I know nothing about sports betting (I'm a poker player), and would be grateful if someone could answer a few questions.

1. Is it possible to win without any knowledge of sport? I mean, can you make a long term profit with just knowledge of math, probablity, statistics, (and whatever else it takes), while knowing nothing of the sport in question?

2. I'm UK based. Will "Sharp Sport Betting" and "Weighing the Odds" be good book for me to read? (I notice that half of the former book is dedicated to NFL)

3. Being a poker player, I think in terms of hourly winrate. What winrates are possible for a winning sports bettor? What % of total bankroll would he/she make per hour?

4. What is the variance like? How long are the downswings and breakeven streches?

5. Do you think sports betting has more long-term durability than poker? (I mean, as a poker player you always have to worry about the market becoming saturated, or games drying up, staying one step ahead of the field, etc... while with sports, one you've got it worked out then that's it, right?)

Any other advice for a newb would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

1. Yes

Just tail steam, bro

I am a far more experienced sports bettor then poker player so I will jump in.

1. Your first question, one of the most important rules to live by when betting sports is getting a good price. This has nothing to do with sports knowledge. For instance, lets use 2 examples. It is 845 AM in las vegas right now so many sports books are closed or just opening up. The offshores are basically all open. The Lakers/celtice game 5 is today, now of course this is a very big game so the lines are pretty similar at all the casinos. In reg season games there is more variance in the betting lines offered. Yet there are still differences. Go to vegasinsider.com and look at the difference in lines at different casinos/offshores.

You can take the celts -2.5 OR the Lakers at +3.5 depending on which side you like.
As far as the over under it currently is 187.0 - 188.5. So if you like the over you play over 187, if you like the under you play under 188.5. You may say that 1or 2 points is not much, and in many situations it does not come into play. But it does FAR more often then you think.

Lets look at some real examples. This series is tied 2-2. So there were eight different wagers that came into play so far. ( 4 times you can pick a team, 4 times you can pick an over under). Of these 8 decisions 1 fell EXACTLY on the common number. I am using the common number as used by covers.com the top sports betting site. Go to the scoreboard page on covers and you will see the final scores as well as the final betting lines Covers is the 2+2 of sports. Game 1 of the bost/LA series fell exactly on 191 which was the average betting number. So if you were a person who had an opinion on the game one over/under NO MATTER what your opinion was if you shopped the different web sites for the best price available to you you would have won your bet.

The last play off rounds between Orl/Bost and LA/PHO Both went 6 games, so 12 games, and 24 decisions total. Of those 24 decisions 3 final scores fell within 1.5 points of the final betting number. Again this means there were 3 decisions that you COULD NOT lose if you had access to a large number of offshore betting sites, european betting shops, vegas casinos, locals etc etc.

Do these last 3 play off series there have been 32 decisons so far. If you were careful in your selection of betting lines there were 4 games you could not have lost.
Again, people say games don't most the time don't fall close to the line, it happens much more then you think.
I remember before the beginning of this years playoffs I got a call from a poker player about betting the NBA playoffs. He is a strong poker player but a weak sports bettor and he is vegas based. Just like in poker there are a thousand things to learn but all I stressed to him was " get the best number out there that is sports betting 101". So he thanks me and hangs up. THE SECOND DAY of the NBA playoffs there are 4 games, so 8 decisions. FIVE fall within 1.5 points of the closing number and a 6th falls 2 points off the number, go check it out if you want 4-18 was the date. He calls me up and tells me he bet 5 games and went 4-1, and 3 of those wins would have been winners no matter which side he wagered on!!.

I dont have time to go into detail on my second point but I will give you a little info. When betting money lines the price is EVEN MORE important.Nearly EVERY bet you make you are costing or saving yourself money.
I will give an example right now in real time that is more dramatic then most but should blow you away.
The yanks play houston today. Look at some of the differences in the lines at this moment.

