Been hot in the NFL so I'll start with this week's "DON'T GET TRAPPED!!!"

Miami +1 (yes the Miami that just lost to the Houston Texans, those lovable Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens) versus one loss Buffalo Bills with their sexy RB Marshawn Lynch. Those powerful Bills who just shut down LT and the team that lost in the AFC Championship Game

don't get trapped, they are just begging you B-E-G-G-I-N-G you to take the Bills

just remember that the Bills recently played on the road and got absolutely SHALLACKED SHELLACKED SEELACCKED by the Arizona Cardinals

Take Miami....they win by 10

another of the tamer variety

Carolina Panthers 30
New Orleans Saints 7.

Carolina -4 vs Arizona Cardinals at home

Don't get TA-RAP-DED

Arizona +4 off the bye week

Carolina usually plays ****ty as a favorite

I actually had Carolina as my biggest play of the season last week (check theinsideslant.com search FGators if you don't believe me) and I was thinking during that game...damn who the hell are they playing next week because they ain't covering back to back home games

enter the Cards off a bye

toss in the sketchy line from Vegas (they really think this Panthers team is a 1 point favorite if you remove HFA??? Wait Wat???)

and we have ourselves a nice little play on the improved Cards

Really like the Miami bet.

Not sure about the Cards one. Want to look at the numbers some more, but Arizona has been awful at home, and the Panthers have been pretty solid at home.

don't the cards have like a 20 point home field advantage

its pretty ridiculous

Cards Home/Away PD

2007: +37/-42
2006: -20/-55
2005: -1/-75

I mean, that's ridiculous.

Chiefs +13 -110
Steelers -2.5 -115

YTD: 10-5

I know all of this which is more reason for me to like the Cardinals.

This is why it's in my "Don't get trapped"

I like the Miami pick as well. But I wouldn't equate west coast away games with them staying on the east coast. And like said above, Arizona is solid at home.

Another reason for you liking the cards is how bad they have been away from home?
iirc, west coast teams are something like 0-9 out on the east coast this year.
I'm not so sure I am gonna fade you here until I look into it more(cards ATS off bye, Boldin etc) but I just can't get on the Cardinals when they come to the east coast(0-2 this year).

You're unfortunately correct that Buffalo will likely be a big square play this week, but wtf @ your explanation for Miami. For future reference, these threads are called "BSP's".

My whole "Arizona sucks away from home" reasoning has to do with that line (Carolina -4). It's super sketchy because I think it's widely known that the Cards are brutal away from their friendly confines so everyone's going to load up Carolina's recent games (or have the knowledge in the back of their head) and see the burial of the Saints along with the Cards recent adventures on the road and just pound the Panthers.

I had this line as Carolina -6.5 or thereabouts, not hanging around 4.

If you take out the 6 Seattle games, it looks a little less ridiculous, but that only carries a little bit of weight. I might go and figure out the Home/Away point diff for all east vs. west coast games. Unless someone has this info already?

I guess this supports your theory.

Carolina '05-'07
Home point diff -46
Away point diff +20

whats the rationale for this? can you do home/away splits ats for them? or teach me where to look it up?

oh i can check later when i get home [at casino now on my laptop] but its just from looking at lines it seems whenever arizona has been at home for the past 2 years everyone is like

Omg (Arizona's opponent) is only (ridiculous line), I'm all in!!!

I've only noticed it since Kurt Warner has taken over as QB

maybe the weather favors a big passing team which they've become since Warner took over? not sure

12-7 at home ATS since their new stadium opened in 06

8-3 since 07

probably just running good

though from looking at boxscores and game scores, pass heavy teams tend to do better there

only exception being detroit when they got raped last year and cost me thousands in wong teasers and i cried

On the road 3-4 hours across the country, lost starting QB in 1st quarter, J.P. Losman played that game. Not saying your wrong on the pick, but those 2 factors had something to do with how bad they were in that game.

Have we really regressed to the "VEGAS IS BEGGING YOU TO TAKE XXXXXXXX" method of thought here?? Really....

Could be a package deal, Alan Thicke might be pushing Tahiti Village and the Buffalo Bills this weekend imo

I think you need to look at handicapping the game yourself AND what the line is tricking you into doing.

With the Mia/Buff game I think obv handicapping we would all take Buffalo but looking at Vegas we would all take Miami. Miami is a team that can play with almost anyone but they are not that good, they lost to Baltimore come on. Definitely taking Buffalo here.

With Car/Ariz you see Arizona is horrible on the road and Carolina destroyed NO last week at home. I think this is another game where the two factors seemingly offset each other. Taking Carolina here, Warner is not that great, he just beat up on a Buffalo team at home who just lost their QB and was probably deflated and Dallas at home so has absolutely no secondary.

This is not actual handicapping though.

Edit: This line kinda reminds me of the movie Fracture though:
"Is that a legal argument? Oh come on?"

I would take Miami over Buffalo in this spot in a handicapping method as well. Miami's a decent team. You know who else is a decent team? Baltimore.


Yeah, those two games are the only reason he's ranked 4th in DVOA. He's 5th in yards per attempt, and 1st in completion percentage. Those gaudy numbers, I assure you, did not come from just those two games. It's not all him, he has a great receiving core, but the Cardinals offense is for real.

This is one of the dumbest things I have ever read.

should of thrown in the game when the jets were up by like 40 and stopped playing defense to let him pad his stats in the 2H to strengthen the argument

The line isn't tricking you into anything. Think about this. Who bets openers? Sharps. Who is the least likely to get "tricked" or "trapped" by a line? Sharps. Who are the books going to get raped by if they let their linesmakers put out incorrect openers in an attempt to "trap" the average bettor? Sharps. To put it simply, the linesmakers aren't trying to "trick" you into doing anything, if you see a line you think is a "trap" it's you tricking yourself. This entire line of thought is as square as it gets.

If a line opens -3.5 and moves to -5.5, it is most likely a "trap" line because unsophisticated bettors will see -5.5 as close to -6/-7 and play the dog.

Even though -3.5 to -5.5 is not a substantial move, and advantage players made the line move early, the general public will probably agree with the linesmakers that -3.5 was the fair line, and fall for +5.5. To say books do not take advantage of lines like this is not accurate.