and you'll probably be up 25k or so on those prop bets

Been busy. By end of week, promise.

Why are my overtime O/U losses always 3 or 4 times the bet-size as my overtime wins?

God

So I layed a bet at 5dimes on Indiana+23.5 vs. Wake after the market had pretty much completely moved the line to 23. About 5 minutes later to my suprise, 5dimes moved this line all the way to 22, while the market had remained pretty steady at 23...

So I was wondering, would 5dimes care if I middled them, since it seemed pretty clear they overreacted?

^^^^^ It's 5Dimes. They'll probably care.

that would be great, but i don't know.

i haven't been following them but i know i had overs of some people who are now benched or injured. i set it up to autograde at the end of the season based on the stats on nfl.com. i hope it works because i don't want to go through 400 or so bets manually and see what happened

did kenpom stop posting his projected scores?

I believe he stopped doing a lot of that stuff. Or does he not start the scores until later in the year?

They care about bad lines but have never given me any **** for middling them on close to market lines.

You know you're a degen when it hurts more when you don't bet more on a winning bet than it does when you straight up a lose a bet.

Semi-tilt induced bet from JaMarcus Russell getting knocked out with 9 completions before halftime:

Spurs make first 3-pointer of game before Nuggets at -130. The Spurs average 7.6 per game, the Nuggets 5.8. Half of the Nuggets total comes from J.R. Smith and Kleiza, both bench players. Chauncey Billups is the biggest threat out of the ten starting lineup players, though he makes half as many as the Spurs starting lineup. I'll take Parker/Ginobili/Finley/Bonner.

fair line for detroit to go 0-16??

i thought there was a thread, but it was the dolphins, and my brother was asking...

dunno if that warranted a new thread or not..

If you thought manually inputting all the possible combinations for Wong teasers for an abnormally large week was tedious, you haven't seen anything until you have 20 teams to round robin. I'm not quite sure how to attack this other than learning to program which I should learn anyway.

wtf are you RRing?

A type of 2-team teaser.

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=36829

Friend sent me this, 2 years old but funniest ****ing **** i've heard in a long time.

From the article:

When police arrived, the teens allegedly told officers that they were raising money to buy a lighter to smoke a "very large" marijuana joint made out of several dollar bills.


might be because i am high but i ****ing lost it when i saw the very large in quotation marks.

I bumped up the old Dolphins thread last month.

Apropos of nothing, if a book is offering "free points" on sides for teams that you list as your "favorite" in NBA/NCAAB/NFL/NCAAF, is there an optimal team selection strategy? For example, teams that tend to play in low-scoring games? Or teams whose lines tend to lie near key numbers (to the extent that it's predictable)?

Wait till near kickout and choose the biggest edges first.

Sorry, forgot to mention one HUGE detail -- the teams you select are locked in for the season.

I know. Just play the biggest ones the first and let God find his own.

o/u on the number of props threads MYDAYJOB starts for bowl season 32.5 (i figure 2 seperate threads for bcs championship game

I did this at VIP, took Tampa and NYG as they were medium looking teams that had +3/-3 week one (and seemed likely to have many others).

I was restricted to $50 week two onwards on any bets on the site

Lori

Something I want to gripe about:

I keep hearing alot talk on the boards about FO stats being wrong, DVOA being inaccurate, LOL FO PLAYOFF ODDS etc. While it's clear that they aren't gambling experts, alot of the talk here is unjustified.

DVOA/DYAR/etc. is like any other metric you use - it must be used in context, which FO does. DVOA clearly states that it's only an analysis on past events and doesn't account for injuries or other lineup changes in predicting future performance. FO does not recommend on betting DVOA blindly.

Their playoff predictions clearly state that the numbers they run are based on current standings + tiebreaker, with the only real variable being current DVOA. If you assume that a teams DVOA is actually different from how it has played thus far this year, you will get a different playoff% result, which does not contradict their stats, it merely applies them correctly.

Also, they pick at a pretty good clip in an efficient market.