what is the proper way to note parlays in personal records, like this week im 5-2 on picks but i won a 4 team parlay, and 3 of those parlay picks i also made as regular picks, so is this a 6-2 day because i made the parlay pick right, a 6-2 day cause i made my normal picks and 1 extra in the parlay, a 9-2 day, or what?

If you post it as "(percentage ROI)" or as "+(number) units". It would make things more clear, I'd say the correct post would be 6-2 sidenote of "+(number) units" and maybe even making note that a parlay was one of those picks. Since you probably wagered only 1 unit on the parlay (or less) and also chances are, if you lost that parlay your record today would have been posted as 5-3 not 5-6, right? Human nature...Anyway that my 2cents

yeah, i've been keeping track in units and record, units is easy in this case, im just wondering what the consensus on so i dont have bad records. lets say i had 4 picks i didn't pick in my normal picks, how would i report that if i won that and how would i report that if i lost that, again assuming i went 5-2 on other picks

I report parlay and moneyline records separate from ATS/OU/evenprop records

I always post units bet and units won

Alright I see, I was under the impression the parlay picks were also part of your ML/Spread individuals but imo if it involved 4 plays which weren't part of you're 5-2 record then I see no reason not to post the record as 9-2 for the day. I mean technically they are all individual picks even if they are dependent on eachother as far as the money goes. Hopefully more people chime in to give you concensus but thats what I think...either way nice record

thx, im sure most of it was running hot tho, only my second week putting money down, so far in 8-5 and ~+11u

Ugh, Boston was ~-125 to win tonight's game, and yet Bodog had a prop up today where you could bet up to $500 at 6/5 on a boston sweep....

I hope people got on the over $18m as that was such a gimmie. It looks like saw IV will end somewhere around $32m. Bodog already paid the under $33.7m, which is a bit odd since final numbers haven't come out (although estimates have it easily under 33.7m).

Thanks for the tip Utah, I got on that Saw IV prop just in time. Dali, what plan of action do you have for your bookie? How far behind is he on his payout? He must be having a bad year with some of the shading that vegas is making against the sharp money this year. I'm interested to hear how your buddy is doing this season who has been losing to this guy perenially. Hope you get that resolved.

Anyone have any thoughts on this prop?


What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?
Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action. No refunds. No Parlays. Max $100

Boston Red Sox - 11/2
Chicago Cubs - 4/1
Detroit Tigers - 5/1
Los Angeles Angels - 3/1
Los Angeles Dodgers - 7/2
New York Mets - 8/1
New York Yankees - 5/1
Philadelphia Phillies - 9/1
San Francisco Giants - 10/1
Field (Any Other Team) - 5/2


Red Sox - no, have Lowell.
Cubs - no, unless Cuban gets the team which I don't see happening.
Dodgers - no
Tigers - maybe, just got Renteria at SS, but A Rod is too big to play SS now IMO. Have Inge at third, but they could get rid of him easily.
Mets - no money, already have David Wright
Yankees - no, they'll look like fools if they do
Phillies - no idea
Giants - have spent big money before. sold tons of tickets on bonds name alone, could do the same with a rod since he's projected to beat bonds record
Field - Braves have been dumping a lot of salary, but I don't think they'd really drop 35 mil for him. White Sox - maybe. Rest I don't think so.


i'm leaning towards bets on Tigers and Giants

I dont really have much comment other than lowell is a FA

Do any of the major sports betting sites have peer to peer transfers? I'd really like to get a few K on one but p2p seems like the only way I could do it.

Giants line looks interesting. Why did you eliminate the Angels from consideration?

Does anyone know when the banks need to start reporting my transactions? I need to take about $50,000 out of my bank account this week and send them to the books. I must do it this week because I leave for Russia next Monday and will be gone for 2-3 months min.

I believe the banks need to report anything over $10,000. However, will they report if I take $9,000 out each day?

