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11-05-2009 , 08:14 AM

HoldingFolding

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,652

Anyone see any value (either backing or laying) in the Betfair market?

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?m...x=1&origin=MRL

Laying Ivey's probably the way to go (but my heart's not in it...)

Darvin Moon - 58,930,000
Eric Buchman - 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter - 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman - 19,580,000
Joseph Cada - 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel - 12,390,000
Phil Ivey - 9,765,000
Antoine Saout - 9,500,000
James Akenhead - 6,800,000

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11-05-2009 , 09:06 AM

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Since there are essentially 3 short stacks any player with a decent stack has some extra EV imo. The per round cost is 630k to start. Not sure when the blinds are going up but this puts Akenhead at an M of 10, and Ivey and Saout at 15. Very quickly they are push/fold. Also money flows clockwise....

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11-05-2009 , 09:15 AM

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

Just noticed this thread, will paste what I psoted over at NVG:

Quote:

I think people overestimate the strength of skill in just 1 final table. Regardless of the deep stack factor, Moon should be a big fav for this bet. BS about Moon being no chance HU, actually BS on most of the pro Ivey posts that lack logic.

I price Moon at about 3/1 to win this and have backed him for my limit, also layed Ivey who I thought should be about 10/1 or longer.

What would be interesting is pricing a matchup bet between Ivey and Moon on who finishes higher. A lot to take into consideration. I'm actually thinking Ivey should be fav to bust out first over the other short stacks due to him going only for the win. 8/1 for Ivey to beat Moon might be about right. This is just for entertainment purposes but would anyone take / lay 8/1 on Ivey v Moon matchup?

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11-05-2009 , 09:21 AM

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

I see value in Moon 5.40 and maybe begleiter 8.00, not sure about that one yet. Lay Ivey def, and also the other short stacks I make 20/1 or higher.

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11-05-2009 , 10:33 AM

loosekanen

USA#1, Oh Yeah!

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 27,838

I'll take your 8/1 action on Ivey's side against Moon in a last longer for up to 500. PM for details.

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11-05-2009 , 11:20 AM

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by loosekanen

I'll take your 8/1 action on Ivey's side against Moon in a last longer for up to 500. PM for details.

I'm new here and not really into booking poker props at the internet hub of poker knowledge and analysis, was just tossing a number out there.

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11-05-2009 , 01:35 PM

cookieb

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,268

3/1 is pretty widely available for Ivey to outlast Moon, or at least it was last week. I think there is a lot of value in Moon on that bet.

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11-05-2009 , 02:06 PM

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookieb

3/1 is pretty widely available for Ivey to outlast Moon, or at least it was last week. I think there is a lot of value in Moon on that bet.

Who's booking this? Looks like excellent value.

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11-05-2009 , 02:10 PM

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

I am too dumb to figure this out, but after I read the odds I want to lay Ivey but can't figure out how to do it. I'm US so I can't use betfair. Was trying to Bodog it, but it seems you can only bet who will win, not who will not win. Can anyone help me out? I want to bet $1000 to win $286 that Ivey will not win (7:2 odds being offered).

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11-05-2009 , 02:31 PM

#10

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

^ Matchbook?

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11-05-2009 , 02:33 PM

#11

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

The pinnacle 'NO' price is better than the Matchbook lay ATM

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11-05-2009 , 02:59 PM

#12

cookieb

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by keemao

Who's booking this? Looks like excellent value.

Bodog currently has it at -250 +200, which is insane imo. They also have Shuman at even to outlast Begleiter, which I think is some decent value.

Of course these are $50 max, so meh. I swear I saw them elsewhere, but a quick glance shows only "to win" lines at other places I frequent.

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11-05-2009 , 03:14 PM

#13

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

^ Meh is right. Paddy also have had value in the past at meh limits but cant access them right now. Haven't found anywhere else apart from win either

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11-05-2009 , 03:25 PM

#14

apaugust

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 330

Ivey is taken it down... it's his time. They will rig the deck for sure.

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11-05-2009 , 03:59 PM

#15

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

Pinnacle doesn't accept US. Just checked matchbook and it's offering 7:1 that Ivey will win. It's no wonder Bodog won't accept the other bet, because they just rape their customers by offering 3.5:1 while refusing to offer both sides of the bet.

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11-05-2009 , 04:01 PM

#16

keemao

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 26

^ yeah thats bodog

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11-05-2009 , 09:26 PM

#17

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,896

took Moon over Ivey at -250.

*crosses fingers God-mode doesn't come out*

i mean, really, logically, how can that NOT be a good bet, even with Ivey having position on him? i feel like I would be a favorite in Moon's spot, and he's had to have had some coaching, yes?

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11-05-2009 , 09:28 PM

#18

apaugust

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 330

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

Because Ivey re-raises preflop with 62o.

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11-05-2009 , 09:49 PM

#19

cecil

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 64

are akenhead and saout the only two foreign born players at the table?

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11-05-2009 , 10:12 PM

#20

ClayRaiken

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 402

Quote:

Originally Posted by cecil

are akenhead and saout the only two foreign born players at the table?

yes

Bodog made a mistake and offered two different different lines on each player for a while. I was happy to get Akenhead @ 22:1.

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11-05-2009 , 11:20 PM

#21

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,896

Quote:

Originally Posted by apaugust

Because Ivey re-raises preflop with 62o.

well then, that makes me terrified that he'll outlast a random with 6.5x his stack.

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11-06-2009 , 01:54 PM

#22

aa45955

Guest

Posts: n/a

I think a lot of these odds are just stupid and I want to bet on them.

Where can I do it safely?

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11-06-2009 , 05:00 PM

#23

Squirrely1

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 235

Buchman +400

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11-06-2009 , 05:55 PM

#24

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

can bet on people to lose at 5d

low limits but you can bet it again in a couple minutes

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11-06-2009 , 06:35 PM

#25

$kill Game

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by *******

I think a lot of these odds are just stupid and I want to bet on them.

Where can I do it safely?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19.../index456.html

Rakefree!

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