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Oil tonight, +EV Oil tonight, +EV

01-24-2008 , 01:54 PM
I know im going to get flamed but I live in edmonton, follow the oilers hard, have season tickets and basically watch every minute of all their games. Rick J agrees with me tonight to combat all the guys who think im an idiot. Reasoning is simple even if you dont know the oil. They have their best line up (- torres) of the year plus Garon is starting. Florida has 8 players out.

Bet the OILERS!
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01-24-2008 , 02:33 PM
I thought this thread was going to be about the price of crude oil on the market.
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01-24-2008 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
I know im going to get flamed but I live in edmonton, follow the oilers hard, have season tickets and basically watch every minute of all their games. Rick J agrees with me tonight to combat all the guys who think im an idiot. Reasoning is simple even if you dont know the oil. They have their best line up (- torres) of the year plus Garon is starting. Florida has 8 players out.

Bet the OILERS!
The reasoning should be about their chance of winning relative to the price you get.
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01-24-2008 , 02:46 PM
Already on them at +140. Also got Dallas at -130 over Buffalo(what am I missing there?).
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01-24-2008 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hedgie43
The reasoning should be about their chance of winning relative to the price you get.

Fair enough. They win this game around 60% of the time IMO and are paying like 35%
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01-24-2008 , 03:16 PM
35% is about +186

which is pretty far from +140
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01-24-2008 , 03:24 PM
15.5u to win 21u on oilers
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01-24-2008 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmoedee
Fair enough. They win this game around 60% of the time IMO and are paying like 35%
If you really think this you should be 30% of your bankroll on the bet.
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01-24-2008 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by centris
If you really think this you should be 30% of your bankroll on the bet.
Thank you J.L. Kelly. and actually, if those numbers are correct, then you should be 30% of your bankroll.
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01-24-2008 , 04:05 PM
I just pulled those number out of thin air......all i'm saying is bet on the oil tonight. I actually should start a thread because I know when they will win and when they will lose after watching them this long......i just can never bring myself to betting against them
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01-24-2008 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmoedee
I actually should start a thread
You've started several. You definitely don't need another one right now.

If you want to start predicting win / lose for the Oilers and do so against the moneyline, great. I can re-title this thread for you if you want.
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01-24-2008 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmoedee
I know when they will win and when they will lose
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01-24-2008 , 05:53 PM
LOL.....you guys make me laugh, only because I must make you guys laugh and then I think about you thinking about me and I laugh even more. I will start a thread after the All star break that focuses purely on the Oilers. I will be one unit a game (with or against the oilers) and see how I do. Does anyone think that following one team this closely gives you any kind of edge? I mean I might as well be in the locker room before every game.
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01-24-2008 , 06:12 PM
Expert level knowledge in a sport, team, division, conference, whatever, can certainly be a component of a winning approach to sports betting.

That said, 99% of the time, die-hard fans of a team are often the absolute worst at trying to accurately handicap said team.

-P
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01-24-2008 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Performify
If you want to start predicting win / lose for the Oilers and do so against the moneyline, great. I can re-title this thread for you if you want.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmoedee
I will start a thread after the All star break that focuses purely on the Oilers. I will be one unit a game (with or against the oilers) and see how I do. Does anyone think that following one team this closely gives you any kind of edge? I mean I might as well be in the locker room before every game.
If you do this, and actually spend a little bit of time to include the best Widely Available moneyline you can find at the time of your pick, that exercise could very likely help you become a better sports better. That sounds like an edge to me.
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01-24-2008 , 10:42 PM
I swear to god if they don't cover the puck line i'm holding OP personally responsible.
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01-24-2008 , 11:04 PM
Wow OP u are lucky
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01-24-2008 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by igetbadbeat
15.5u to win 21u on oilers
Ship Ship, SICK game. I'm becoming a hockey fan
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01-24-2008 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by igetbadbeat
Ship Ship, SICK game. I'm becoming a hockey fan
Nothing like 2 goals in 31 seconds at the end of regulation and then a shootout win with a 36.5 unit swing riding on it rofl. How's your heart feeling?
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01-24-2008 , 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shipitkthx
Nothing like 2 goals in 31 seconds at the end of regulation and then a shootout win with a 36.5 unit swing riding on it rofl. How's your heart feeling?
It's fine, I just woke up. Went to bed before the game started.
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01-24-2008 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by igetbadbeat
It's fine, I just woke up. Went to bed before the game started.
HAHAHAHA, plz be leveling me.
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01-24-2008 , 11:51 PM
I'm smelling Assani sized units
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01-24-2008 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shipitkthx
HAHAHAHA, plz be leveling me.


haha nah man, I'm serious. Emotions suck with regard to gambling...even in poker if I get all in I don't bother to watch teh cards fall, I just check the end result
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01-25-2008 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise
I'm smelling Assani sized units
I don't know what those are but I can guess. I do keep a separate roll for my actual sportsbetting(fights only) and my BS bankroll which I use to bet on all other sports that I have no expertise in but simply attempt to judge what are winning recommended plays.
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01-25-2008 , 01:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by igetbadbeat
haha nah man, I'm serious. Emotions suck with regard to gambling...even in poker if I get all in I don't bother to watch teh cards fall, I just check the end result
that's good because I think stars puts more bad beats on those that check the cards falling


at least I notice more bad beats when I watch the cards fall



DUCY?




in all seriousness, that is the correct philosophy to have... once you bet, it's gone... just trust the process

of course, sometimes I get the thrill of watching my bets
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