Thanks

you can get nailed for structuring and a suspicious activity report filed againist you which would likely trigger attention you really don't want your way

Utah,

What you're asking about -- Structuring, i.e. specifically arranging transactions to avoid the Bank Secrecy Act -- is a very serious crime, with very serious jail time and/or fines attached.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/ht...4----000-.html

The Bank Secrecy Act makes a Suspicious Activity Report mandatory on anything over 10k, but with BSA SAR procedures in place, if you pull out 50k in a weeks time no matter how you do it, you're going to get a SAR filed, even if you (illegally structure to) make transactions of 5k each.

Short, direct answer: if you're pulling 50k out of your account this week, you're getting a SAR filed, no matter how you do it.

But if you're regularly traveling to Russia you're already on the terrorist list anyways, so its not exactly the top of your worry list.

-P

so is it best just to pull the $50k at one time and let them file a damn report? What do they do with such reports. Do they send in a team to do surveillance on me?

Yes, they're going to file regardless if you're pulling out 50k in cash in a week, so its best if you pull out the money in whatever time is convenient for you -- I assume that's $50k in a single chunk as you're going to have to go in to the bank to pull it out.

All it means is a report gets filed to the Department of the Treasury and to the IRS. FinCEN isn't likely do do anything, especially if this is a single transaction and not a regular parttern. If you're routinely withdrawing big chunks of money and traveling overseas, who knows what kind of attention you're drawing inside the DoTres or DoJ.

The IRS will simply get notification that you've withdrawn the money -- I'm assuming you're paying taxes on whatever hits your bank account regardless, but if for some reason if you're not, know that the IRS will have a record of 50k leaving your account on this date in their files/etc.

-P

Snooker- The Northern Ireland Trophy- 4th Nov

Ian McCulloch vs Alan McManus

McCulloch -115 Pinny
McManus +125 Bodog

Hmmmm, who knows Snooker better Pinny or Bodog?

Skybet: McCulloch 5/6, McManus, 5/6
Paddy Power: McCulloch 4/6, McManus 11/10

Pinny line has moved to -124/+114 now.

Ship it. Still gotta love bodog.

EV question (sort of) regarding Pleaser bets - non-wong teasers and parlays are more -EV than straight wagers, however, not all teasers are created equal. Teasers across the 0 are just awful, whereas wong-ian teasers are +EV.

Now does the same logic apply to pleaser bets? More specifically, is 'pleasing' across the 0 (from +3 to -3, for example) a great 'please'? 3 team pleasers, for example, as WSEX offers them, are -6, $1700/$100. I suspect Pinnacle's point system would give me a quick and dirty answer (where you can work out the money line from the points and see if you finish out ahead, then give a little....fudge factor for the fact that you're going across the zero), but I haven't looked at it.

The problem with pleasing from +3 to -3 is that you're still moving off of a 3 and onto a 3. The push frequencies for 0, 1, and 2 are really low but the frequency for 3 is so high that it counteracts it. I guess your best bet here would be to please across whichever 6 point inclusive range has the lowest total push frequency. If you had a really huge line, like 24 or greater, that would be ideal, but the chances of two such lines occurring in the same week are obviously extremely low. It looks like the best 6 point inclusive range for realistic lines is [7.5,13.5]. The only bad number you're crossing is 10 (4.9% push), and all the other numbers are 2.2% or less. I'd have to do the math to figure out whether such a pleaser would be +EV, but it seems possible.

Hmm, quick math shows that this is actually really bad. If the pleaser pays 6:1, then you need both games to win with prob. > ~38%. Even in the best case, with both games going from +7.5 to +13.5, each games winning prob. goes from 50% to about 29%. Somebody can double-check me on this, but it looks like these bets are even more -EV than I thought.

For 3 teams at 17:1 it works out about the same. You still need each team to have a winning % > 38%, which just isn't going to be possible in the NFL.

It might be worth looking into the numbers for college, where you have more large spreads and the push frequencies for the key numbers are lower.