Hilton--- Leroys --- Caesar/CalNeva--- Statosphere

Astro +310 -- Astros +260 --- Astros +300 --- Astros +300---
Yanks -360 --- Yanks -350 --- Yanks -370 --- Yanks -400---


Look at the differences!! If you bet the yanks at strat you are burning 12% of your money. If you take the stros at leroys you are burning 20% of your profit. Every one of these casinos is within 2 miles of each other!!


One last point on this issue when a sharp bookmaker or bettor looks at a persons past wagers they can tell you if the bettor is sharp or a square not by there win/loss but by the prices they got on the games they played.

I will go more into detail later tonight if you are interested, I have to get dressed for a family function. I will also address some other issues regarding question 1 as well as the other questions you have in your post.

If you have any questions regarding this post I will answer them later tonight

Actionjunkie, thanks for your detailed reply. Unfortunately it might as well be written in Chinese! Like I said, I'm a total newb to sports betting, (and there's the whole US/UK difference with expressing odds which I have yet to understand). But I think I get the gist- finding the best price is the most important factor.

I look forward to hearing what you have to say about the other questions.

And what's tail steaming?

I will explain in simple English tonight.
It is far more simple then u think.

Am very interested in this thread. Any insight would be greatly appreciated, prepare to be bombarded with questions to make sure I fully understand though .

Thanks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH-aCkLkpOI

Mendez,

Sorry for the delay and for the explanations that were a little too advanced. If you can beat poker on any level above micro you can beat sports betting
The sports betting house edge, commission, or Rake to use a poker term varies from sports to sport. The term they use for the rake is vigorish or vig. The majority of action in sports betting is of course on major events in soccer, like the world cup, and american football.

But right now it is baseball season and baseball season is a great great time to make money in sports. So we will first discuss baseball.
In my first post in this thread I posted the actual lines from las vegas casinos in real time. I use a service that gives me real time odds for casinos and sportsbooks world wide. I used these linesand this example to illustrate the CRAZY differences in value depending who you are betting. Lets break down those examples so we can all undertstand them.

Las Vegas Hilton

Astros +310
Yanks -360

You have to know right off the bat that all numbers are correlated to a wager of 100 dollars. 100 is the base unit.
So lets look at the yankees, they are the favorite, you can tell by the - sign next to their price. As you see the number is 360. So in order to win 100 dollars you must wager 360.
If you want to win 200 you must risk 720. etc etc
Conversely the big underdog is houston. Houston is the underdog as you can tell by the + next to their name. They are "plus money". Next to the plus sign is 310. So you have to wager 100 dollars for a very healthy return on 310 in profit. wager 200 and the profit is 620 etc etc

Lets look at the hiltons edge, or vig in this game. The yankee backers are paying 360 to win 100. But the hilton is only giving 310 for astros backers that risk 100. That is a very juicy vig the casino is taking.

Look at the stratosphere casinos numbers. They are charging -400 to win 100 on the yankees but only paying +300 on the astros. That ridiculous amount of vigorish makes a sportsbook rich.

Leroys has yanks -350 and houston +260. Again a very fat middle for the house.

Keep in mind every one of these betting locations is within a 3 mile drive of each other.
These numbers show you how unsophisticated many sports bettors are and the casinos stay are happy to take advantage of that.
How can the stratosphere make you lay 400 for 100 when leroy right down the street is charging you 350 for 100? The hilton is only charging you 360 for 100 and they are literally within a mile of the stratosphere.
So if you are trying to win 500 dollars the amount you have to risk on the yankees varies greatly.

Hilton 1800/500
Leroys 1750/500
Ceasars/cal neva 1850/500
Stratosphere 2000/500

Conversely lets see what wagering 500 on houston gets you in profit at each place

Hilton 500/1550
Leroys 500/1300
Caesaers/calneva 500/1500
Stratosphere 500/1500

So in this one example If you wanted to win 500 on the yankees your risk was 250 dollars less at Leroys then at stratosphere. Also the 500 risked on houston if wagered at the hilton would win you 200 more then it would at leroys.

