I've been finding a lot of blatantly poor market prices on the NHL grand salami this season. Normally I have zero interest in providing positive guidance to anyone since it at least indirectly hurts me. On these particular bets, however, there is just so much value out there that I can't exploit. So for the few remaining weeks of the season I might as well spread some love around to the fine miserable folks here.

Please, a-holes, don't bet these at Pinnacle(!!) or Greek or Bookmaker/CRIS/et al. If I start seeing the screen go black, I go back into my cave.

And, of course, gamble at your own peril. No one runs better than me, but nothing puts the jinx on like posting picks.

Mazel tov!

NHL u8½ 1P -108 (-133.6), 5.50u to win 5.09u

(No value on the full game salami for the first time in weeks. Totally jinxed.)

Just curious, are you betting individual games too? Or are you saying the Salami line is not accounting for the individual games correctly?

Sorry, no comment.

I wouldn't trust me either.

Fair enough. I've spent some time thinking about it but never actually looked at the numbers, however it wouldn't surprise me if:

A. The original lines-makers have half-assed formulas for Salami's instead of running a sim
B. Whatever they do for games, I bet it's worse for 1st periods
C. The Salami line doesn't move automatically as the games move. i.e. A max bet on the under of every game would not move the Salami line (on Pinnacle).

Good luck, I'll keep an eye on it

3/29: NHL o28 -105(-111.3) 2.1u to win 2u

Correlations are going to be an annoyance for this exercise. Personally I'm constrained by liquidity not risk tolerance and I'm not going to waste my time calculating optimality just for the purpose of record-keeping. So either I ignore correlation or make guesstimates. Likely the latter.

ty

Where besides 5d can you even bet a 1st period salami? Greek? Pinny? Where else?

Also does anyone have a comment on NHL team totals? Seems they would be ripe for some of the same exploitation if what you're saying is true as far as adjustments and line movements. Although the high juice may prove me wrong.

I guess I wasn't clear. There will be no education in this thread.

3/30: NHL o51½ -102(-103.1) .255u to win .25u

Lots of places hanging 52. No value there unless you can get u52 reduced.

Cumulative Results: +3.04u, 7.81u risked, +39.0%

3/31: NHL o39½ -116 (-124.1) 2.9u to win 2.5u
NHL u11½ 1P +104 (-104.3) 2.75u to win 2.86u

Cumulative Results: +2.79u, 7.81u risked, +35.7%

The # in the bracket is your fair line?

Yes.

LMAO

LMAO

elemehoh

bump? Im seeing 46

I was making fun of your false internet bravado. A truthful admission is not what you want to counter with.

4/1: No official play.

I have u46½ lined -123.6 which can be beaten at select outs.

Cumulative Results: +2.75u, 13.46u risked, +20.4%

I saw 46 with the under shaded at -125 and -115 at a few places, so I made a small bet where I found u46 -110.

Are you finding that these lines are stale and slow to move? Or theyre off from the start?

Sort of sad to continue with you at this point.

I have u46 lined -109.

Thats interesting and thanks for the info.

I know you said you werent trying to educate and I understand that, but I added all the totals according to Pinny and got 43. I'm positive you have a much more advanced system than that obviously, but the only thing is that while I reached 43, the overs on all of the 5.5 are dogs. So just blindly adding 5.5's, even when the line is closer to 5, I still end up 3 goals under the Grand Salami. I don't see how the total can be 46.

I dunno I'm just thinking out loud. Thanks for the info so far though.

Doesn't work that way.

Yea I figured. I don't really understand how or why just yet though, but whatever keep up the good work!