Question on how to calculate the profitably (or lack thereof) in this scenario
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 432
A friend of mine decided to start taking picks from one of the "handicappers" that post their results and sell picks etc. He's giving the guy 25% of his profits, and there is makeup on the losses.
Wanted to know exactly how to calculate what % the guy needs to pick at for my friend to profit in this situation, as I'm pretty sure he can't but want to show proof.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 5,086
Assuming ATS bets with -110 vig:
Let p = breakeven win %
EV = 0 = (.75*10/11)p - (1-p)
p = 1 / (.75*10/11 + 1) = 22/37 = 59.46%
edit -- if vig is taken from losses the EV equation is slightly different but ofc it gets the same p
So to profit he needs to have a higher ATS win % than that. Definitely a terrible deal.
Last edited by heehaww; 10-23-2013 at 06:49 PM.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 176
heehaww, your equation doesn't take into account makeup.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 5,086
Makeup? What's that?
(Some joke flying over my head perhaps?)