Most examples in baseball are not this extreme but winning an extra 30 or 40 dollars a wager or saving an extra 30 or 40 dollars on a losing wager on a daily basis yields huge returns at the end of each week/month.



The you tube clip posted by Bjornb is a very good one. We will go into standard deviations later but the 2nd point in that clip is spot on. In my first post in this thread I said
" one last point on this issue when a sharp bookmaker or bettor looks at a persons past wagers they can tell you if the bettor is sharp or square not by their win/loss but by the prices they got on the games they played"

The clip says the exact same thing but is much more detailed.

Just to be clear let me give a quick vocabulary lesson . A "sharp" bettor or bookmaker is knowledgable and usually to use a poker term "gets his money in good"
A "square" is the exact opposite and normally just bets the obvious teams and almost always bet the favorites, which is not the way to go.

I am sorry I have not had time to jump in this thread but tomorrow I will post some info on the baseball games you will find interesting and helpful.


Now for a play on the NBA game 6. Usually I am an under addict in playoff hoops. But tomorrows 188 looks to appealing. I expect a much more uptempo game and I expect it to go over.
I also expect to see some 190, and 190.5 numbers out there tomorrow. Tomorrow morning I will post some real time info on baseball.

Have a great night guys

good posts.

Can I add some questions?

1) at what time do you bet? Close to the game or as soon as possible (when cappers post their picks)?

2) Are euro players allowed to bet at US sites?
3) Covers.com shows me only the US and vegas bookies while oddschecker only gives me euro bookies.. are there any sites or tools that combine them all?

4) Is you BR liquid so you can quickly deposit on the sites with best odds or do you have a small roll (maybe unlock some bonuses) on each site?

5) I find it hard to get good bonus / match up money on sportsbookies, where do I get good deals or at least fair deals (like the big poker rakeback sites).

6) Are you interested in line movement? I mean if you follow a handicapper on a 9.0 over which he took at -110; are you following movement to see if it goes up or down to beat your capper? And how do you do so.. is that tracking the sportsbettor's bread & butter?

7) what's a realistic monthly result in terms of units?

Thanks actionjunkie, I understand all of your last post.

I'm interested that you say this:

I had thought it was the other way round.

So as a real example, the soccer match today between New Zealand and Slovakia. Using my odds comparison site I see that the best odds I can get are (using decimal odds):

New Zealand 9, Draw 4.2, Slovakia 1.57

(I think in American terminlogy that is New Zealand 800, draw 320, Slovakia -175)

This adds up to 98% so I could put an arbitrage bet and secure a profit that way. But if I wanted to just bet on one result, where is the value most likley to be? (sometimes that seems easy identify because one figure at one bookies on one result is significantly higher than the rest, but in this case it is not immediately clear by just looking at the numbers).

Some games there might not be significant value or any value at all.

Im not familiar with soccer

Mendez,

I am going to answer this post quickly and then go back to original post. I personally have no expertise on european soccer so telling you where the best value is from my perspective is simple.
You have to look at all the numbers out there, every betting shop you can see. Not every place you have access to wagering, every place you can see the lines even if you do not have an ability to wager in some of these places. Wherever you see a single betting shop where the line is the furthest off the current markets, if you have access to that shop that is where you make your bet. Sometimes you wont see something far enough off the current market prices to make a wager at all. This is where expertise in soccer comes into play because when exactly the number is soft enough for you to pull the trigger and make a bet is subjective. You as the bettor have to make that decision.
I see the game ended 1-1 but slovakia was the dominant side.
A bet on the world cup between teams of this caliber would just be a matter of price shopping. Since my knowledge is limited an off market price is all I would take regardless of what position I am taking, win NZ, loss NZ, or draw.

If your example involved the lakers total my answer would be different. The common number is 188.5 but lets say you saw a 190.5 out there. If I had no opinion on the game I would tell you to take advantage of the bad number and take the under. However in this case I would not tell you to bet the bad number because I actually like this game to go over the total tonight.
On the flip side if the bad number you saw today was 186.5, meaning 2 points off the common market in the opposite direction I would tell you to bet the over fairly heavy because I like the over at the common number and you are finding a very good number which of course makes me even happier.

