Lawler .25u +205
Gracie .25u -155
Coy .25u -240

I don't really love anything on this card. I searched endlessly for info on Scott Carson (I don't think WEC 1 was ever on TV), but I'm staying away from the Herschel fight.

I like Roger and Lawler at these odds.

Yeah I hit Roger and Lawler multiple times already too. Also Cyborg is worth a play imo.

I don't think cyborg has a shot in hell. Diaz is too tough and too cagey to just get blitzed, and over five rounds it's hard to see cyborg coming out on top.

Cyborg has been TKO'd a lot because he comes out and goes to war and this is just going to be another on that list.

He's got a very viable path to victory here by hurting Diaz in the clinch, or by closing the distance. He most likely won't get taken down and he doesn't have much to fear from Diaz's peppering shots, at least early. It mostly depends what kind of gas tank he brings.

Writeup:

http://blog.mmaratings.net/2011/01/f...tions-for.html

The Humungus,

Great write-ups as always which I read from time to time. Can you explain how Roger Gracie's accomplishments fit in the world of MMA? I'm not asking for a full comparison of outstanding ju-jitsu practitioners against well-rounded MMAers but is his skill level enough to progress far? I see he booked a win against Maia early on which must have been very tough. Who could be an elite MMA competitor with only one outstanding skill? My knowledge of the sport is comparatively poor but I understood Maia to be a BJJ prodigy but again could never be elite to due to his faults (strike defence).

Maia is fully committed to MMA though.

Roger is the most accomplished BJJ practitioner in the world. He can make money off doing seminars, selling instructional DVDs, running his school, getting sponsorship money and prizes for grappling competitions. He doesn't really care too much about MMA so he's not going to spend the next several years slowly building up his skills in the general field of MMA. He's chasing big paydays in the big promotions right off the bat and not fighting regularly. Compare that to someone like Ben Askren, who took fights for little money against nobodies, so he could get experience and work on his game to become a real MMA competitor. The lack of dedication is why he won't get to the top level. You cannot compete at the top level of MMA unless you are spending tons of time training in all areas and sparring MMA with good fighters.

Gracie has the grappling chops to handle any MMA fighter. He was known for actually submitting elite grapplers in pure grappling competition, which is pretty rare at that level, with most bouts being decided on points. Furthermore, he frequently submitted them using the most basic submissions. That kind of ridiculously solid fundamentals will be enough to just take the back and RNC tons of MMA fighters.

He doesn't have the kind of big explosive power to throw down guys that want to stand with him, similar to Maia and in contrast to a guy like Jacare who has the fast-twitch muscle and judo background, so that would probably be his biggest weakness. We also haven't really seen him take big punches or face a great striker, so who knows where he is as far as that goes.

Lol a bjj win against Maia tough? He's half his size... and he's submitted Xande and Jacare in those. He's currently the best grappler in mma, on par with Rickson and Rolls in their primes. Whether or not he progresses far depends on his commitment to training the other aspects he's weaker at.

How can Hershel Walker be a -313 fav against any fighter? Is Carson in a wheelchair or something?

zero wins in the last 10 years

guy has a very weird record, i can't even find out his age. do you know what camp he trains with?

edit: NM, I found out.

LOL, I swear it seems like Humungus picks about 90% round 1 stoppages. No hate, just funny.

It seems to go in waves. Some events I pick like all decisions, other times it's a bunch of stoppages.

I like to THINK that it's just based on analysis of the individual fights, but who knows.

In this case I just don't think there's much longevity in a Cyborg/Diaz or Jacare/Lawler fight. Lawler can get tapped super-quick and he can also KO jacare right off the bat, and Cyborg gets finished between the 5 and 10 minute mark a lot of the time, which is in line with how Diaz fights. I think that fight will look a lot like the Frank Shamrock fight for Diaz.

.3u on Cyborg +300. He will probably loose but I think the line has value over +250.

Really seems like a bad match-up stylistically for Gracie, though I guess he probably just needs to get Prangley down once to have a good chance at finishing.

Definitely a bad stylistic matchup for him, but Prangley has looked ridiculously old in his recent fights. Even against Jardine.

definitely have to agree!

wtf? that's not normal for a 50yo...

I am offering Santos +335 on Matchbook. Pinny is +305/-350 right now.

I about **** myself watching Roger's control when Prangley was trying to buck from mount. Realness.

Hoids Gracie wins. So much bacne and hair loss that he didn't have a hint of in (at least) 2008.

That was clearly all muscle that let him do that.