it does go over 195 this way, I dont lose the original 160.

Curious what people think of this.

Placed right now


Wager type : Straight Bet

Sport : NBA Basketball
Selection : Philadelphia 76ers/Atlanta Hawks 2/4/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points OVER 93½ -110 for 2nd Half
Amount : Risking 176.00 To Win 160.00 USD

Wager has been accepted!
Ticket Number - 18403808
Your new amount available is 924.005 USD. After placing your last play, you must press here to review your pending plays and ensure your wagers were placed correctly.

Win, orlando game was a push at exactly 205

Amount Paid: 515.66

NEW BET PLACED


Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Denver Nuggets 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +9 -310 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Denver Nuggets/Portland Trailblazers 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 210 -230 for Game
Select #3 : NBA Basketball
Seattle Supersonics 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +8 -370 for Game
Select #4 : NBA Basketball
Chicago Bulls/Seattle Supersonics 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 200 -240 for Game
Amount : Risking 143.96 To Win 347.64 USD


Wager has been accepted!
Ticket Number - 18406465
Your new amount available is 1,295.705 USD. After placing your last play, you must press here to review your pending plays and ensure your wagers were placed correctly.

Some of you just dont get it.

Thats fine.

Im not asking you to pick my bets.

IM the one making the picks.

New wager placed


Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball
Gonzaga/Saint Mary's CA 2/4/2008 11:00:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points OVER 134 -325 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Saint Mary's CA 2/4/2008 11:00:01 PM - (EST)
Spread -1 -175 for Game
Amount : Risking 81.00 To Win 85.45 USD


Wager has been accepted!
Ticket Number - 18407728
Your new amount available is 1,214.705 USD. After placing your last play, you must press here to review your pending plays and ensure your wagers were placed correctly.

Ok so what were the odds that I was gonna hit this bet?

Not good? Oh well.

Looks like someone has an uncanny ability to defy the odds.

FINAL BET PLACED TODAY



Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Denver Nuggets 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +4 -115 for 2nd Half
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Denver Nuggets/Portland Trailblazers 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 101 -110 for 2nd Half
Select #3 : NBA Basketball
Chicago Bulls 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Spread +1 -115 for 2nd Half
Select #4 : NBA Basketball
Chicago Bulls/Seattle Supersonics 2/4/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 98 -110 for 2nd Half
Amount : Risking 50.65 To Win 586.68 USD


Wager has been accepted!
Ticket Number - 18408511
Your new amount available is 1,650.005 USD. After placing your last play, you must press here to review your pending plays and ensure your wagers were placed correctly.

Available: 1,650.005 Total Pending: 275.61 USD

winner, available balance is now 1816.455 with nothing pending

Probably the most well thought out troll account in the history of the internet.

Been called, but calling it again. Well done sir. Well done.

If not a troll, I think this is fitting

http://youtube.com/watch?v=PFonKtWPnbA

Since people just don't seem to be getting it... here we go folks, once and for all, for the final time.


In January 2008 A man in his mid 20s from Northern California launched an all out assault on one of the most established sportsbooks in the world.


Using unconventional line moving and hedging tactics, the bayareabeast decided he would show that he could defy all odds and bring down the Goliath of the betting industry.

It wasn't even just about the money.

Sure, the bayareabeast will get rich of course one way or another, however his goal was to open the eyes of his fellow sports betters and showing them that most of them are and have been going about this the entirely wrong way.

This thread was created so anybody else interested could follow along and profit along with the beast.

I honestly dont know why people keep thinking that this is a bunk account or "troll" account... isnt the purpose of a troll to go around provoking people?

I dont post anywhere except in my own thread. You figure it out Einstein.


You may think that it is only a matter of time until the superior financial position of the sportsbook breaks my balls.

The bayareabeast is unlike any other sports better in human history.


You are welcome to make money, or just watch for free.

Just know this.

I have unprecedented determination and resilience among other traits that will help me in defeating the book for hundreds of thousands.

I know right now Im not really making anything.

Just wait till I start betting nickels, then dimes.

FYP

I'm down to take your money.