Its definetly possible to beat sports with no knowledge of them. In fact I would argue that its actually better to know nothing about the sport. That way, personal feelings and bias's don't get in the way. Anytime people say something like "peirce wants revenge tonight" or "there's no way the dodgers lose 2 in a row" as a reason for making a bet, I just smile and nod.

I think the biggest thing that I've learned so far is just do a ton of research and try things. No ones gonna hold your hand and show you how to beat sportsbetting. I've been betting for 5+ years and finally had my aha! moment a few months ago. I've been crushing ever since. Just get the best price available, bet off-market numbers and learn all you can about line movements, efficient/innefficient markets and anything else you can absorb. I know literally 100 times more about sportsbetting than I did 6 months ago, and ill prob know 100 times more in 6 months.

In short puppy is right, sometimes passing on a game is the right call. Usually this is the case actually. That is when knowledge of that particular match comes into play. The more knowledge of that sport/match you have the easier when deciding if any true value is there.

Sports is not a coin flip or a roll of dice when its ALL about the math.

Mendez,

To answer question # 2 answer this for me, what sports are you interested in wagering on? Also how do you plan on doing so in person or on phone? Will you have access to 2-3 betting shops? 4-6?

I will answer questions 3-5 later when I have time. I just want to say quickly if you are a successful sports bettor you are supposed to bet 3-4% max of your BR on a game.

One last thing for now, dont get overwhelmed by all the new info. Look at poker for example lets say a novice asked you to explain poker to him. Well there is SO SO much you actually know about poker.

Position, stack size, implied odds, hand ranges, flop texture, I could go on and on so on the surface it seems impossible to teach someone all of it.
But you learned it didnt you?

That's good to hear. Where are good places to do a ton of research (books, websites etc...)?

I'm based in the UK and have access to about 15 or so betting shops online (or more, but I'd rather stick with the big names). I have no problems moving the money about. I don't really care what sports I wager on- just whatever's profitable! I don't really want to spend hours and hours studying all the details of a particular sport to try and be able to better predict the outcome of games than the bookies can. Hence question 1 in the OP.

Yes you're right, and I remember browsing 2+2 to try and learn poker a few years ago. The hardest part is the beginning because you don't even have the vocabulary to understand what everyone is talking about.

Oh and Poogs I don't suppose you'd care to share your aha moment? A pm would be fine if you don't want to let the secret out

Yes many win without knowledge of a sport in fact cbb is my best sport and I cant name 10 players. Called market handicapping which in essence means bet the best line.

Highly recommend less then 2% of bankroll per play. Anything higher and you could go broke. Also feel a 2% edge is very good ROI wise.

To further emphasise the importance of line shopping:

I know a guy who beats a sport simply by looking at the money lines for the home team and when the odds are below a certain threshold so that the implied prob of a home win is greater than the normal home win % and the line more than X% different from the consensus, he bets.

He doesn't actually know the rules of that sport.

Details are deliberately not included as it's not my system to share, but to make it a bit clearer, lets pretend it's handball.

If Home teams win 67% of their games in handball that means the guy is interested in matches where the consensus home line is below 1.5 (because that means there's about a 67% chance of the home team winning).

Lets say several bookies have the following lines, 1.4 1.4 1.41 1.39 1.38 1.55.

1.55 is more than 5% different than 1.4 (the consensus line) so it's a bet.

Maybe what he's doing is just hammering rogue lines with an arbitrary subset, but it shows the importance of checking prices (or at least letting a website do it for you).

look up Kelly Criterion

your arbitrary amounts are silly and incorrect

The aha moment was just putting together everything Ive been learning about into one system thats actually working. Its fun when the biggest thing you have you worry about is getting kicked out.

Does have anyone use live betting to hedge bets is there money to be made on the live betting market in MLB ?

its not a bad rule of thumb for someone starting out/someone who cant really quantify their edge...they really shouldnt be betting full kelly