[x] Sharks/Stars OVER 5.5 +105

Finally getting a decent price here and it looks like Stars offense might have some life left after all.

screwed up my ankle pretty good golfn yesterday(numerous surgeries on it from skating and snowboarding) so have some time on hands to work on model, screwing around w/ units and some other stuff put here is what it spit out i just wanted to preliminary post it if i forget to later(pain pills ahhhh)

Tampa Bay +110 - 1 unit
Florida +150 1 unit(injuries i think they are sick otherwise 2 unit) and over 1 unit
Atlanta -140 1 unit (again Habs are getting some players back so just a unit)
Buffalo -115 1 unit (really like Buff, they are my team w/ the Kings but this is a rivalry game and imo buff superior team esp @ goalie spot! but keep it safe @ a unit)
NY Rangers +100 .5 unit and over .5 unit @ +110
New Jersey +125 (model has it as a coin flip so ill take the +125 and look for devils to rebound-should be a great game) and under for 1 unit
Boston +105 1 unit and under 2 units
Colorado +120 1 unit and under for 2 units
Phoenix -150 1 unit and lean on under

Im making an massive amount of money tonight I can feel it haha.

Model is hot tonite...there will be NO 3rd period goals in wild/avs game tonite! One time!

can someone explain these lines to me?

In regulation only (no OT)
STL +0.5 -122
EDM -0.5 +114

CBUS +0.5 -122
EDM -0.5 +114

With OT/Shootout
STL +1.5 -237 ML +128
EDM -1.5 +216 ML -139

CBUS +1.5 -277 ML +128
PHO -1.5 +251 ML -139

ML and -0.5 lines are identical...but the -1.5 line was very different. +216 vs +251. Why? Something to do with the frequency of Columbus pulling their goalie late in the game when they are down by exactly 1?

empty net magic ftw

It's because Phoenix is such a low scoring team and plays in greater number of 1-goal games

Cammalleri, Plekanec, Bergeron, and Halak are effin studs all the way, man.

Game winner by Bergeron was phenomenal

You are talking out of your ass.


2009 1-goal games in the NHL: 48.8%
2009 Coyote 1-goal games: 47.2%

Next answer please.

oic...

9-3 not bad too nite...glad I didn't bet the skins and went 2-3 in football this weekend.I'm gonna post my stats etc of model tom. Shaping up nicely. Freaking avs tho...that team is going nowhere, nice D w/ 3-0 lead

God, Toronto almost pulled that one out!!!!

Pretty good night on the whole.


My picks for 12/22

Blackhawks -160 5 units

Nashville +130 2 units

Avalanche -135 2 units

Yesterday: +2 units.

I didn't bet Phi and again, don't recommend betting any team that is greater than -160. Risk not worth reward...

Tonight I like Ana at EV for 1 unit.

[x] Preds/Canucks OVER 5.5 +105

Priced not as good as couple of weeks ago, but Preds going ape**** with the scoring on both ends so worth a bet

ya i glanced over my sheets and this year im showing a profit on big favs but i usually like to parlay them w/ other big favs or the o/u bc ur right u have to lay a lot of dough. But -160 they just have to win more than 62% for it to me +ev. anyways back to model , up 6.2 units last nite freaking avs and would have been caked up. anyways back to the lab post my stats later....

Hockey is not a sport that can offer you these odds at a profitable rate. Way too much parity for you to reasonably expect a team to win 2/3rds of the time.

There are sports where a team can reasonably beat another 2/3rds of the time but they adjust the line accordingly and you will never be offered such "generous" odds to take such a gamble.

I also want to say here that I am a hardcore Buffalo Sabres fan and those of you betting the lowly leafs against my mighty Sabres....I hope you learned your lesson.

so far....i think i need to switch books/find another one that has 3 way lines bc my model doesnt include OT so it would make sense....

anyways maybe loc knows sometihng about b2b systems or something but i got

Avs -115 2 Unit
Sharks/Hawks Under 1 unit

still gotta work on some stufff w/ o/u and units appropriating dont think i will be touching the other game so only thing that may change is units...peace

If Wilson weren't so apparently stubborn to keep starting Toskala this year, Leafs wouldn't be in the ****house right now, imo. Going forward as Wilson comes to his senses, it wouldn't shock me if Leafs/Sabres flip-flop in the standings by season's end.

agreed. i still take them when accordingly but that is why i built the model to find good underdog plays, last nite i think 4 underdogs won? not sure but i know FLA was ~+150.


word! my pars are from buffalo before moving out to cali and Santa Barbara freaking Bills tho....least they got Juaron out there(i dont even care if i spelled his name wrong, **** him!)

**added Sharks +130 wow on paper this is going to be a good game.
Sharks Overall Scoring # 1 vs Blackhawks Overall Defense #1
Sharks Road Scoring #2 vs Blackhawks Home Defense #5

It will be a good game, but, take into account that Chicago has not lost at home since 12/4 and they are on a 3 game win streak.

On 11/25, last time these two matched up, they beat the Sharks in San Jose 7-2!!!

IMO its a lock on Chicago, I just wish I would have held out for a better line.

I am more than wiling to book action on this.

Shred- there is a big difference between -150 and -160. Also, I never said it wasn't profitable to bet +150 or greater...only to take the -160 plus..

Blackhawks go from -160 to -145

Avalanche go from -130 to -110

makes me sick. I thought for sure the Hawks line would have gone to -170 by game time when looking at the lines last night.

I mean, the Flyers were at -170 yesterday!!!

I wish I would have waited. What a good deal on Colorado at -110!!!!!!!

same

im confused...i agreed w/ you.....big favs got killed yesterday and FLA was a big dog +150 so im befuddled. However the diff b/w -150 and -160 is 2% winning percentage.....the real gnar ones are the -220 lines! perhaps you DO have a reading problem jk. LEts get caked up tonite

Hmmm I am not too sure about the shark under.....model is liking it but hmmm anyone really like the over?

Feeeling good about Sharks bet mit put some more $ down--heard the word LOCK on chicago, just like a few weeks ago w/ Pats vs Saints...lock of century hit the saints hard and then the halftime line hard

you Buffalo studs couldn't handle the juice on a bet like that