Right. Locks, without the spread.

There are no locks. We won't answer until you edit that word out.

Indeed, there are no locks. How about "closest to a lock" or "which teams have the best chance of winning their bowl game." On the flip side, which games are simply too close to call.

I feel confident that Georgia, BYU, Rutgers (ZOMG LOCKZ) and VT are solids for you. Florida, too.

Adding WV +7.5

I would be curious to know how teams have performed ATS when they had a different coach for their bowl game than they did during the regular season. One would assume that they do worse overall, but do the lines overcompensate for this?

I put 2u on Oklahoma -7 +100 yesterday after the Rodriguez hiring was announced.

jhennis,
you sure seem to like the SEC

I'm most confident in BC ATS--they match up really well

FWIW so is everyone else

I know, but Mark May picked Michigan St

That made me more confident


It's just a dream matchup
Great rush defense of BC verse MSU (look at MSU offense verse tOSU, Michigan)
Great pass offense of BC with a rush threat verse MSU defense

I hate being on such a consensous pick and it's the main reason it's a 4 unit play instead of a 5 unit

I have MichSt as surprisingly close to BC, +4 looks interesting, and if it goes up I will def be backing the dog. As you say, everyone is seemingly on BC but spread hasn't moved at CRIS since Dec 3rd.

I am shocked you are that confident. Last few weeks - Loss at Buxis by 7. Almost beat Mich. Beat 8-3 PSU with big comeback. 17-pt win @Purdue.
Earlier 3 pt loss at Wisky.

Oregon .5 +261/1u u52
Memphis 2u +126
Utah -8 1u
Cinn -10.5 2u
NM -3 2u
Boise -10 1u
ASU 2u +123
Mich St 1u +156 1u +3.5
TCU -4 2u
OreSt -5 2u
UCONN +3 ,5u .5u +132
AF 1u +145
Fresno 1u +174
Kent -1.5 2u
Ill +13.5 2u .5 +404
WVU 2u +8 +248
Kansas 1u +3.5 1u +151
Ball St +10 1u
BGreen 1u +4.5 1u +176
OhioSt 1u +4 1u +166
Hawaii +11 -105 2u

my list.

BTW, locks with no spread?

Cincy is the biggest. I'd take Boise St. at #2, but then again, ECU ain't bad. Next I take Florida. Then USC (though you can see I have an ill ML bet.) Finally Utah.

As far as BC/Mich St, I wish I had checked in here before betting it. It was the only bet my partner in crime and I disagreed on, and actually, we're betting the pointspread against each other. I look at their schedules and don't see how this game isn't a pickem. Hell, Sag even has Mich St favored by a point.

On Hawaii, the line has moved favorably, so I might pick up 1u on Georgia now and root for a middle. Hawaii has always tended to get action closer to kickoff, so I'll continue to wait on that though. Hopefully the pre-game hype will highlight OU/BSU last year and a bunch of fish will pile on Hawaii.

WVU started as a 1u play for me. My buddy had it as 2u at 6.5. The line change made me move it 2u, and my buddy's opinion helped kick it up to 3u. I don't care about RR leaving. This team will still get fired up for this game.

Air Force and Fresno State are both gut picks which don't disagree with the numbers, but both are games that numbers don't support betting either way. I see both of these teams being far more excited about their bowl games than their power-conference opponents. Also, both schools are closer to the Bowl site then their opponents. That might matter?

I have to laugh at the guy who was "betting VaTech all the way to 13.5."

hmm... no auburn, no Bama, no Miss St, no Kentucky.... If Hennis isn't betting on these SEC teams, maybe the rest of us should look at the other side.... BTW, NINE SEC TEAMS IN BOWLS!!!!! And South Caraloina isn't one of them. Remember when they were top 5 in the country?

When the lines first came out, my initial thought was... "man, I'm going to be betting a lot of dogs this bowl season." I'm betting 7 favs and 14 dogs. In general, I hate betting that -3.5 line. To bet it, I need to think the fav should really by favored by more than a TD.

I think an under 68.5 on the UGA/UH game is solid value. Examine a few games that might resemble this one.

Wash. 35-28, total 63 points. Hawaiis only game against a major conference team this year, and a bad one at that. Also, had Wash. continued running the ball well, they win the game and UH never approaches 30 points.

Last year,
at Alabama 25-17, 42 total points.
at ASU 41-24, 65 total points
OSU 35-32, 67 total points.

Different year, but UH's bigtime games that year they didnt pass 68.5 once. And i think UGA's defense has gotten much much better since the beginning of the year, and has a couple of impressive performances. I don't expect this game to be 41-28, i'd think 35-21 or 31-24 is closer to reality.

I'm in a pool where you pick 15 of the bowl games against the spread, including all 5 BCS games, and each game carries action points ( similar to a lightning bet, if anyone knows that term). In other words, you take LSU -5, they win 30-10, you get a plus 15 for that game. They lose 30-10, and you take a -25. You also need to designate 3 of the games to count double.

So, any suggestions, re: blowout potential/ isolation (trying to make your plus two games as strong as possible while staying away from consensus picks?)

i cant believe anyone would take kansas +3.5

if anyone wants to take kansas +3.5, ill take vt -3.5 ill do that for up to 1k. lmk

I'll do it for 500. Would gladly do it for the full 1000 if I didn't have that much Kansas +3.5 already.

You are fine w/ letting Performify hold the money on Stars I assume?

OK, I will take Kansas +3.5 for $1K at even money.

How do you want to proceed? Do you want to escrow?

Hey! I was first!

Sorry about that. When I hit "reply" your post was not there. I guess I took too long to hit "submit".

He can go $500 with each of us, since that is what you wanted anyway.

Sounds good to me. Sorry to impugn your baller-age.

drbob released, looks like
Hawaii
Auburn
Florida
Uconn
cent mich
boise
ucla
navy
Okla
GaTech
Nevada

but haven't seen words, just checking lines. GT moved -4.5 to 6 in a hurry. Hawaii's gone from 8.5 down to 7, but still 8.5 at sia.

Looks like I'm gonna have to make a big play on the ****in Bulldogs. Think it'll keep going and cross the 7?

ya ive been PM'ing with bills217 back and forth. he said ur each taking 500. i think he sent his 500 to performify and i just sent him my 1k.