I said I misspoke. Wasn't the beggining of the season.

what is with you dude? youre ****ing creepy

Anyone know of a book that will let me parlay series winners? Ex: I want to parlay MTL, TB and NYR to win their first round series'. Bet365 accepted these bets in the 2014 playoffs. I was quite surprised to not quickly find this bet available again this year.

B..km@kr allows it. P|nnkul doesn't.

Cheers

Montreal to win series 4-1 +550

Bet all the dogs except Calgary and Minnesota to win first round series.
OTT +135
NYI +120
NSH +125
PIT +210
DET +175
WPG +140

Gaps just are not as much as people think. Hell, Nsh should be favored. People caught up in recent form per the usual.

Pierre McGuire agrees this is a good year for dogs

After a good couple year run for fancystats, got my head crushed in this year. My bets were very bad OT teams.

straight goals for/goals against crushing score-adjusted fenwick model

yea same kinda. I had a lot of the same teams as you in the first round and I dont think I won a single series bet. I did really good in props this year but I think that was mostly due to playing at an absolute brain dead book that offered shot totals for players that were shockingly off.

Itll be interesting to see what the future holds for advanced metrics in hockey. Fenwick and corsi dont impress me that much (I think its hilarious that it took everyone so long to come up with them in first place). Theres been talk of putting chips on the players to track their movement. I suppose that could lead to some sort of a break through but I cant think of anything really that you could quantify that way. Hockey is just such a tough sport to quantify at all, with players coming on and off the ice with no stoppages and offense and defense being one in the same. I would LOVE to see what teams like CHI and LAK and maybe the Bruins use in house to evaluate players as I would imagine its more complex than counting shots that miss the net.

well, as with all sports, you don't need to get too complex in your model to have a decent prediction. Look under the hood at some of the power numbers in various sports and the minimal efforts which go into them.

I use a score adjusted Fenwick for all situations as my base and small adjustments from there. It's been decent thus far, but I got shellacked in this round.

Explicitly, I agree with RickySteve that the fancystat consensus of only using 5v5 close is off-the-mark. I, also, believe blocked shots is a skill so I like Fenwick over Corsi. I prefer Fenwick to goals as a less luck based measure. Though, there are some adjustments I make as I believe there is a role played by shot quality as well as quantity and that quality chances are not directly proportional to a team's Fenwick.

in the end, cool samples sizes is what I will dismiss the first round as. Surely, my greenbacks will have a OT win pct > .125 going forward.

oh yeah, what RickySteve posted with adjusting to quality of opponent is something NHL fancystaters have not yet begun to really put out there. It's kind of funny since it's one of the first adjustments almost every other sport advanced guys put into the black box. Those Central division teams this year were monsters. Of course, playoffs are not exactly the same game.

NHL schedule is balanced-ish enough that SoS isn't a massive factor but certainly non-zero.

I'll tell you what definitely isn't a skill: going 35-1-7 in one-goal games. Go Reversion! Go Unfooled! Go Flames!

Bet all 4 underdogs in this round... less on Flames ... some donk book has Caps +160 if you're looking to follow me on my favorite bet which will likely lose.
Minny +120
TB -105
Easily available.
Flames +197

I have Wash +170 and +1.5 -130. Also flames +195 which I hate.

With low confidence I priced 2nd round

NYR -168
MON +114
ANA -112
CHI -123

so who thinks the Caps are gonna win it all?

i think all betting aside I would like to see them win it. I like ovechkin and backstrom is one of the most underrated players in the game. Hockey could use a boost in washington. Def dont want a canadian team to do it, tampa and anahiem dont deserve it, and NY nor CHI need it. So lets go wash!

I completely agree just wish I could put some money on it somehow

35-1-8

Got Ducks @ -125 on pinny which seems amazing, thought I'd pass it on before it moves up

seems amazing is a good system

Cool, I love talking this stuff. I just love how far analytics has come yet I also know how much farther they can go. Just watching a hockey game with analytics on your mind, you see soooo many important things that just dont get quantified. I mean in some ways they do, as anything that is good for your team will eventually lead to better fenwick numbers, but theres still so many more interesting ways to quantify hockey.

An idea I had would be to track assists (primary and secondary) on fenwick events. Im surprised that isnt out there yet actually. I also dont really like that every shot is considered equal and I think the next wave of hockey analytics will address shot quality. Its also interesting that goalie stats are largely random year to year.

places are tracking shot quality... just not much out there publicly
there are some goalie stats which break it down by such and, unsurprisingly, it makes goalie stats look less random

zone entries/exits and faceoffs are all over

Then again, I'm getting absolutely blitzed this year after crushing the past few years in series/playoff bets. So, maybe, all I know is wrong. Funny, the one series I won in the last round was largely due to Carey Price <.900 save pct