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Oil tonight, +EV

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01-24-2008 , 01:54 PM

coolmoedee

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 964

I know im going to get flamed but I live in edmonton, follow the oilers hard, have season tickets and basically watch every minute of all their games. Rick J agrees with me tonight to combat all the guys who think im an idiot. Reasoning is simple even if you dont know the oil. They have their best line up (- torres) of the year plus Garon is starting. Florida has 8 players out.

Bet the OILERS!

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01-24-2008 , 02:33 PM

4Tay

adept

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 888

I thought this thread was going to be about the price of crude oil on the market.

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01-24-2008 , 02:42 PM

hedgie43

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,308

Quote:

The reasoning should be about their chance of winning relative to the price you get.

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01-24-2008 , 02:46 PM

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

Already on them at +140. Also got Dallas at -130 over Buffalo(what am I missing there?).

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01-24-2008 , 03:12 PM

coolmoedee

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 964

Quote:

Originally Posted by hedgie43

The reasoning should be about their chance of winning relative to the price you get.

Fair enough. They win this game around 60% of the time IMO and are paying like 35%

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01-24-2008 , 03:16 PM

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

35% is about +186

which is pretty far from +140

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01-24-2008 , 03:24 PM

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

15.5u to win 21u on oilers

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01-24-2008 , 03:25 PM

centris

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 566

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolmoedee

Fair enough. They win this game around 60% of the time IMO and are paying like 35%

If you really think this you should be 30% of your bankroll on the bet.

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01-24-2008 , 03:45 PM

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

Quote:

Originally Posted by centris

If you really think this you should be 30% of your bankroll on the bet.

Thank you J.L. Kelly. and actually, if those numbers are correct, then you should be 30% of your bankroll.

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01-24-2008 , 04:05 PM

#10

coolmoedee

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 964

I just pulled those number out of thin air......all i'm saying is bet on the oil tonight. I actually should start a thread because I know when they will win and when they will lose after watching them this long......i just can never bring myself to betting against them

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01-24-2008 , 05:31 PM

#11

Performify

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolmoedee

I actually should start a thread

You've started several. You definitely don't need another one right now.

If you want to start predicting win / lose for the Oilers and do so against the moneyline, great. I can re-title this thread for you if you want.

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01-24-2008 , 05:44 PM

#12

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolmoedee

I know when they will win and when they will lose

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01-24-2008 , 05:53 PM

#13

coolmoedee

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 964

LOL.....you guys make me laugh, only because I must make you guys laugh and then I think about you thinking about me and I laugh even more. I will start a thread after the All star break that focuses purely on the Oilers. I will be one unit a game (with or against the oilers) and see how I do. Does anyone think that following one team this closely gives you any kind of edge? I mean I might as well be in the locker room before every game.

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01-24-2008 , 06:12 PM

#14

Performify

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,170

Expert level knowledge in a sport, team, division, conference, whatever, can certainly be a component of a winning approach to sports betting.

That said, 99% of the time, die-hard fans of a team are often the absolute worst at trying to accurately handicap said team.

-P

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01-24-2008 , 06:16 PM

#15

Stephen H

H for Vendettas

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 6,209

Quote:

Originally Posted by Performify

If you want to start predicting win / lose for the Oilers and do so against the moneyline, great. I can re-title this thread for you if you want.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolmoedee

I will start a thread after the All star break that focuses purely on the Oilers. I will be one unit a game (with or against the oilers) and see how I do. Does anyone think that following one team this closely gives you any kind of edge? I mean I might as well be in the locker room before every game.

If you do this, and actually spend a little bit of time to include the best Widely Available moneyline you can find at the time of your pick, that exercise could very likely help you become a better sports better. That sounds like an edge to me.

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01-24-2008 , 10:42 PM

#16

shipitkthx

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

I swear to god if they don't cover the puck line i'm holding OP personally responsible.

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01-24-2008 , 11:04 PM

#17

shipitkthx

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

Wow OP u are lucky

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01-24-2008 , 11:42 PM

#18

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

Quote:

Originally Posted by igetbadbeat

15.5u to win 21u on oilers

Ship Ship, SICK game. I'm becoming a hockey fan

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01-24-2008 , 11:44 PM

#19

shipitkthx

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by igetbadbeat

Ship Ship, SICK game. I'm becoming a hockey fan

Nothing like 2 goals in 31 seconds at the end of regulation and then a shootout win with a 36.5 unit swing riding on it rofl. How's your heart feeling?

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01-24-2008 , 11:45 PM

#20

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

Nothing like 2 goals in 31 seconds at the end of regulation and then a shootout win with a 36.5 unit swing riding on it rofl. How's your heart feeling?

It's fine, I just woke up. Went to bed before the game started.

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01-24-2008 , 11:46 PM

#21

shipitkthx

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by igetbadbeat

It's fine, I just woke up. Went to bed before the game started.

HAHAHAHA, plz be leveling me.

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01-24-2008 , 11:51 PM

#22

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

I'm smelling Assani sized units

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01-24-2008 , 11:59 PM

#23

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

HAHAHAHA, plz be leveling me.

haha nah man, I'm serious. Emotions suck with regard to gambling...even in poker if I get all in I don't bother to watch teh cards fall, I just check the end result

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01-25-2008 , 12:50 AM

#24

igetbadbeat

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,964

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

I'm smelling Assani sized units

I don't know what those are but I can guess. I do keep a separate roll for my actual sportsbetting(fights only) and my BS bankroll which I use to bet on all other sports that I have no expertise in but simply attempt to judge what are winning recommended plays.

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01-25-2008 , 01:36 AM

#25

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by igetbadbeat

haha nah man, I'm serious. Emotions suck with regard to gambling...even in poker if I get all in I don't bother to watch teh cards fall, I just check the end result

that's good because I think stars puts more bad beats on those that check the cards falling

at least I notice more bad beats when I watch the cards fall

DUCY?

in all seriousness, that is the correct philosophy to have... once you bet, it's gone... just trust the process

of course, sometimes I get the thrill of watching my bets

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