Super Bowl Saints/Colts - Page 3 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

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01-26-2010 , 12:25 PM

#51

12ressiMorP

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,285

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucky

many people are reacting to the jets colts line where colts were 7.5 pt favs near opening. These people are ignoring he role of the total in this game. The game is expected to have 16 more points based on the total line. Using rough linear approximation the opening spread on this game (ignoring the 5 minutes of 3.5) was colts -4. In comparison to colts -7.5 this is significantly different. 4 points in a 56 point total is around 2.9 in a 40 point total.

The books were saying that indy would be 5.5 favs at home vs saints under a similar total structure to the jets game.

I could be wrong, but I don't think this is relevant.

The Colts edge in total team strength does not grow with every point added to a total. For the sake of argument, if we assume the Colts do actually have a greater team strength than New Orleans, the only way the point spread should be higher is if the game LENGTH was longer, not if more points were expected to be scored.

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01-26-2010 , 03:10 PM

#52

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by 12ressiMorP

this

all we would expect is a more dispersed range of possible outcomes

Quote

01-26-2010 , 05:58 PM

#53

FatalError

Fantasy Site Rep

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 8,184

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

lololololololo

how is this lol when market is +4.5 +09 and +6 -10 on matchbook?

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01-26-2010 , 07:01 PM

#54

$kill Game

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

This line looks insane to me. I never dreamed that it would be this high. I was initially expecting to open at Saints -1 and then figured no, it will probably be Colts -1.5 or so since the squares will want to bet on Peyton Manning and the books will shade it. -4.5 though? That's just insane. The Jets were 7.5 point dogs in Indy so this line basically says that the Saints would have been a PK against the Jets. That's just asinine. I don't think I've ever seen an NFL line that was this obviously off.

Iggy, I think ur overlooking how "styles make fights". Colts defense matches up well with what Saints like to do (big plays/quick scores). And Peyton Manning given 2 weeks to disect a saints defense that is weaker than advertised. There big strength is there d coordinator and schemes. You can't outscheme manning tho if u dont have the personel for it.

Also, Jets over/under was 39 (?) vs 56.5 for this game.

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01-26-2010 , 08:29 PM

#55

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by FatalError

how is this lol when market is +4.5 +09 and +6 -10 on matchbook?

If you assume the market is efficient, -110 is better from a growth perspective. Not to mention the reasoning for it is flawed.

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01-26-2010 , 10:35 PM

#56

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

If you assume the market is efficient, -110 is better from a growth perspective. Not to mention the reasoning for it is flawed.

If market = efficient then no one can make money. we are better off sleeping in.

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01-26-2010 , 10:47 PM

#57

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Eh. I was referring to the value of points. If you're talking about better against WA SB lines, you gotta take some liberties with economics.

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01-27-2010 , 01:05 AM

#58

cwicemvp12

Sergei Bobrovsky!

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 22,495

I was thinking about betting the under when it was 55, now it's moved up to 56.5. What are people's thoughts about the O/U?

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01-27-2010 , 01:25 AM

#59

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by cwicemvp12

I was thinking about betting the under when it was 55, now it's moved up to 56.5. What are people's thoughts about the O/U?

sit and wait. I dont expect resistance to current movement until late next week if at all. If this game gets an early score the ingame betting might get insane.

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01-28-2010 , 08:47 PM

#60

Saklad

Best handicapper in OOT

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

I don't think I've ever seen an NFL line that was this obviously off.

How about the Patriots +15 1/2 vs. the Rams in the 2002 Superbowl? Now that was some easy money!

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01-28-2010 , 09:58 PM

#61

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,642

dallas clark O/67.5

2.2u to win 2u

Quote

01-28-2010 , 10:23 PM

#62

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,183

Good call prbly. Only caveat is decent chance G Williams blitzes like last game against Favre, his philosophy is #1 put pressure on the qb and he's more aggressive with it than most. Could mean Clark will have to stay in to block like he did against NYJ pretty frequently. Could go double TE w 2 wr since they never leave in a FB, which would free him up though

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01-29-2010 , 12:25 AM

#63

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

dallas clark O/67.5

2.2u to win 2u

my concern is that peyton manning has shown a willingness to throw to all his targets. I could see clark 110 yards. I could see clark 40 yds.

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01-29-2010 , 01:48 AM

#64

cwicemvp12

Sergei Bobrovsky!

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 22,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

dallas clark O/67.5

2.2u to win 2u

I like that bet. It didn't even occur to me to check out the props for this game.

Quote

01-29-2010 , 02:30 AM

#65

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by cwicemvp12

I like that bet. It didn't even occur to me to check out the props for this game.

This game is King of all prop games.

Quote

01-29-2010 , 10:07 AM

#66

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by cwicemvp12

I like that bet. It didn't even occur to me to check out the props for this game.

you're kidding ,right?

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01-29-2010 , 11:10 AM

#67

cefis21

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 472

Bodog...Pete Townshend o5 windmills. Free money.

Quote

01-29-2010 , 01:20 PM

#68

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

books forgot to factor in the 9/11 assist for the patriots

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01-29-2010 , 02:29 PM

#69

12ressiMorP

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,285

Quote:

Originally Posted by cwicemvp12

I like that bet. It didn't even occur to me to check out the props for this game.

Saints do a great job vs tight ends. Shiancoe was an exception last game because they played more zone than normal, which left him uncovered a lot of the time. Shiancoe was at best the Vikings 4th best receiving option. Clark is at worst the Colts 2nd option. Expect the Saints to go back to more man to man, and go back to containing the opposition's tight end.

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01-29-2010 , 06:06 PM

#70

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Brian Burke has Colts 52% to win the game
link

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01-29-2010 , 07:05 PM

#71

AngerPush

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,323

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saklad

How about the Patriots +15 1/2 vs. the Rams in the 2002 Superbowl? Now that was some easy money!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

did you actually bet pats here or are you just making an observation based on what ended up happening?

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01-29-2010 , 07:31 PM

#72

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by 12ressiMorP

Why would the Saints go back to man-to-man to defend the Colts and their numerous threats?

Quote

01-30-2010 , 12:49 AM

#73

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,183

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

Why would the Saints go back to man-to-man to defend the Colts and their numerous threats?

Do they? Or do they just have receivers on a team where Peyton Manning is the QB?

Last edited by DodgerIrish; 01-30-2010 at 01:18 AM.

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01-30-2010 , 01:19 AM

#74

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Are you guys really analyzing NFL defensive coverages? Considering a trained mind is slightly better than a coinflip to recognize what is going on. I doubt anyone posting in this thread has more than the slightest clue what is going on in the defensive backfield and how they plan on playing their coverages v Manning.

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01-30-2010 , 01:22 AM

#75

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,183

Ummm ... I can look and see what coverage they're in. It's actually not that hard. All about above field shots.

Most of the time it's about disguising blitzes to beat Peyton, zone blitzing is key. Good chance there's no defense that can beat Peyton at this point though (he can see the pressure presnap better than anyone obv), just self/receivers/refs.

Last edited by DodgerIrish; 01-30-2010 at 01:28 AM.

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