Hi,

Quick Question. Youre playing in a 12 game pool. You choose correctly roughly 70% of the time. How do find out how often you will win all 12 games?

is is .70 ^12 or .7 x .7 x .7 x.7 x.7 x.7 x.7 x.7 x .7 x.7 x.7 x.7 = .019% or

8 games would be .7 ^8 = 5.76%

Just wondering about the math.


Thanks

40+ views and no response....

great question. it's a fun exercise to work through it. i like to reduce it to the simplest case and then generalize it.

simplest case
single game situation, correct 70% of the time. how often will you win?

slightly more complicated.
two game situation, correct 70% of the time. how often will you win both?

close to generalized version
three gamer. correct 70% of the time. how often will you win them all?

now let's try it for n games. i know you just want me to shutup and give you an answer but it's not fair i get to have all the fun working it out.

thank god you asked for the odds of winning all games. bonus points if anyone can figure out the odds of winning 11 or more out of the 12 game pool!

I came up with roughly 2% or 49:1 odds. I dont know if this is correct but I took a shot!