Can get you a whole block on Florida Avenue and the Bwalk if you're interested. Gonna cost more than a couple of dimes tho.

A noobie question, something like rakeback in poker exist in sporstbetting, i want to make a few sports bets at 365bet or similar site, but maybe like in poker you cant get rakeback

thanks for any help

wait one month please, im creating a site that has 10% rakeback whether you win or lose !

lines are -150/-150

+EV has to be played. If you are passing on games to bolster your win % you are losing a ton of money. If you can find only 26 per year with + EV you need to get better.

The professionals I have met make hundreds+ per month.

you be the judge

lol

I take it you dont agree. Perhaps you could share why. I have had great success for three years and am always interested in learning more.

1 unit on a 15% edge and ridiculing the Kelly Criterion?

I am intrigued by your theories and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Sarcasm noted.

1. KC needs to be modified to fit sports betting. It isnt blackjack where you are only faced with decision. You could have action on simultaneous plays. To which the KC is not suited for.

2. The 15% quote is a process to help manage relationships with clients. Most do not have the understanding of variance and only b*tch about the -75 swing in June. Even though we killed it in May. Also, the laying just one unit quote is along the same thought lines.

I have a wife and refuse to spend our $$$ at gambling. I needed to raise capital and am doing so with subscriptions. The quotes mentioned were areas where I sacrificed long-term expectation for decreased volatility for clients. So they wouldnt jump off a cliff on the downswings. There is the caveat mentioned where the long-term should press harder on the smaller.

But I guess because I gave passive advice (albeit profitably passive) to fish clients I guess I couldnt add value to this forum. I came here because the great poker players say they all have someone to talk over hands to discuss the game. I am 4 years into this and want to learn something.

But instead, even the great 2+2 has regs who immediately jump to conclusions on a quote out of context. And resort to sarcasm without even trying to understand the thought process.

Here is a link that shows my bet sizing process. http://statfactors.com/2012/03/16/th...els-criterion/

And here is some free information I gave out on a game. http://statfactors.com/page/2/

But I get it. One obscure quote in a FAQ for new clients is all we should talk about.

touts gonna tout

This dialogue seems promising.

O wow, a wife!

Yeah, I noticed the wife line as well.

Hey stat, I have a wife too. Wasn't aware this was significant to the discussion. Does that matter? What about having a pet?

Comment was given to show why I bother dealing with a subscription model. Reason- I have an addictive personality and do not want to become a degenerate who lost everything(Read- Wife more important to me than sports betting). Therefore, the head ache of managing client expectation is unavoidable.

Mind you, Sigley did his own google search, and posted out-of-context quotes intended for a different audience. In an attempt to be able to add/gain value I am trying to defend myself.

Even if I thought the KC was complete sh*t or I only bet 1 unit on an expected 15% return, which I dont, there is still an excellent chance I could add value in another way. My hope is that this a marketplace of ideas and a community where we all try to improve. Its not like we are playing poker and are opponents. We all have the same opponent. The bookie.

I obviously shouldnt have to sell this notion. It is either what I hope it is or a place where people just spend too much time doing worthless things. I will soon find out. Excellent chance my expectations of the sports betting 2+2 were too high.

so if someone bets something causing the line to move that doesn't affect other bettors in anyway?

or if you expose 1st inning K secrets and the limits get slashed to nothing because everyone is abusing it

or if TomG destroys total bases for the entire world?

Ur doing it wrong

Speaking in generalities, obv. My knowledge < My knowledge + Your knowledge. And in most cases (hypothetical) Your knowledge < Your knowledge + My knowledge. In the very least, ideas from others force us to re-examine our own thoughts. Which MIGHT lead to more $$$.

Know that I am not saying give away secrets. Or share your action.

So, let's run down the possibilities:

1) You're a loser even without factoring in the degeneracy
2) Your wife is just as much of a spazz monkey as you are
3) You somehow do win (unlikely), your wife isn't a spazz, and you just despise money by not having her set up an acct where only she has the pw and having her bet the releases.

Somehow, some way, you're doing it wrong.

Option 3 is better than subscriptions to generate $$$ to continually add to my BR? BR grows on subscriptions and profit from picks. I keep company funds seperate from personal funds. I am betting $$$ I control. Just have a defined boundary of what can be risked. This way "rock bottom" does not lead to selling my blood to try and get my aces cracked at Bill's.

Because those are mutually exclusive? You're dealing with major markets and pissant amounts so it's not like you'd be moving anybody's number.

I am less than 5 years in. Zero-Variance EV is important still. Emotional EV hedged by defining what the bottom is. I still dont understand why this is lolwrong.

Of course you don't.

You are 5 years in and your roll is 40k? What did you start with 3 cents?

He's making his move in year 14

Or when the divorce hits, whichever comes first

Yeah, but his variance is LOW.

A+

would lol again.