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03-21-2010 , 07:19 PM
how are odds on a sporting event figured? for example in the tournament if there are 64 teams shouldnt the worse team be a 64-1 shot? how do they determine the odds for kansas to be 4-1 or whatnot?
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03-21-2010 , 07:38 PM
supply and demand. And factor in true odds of a certain team winning or losing.

The four 16 seeds, will never be 64-1 to win.
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03-21-2010 , 07:42 PM
If you pick at team a team completely at random it would be 64-1, so this is clearly not what the worst teams should be. Clearly then the best teams should be much better than this and the worst teams should be much worse.
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03-22-2010 , 05:25 PM
If all 64 teams were equal each would be 63-1.
google: 'probability'
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03-22-2010 , 08:04 PM
i understand the theory of it but just out of my own curiosity i wondered how they decide to make kansas a 4-1 favorite or a 3-1 favprite before any money is bet on the 64 team field...is it just one persons guess at that particular sports book?
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03-22-2010 , 08:23 PM
The goal, and this is from a layman's perspective, is to get the maximum number of people betting on something yet for it to still to be in the house's interest.
For example, if a 16 seed is 64 to 1, no one is going to bet that. So they make it 200 to 1 or 500 to 1. Is that the true odds of them winning? Its probably less. But the consumer is a lot more likely to bet that, yet they are still not getting the right price.
Supply and demand is right in the sense that if demand goes up for something, i. e. everyone is going to bet Kansas to win it all, the price must go up, therefore they end up as something like 2 to 1 to win it all, far away the favorite to win the whole thing.

But no just because each team has to accomplish the same task, win 6 games, the task is far more difficult for some then others, therefore they all shouldn't be given the same price.
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03-23-2010 , 04:02 PM
ahhh....but in theory the first opening line is really the sports book managers best ecucated guess...there isnt much math theory to it other than records and stats....he must come up with a line that will get action and move it from there? am i getting this right yet..lol
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03-23-2010 , 04:17 PM
lol
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03-25-2010 , 01:23 PM
There are professional linesmakers that set the odds. They are not educated guesses.
They are exactly what they are supposed to be. They don't miss nothing. If you think a line looks wrong then you just missed something, not them. The only edge we as bettors have is that we don't have to bet on every game but they have to post a line for every game!
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03-25-2010 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by figjam99
There are professional linesmakers that set the odds. They are not educated guesses.
They are exactly what they are supposed to be. They don't miss nothing. If you think a line looks wrong then you just missed something, not them. The only edge we as bettors have is that we don't have to bet on every game but they have to post a line for every game!
LOL!

If every line is set perfectly then there is no edge to be gained.

If what you are saying is true then why can I bet team A at +140 against team B at -138 right now?
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03-25-2010 , 01:30 PM
I think he's saying that if you think a line is off by more than 10% (or whatever) you're more likely to be wrong than the bookie.

An opening line is the sportsbook manager's educated guess. but they're some of the most most educated and best guessers out there.
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