Anyone else like Oakland +7? From what I've seen and expect people are all over New England. How much worse than Seattle is Oakland? With Seneca Wallace they have to be at least equal, in my opinion. Giants are better than Dallas I like the money line there. New Orleans ML also. Hate to put money on Dorsey and go against Philly but that's a lot of points so +15 -120. Det +17, Baltimore -2, SD -5. Teaser +8.5pts +100 Baltimore +7.5/Pit@Balt u42.5/GB@Jax o36.5

My OM method went 2-3. I think that whole process might be too subjective so I'm still searching for a use. Who is everyone on?

Although I am strictly a prop player, I still cap each game and come up w/my predicted scores....so take this advice as you may.

I do like Oakland in this spot but would wait for the line to go up to 7.5 as I perceive it will before I bet it. Pats 20 Raiders 16

Disagree with you on the Giant/Cowboy game. Giants likely will be without their top 2 offensive weapons. Jerry Jones will not let the boys lose this must-win game at home. If I were betting this game, I would wait for the line to go down to boys -2.5 as I think it will regardless of Jacobs status. Dallas 26 NYG 21.

Sorry to say bud, but Saints ML is a sucker/donk bet. Game is much more important for Bears since even if Saints win out, they still virtually have no shot of making playoffs. Saints offense outside the dome is like night and day; add in the weather conditions, I see no other option but laying the 2.5 here which is still widely available w/the Bears. Bears 24 Saints 19

No opinion for me on Eagles/Browns game as line seems spot on. Philly 24 Clowns 10

I suppose there is small value if you can get the lions at +17.5; but I still wouldn't touch it since colts are clicking right now, especially at home...remember what they did against those ravens a month or so back. Colts 30 Lions 14

Balt/Pitt game is a tough one. Neither offense will do anything so it will come down to turnovers. Since Pittsburgh is more turnover prone and were actually outplayed despite winning during their earlier matchup this year...I would lean slightly with the Ravens. But you can find a much better line than -2; by weeks end best bet would probably be Ravens ML -120. Ravens 16 Pittsburgh 14

With you on SD, grab the -5 while its still available. With Broncos falling apart, Chargers will seize this opportunity despite being horrible on the road. KC will be no pushover at home but SD at -5 is clearly right side...I envision this line close at SD-6.5. San Diego 27 Chiefs 17

Absolutely avoid betting teasers/parleys at all costs. Books have huge edge in all situations even though you may believe you have the right sides.

Good luck on your plays.

O RLY?

wong teasers and all other exotics are just square plays imo

I was unaware the owner of a team could dictate when his team wins a game.

I dont see how the Colts beating the Ravens in Week 6 means they are clicking right now?

Dayjob you've been doing a nice jog with the props so kudos for that. This statement is just flat out wrong though.

I don't know if NE will cover the 7. Second straight game on the opposite coast has not been a very good spot for most teams. I will tease the hell out of them though because records aside Oakland sucks worse than Seattle, even with Seneca Wallace at QB.

imo

For the Giants-Boys, I understand the injury issues but I think Marion Barber is just as likely to (not) play. Plax being out hurts, no doubt, as he can play the role of any type of receiver, but I think Dominick Hixon can replace him. Burress has been a little above average this year and yet the Giants' offense has been great because of the offensive line and running backs. Their offense revolves around those two units so the Jacobs injury is much more important. The main concern for the passing game is Manning's timing with any receivers getting more playing time.

Brandon Jacobs has been great this year, but so has the offensive line. And because of the o-line, Ward has also been very good. It will be interesting to see how much of a drop off there is but I don't expect a big one.

As for Jerry Jones 'not letting them win' and this being a must win for the Cowboys, you think the Giants don't want to win this game to keep ahead of Carolina? You think Mara and Tisch are going to shuffle into the locker room before game time and let the team know they'd like this win but if not it'll be alright? I'm not really worried about one team being more motivated than the other in this game.

Saints@Bears: Yes the Bears 'need' to win this game, but again I don't think the Saints are going to come in and lay down. And yes the Saints' offense is worse on the road but that is the case for most teams in the NFL. Relatively speaking they are still a top ten offense away from NO. I think the Saints are a better team than Chicago so I'll take the plus payout.

Cle@Phi and DET@Ind games: I have a policy of taking that many points in the NFL most of the time. Simple as that.

For the teaser, I don't have complete discipline. If I didn't let myself have a teaser every week I'd be betting too many games.

One good game against a terrible secondary and LB corps ill-suited against his running ability and Wallace and the Hawks are better than Oakland? Maybe by a very small amount but I personally will gladly take seven points versus an overrated Pats squad.

Edit: I also like TB ML @ Atlanta. That makes three +3 money lines I like this week.

My plays

CIN +6.5...and a little sprinkle on the ML
ATL -3
HOU +3
BAL -1
NE -7
DAL -3

Props are "exotics".

Whatever this means.

they destroyed a very good team at home by much more than 17pts so this is obviously relevant information.

what i meant is that their is no handicapping/skiill involved in playing wong teasers; therefore, indicating that those people who just bet wong teasers are mostly squares because they lack the handicapping skills in finding non-obvious +ev plays

exotics i meant parleys, future bets, etc

well, for one he is calling out his players(Barber) which typically leads to more inspired play the following game and (2) the boys are America's team and in a must win situation, don't you think the boys will get the majority of calls in their favor especially at home.

As a side note, I just gave my analysis/opinion on games that were requested for and all I get in return is constantly being scrutinized by every1 on this site in every aspect of my analysis. Due to this fact, effective immediately I am done posting my prop plays on this site. Happy Holidays.

Yeah, you don't really know what you mean, cause you don't really know what you're talking about.

Dayjob you should know by now other posters pointing out mistakes is part of the site. I for one appreciated your responses and didn't feel like what I said was out of line, unless your post wasn't directed at me. You are the only one who has put together an on-topic post, beyond talking about Seneca Wallace, in this whole thread.

Not of a fan of either side in the OAK-NE game tbh, I'll be staying away from that one. Ditto for Giants-Cowboys.

I'll be pounding the Bills this week but I'm waiting for it to go up to at least +7.5 when the books scramble to adjust risk factors. I don't think this is the true line, which I would argue would be around 4-5. Everyone laughs at JP Losman, but the Jets have been exposed and have allowed mediocre QBs to have amazing games. Superior run D is nice and all, but it's all to waste when your pass D makes the opponent look like Dan Marino. Bills are underrated and Jets overrated, easy enough for me.

I'll also be betting against the Dolphins, who have big names attached to them and the Wildcat and slaughter of NE in everyone's mind. Problem is, whenever they have to cover more than a FG they don't. The grind it out dink and dunk offense is the culprit. That and Mike Singletary has the underrated 49ers playing well.

I also already went in on San Diego -4 thinking that was clearly the right side and expecting -5.5 to -6 by the end of the week. Glad I did

Everyone laughs at JP Losman because he has put up a grand total of 3 points in the 6 quarters he has played this year. And the Jets defense is probably better than both of them. Not to mention they were both home games (Toronto is a home game). In the words of the ESPN football crew..."CMON MAN!!!" It's not that the Bills are underrated, they just suck.

GL with your play but I will be on the other side. This is a statement game for the Jets and they will pound the run. And the Bills just suck.

I ran a friend through the list of games this week and he capped all of them correctly.... except for:

- SD @ KC (actual line SD -5) where he had SD -7, I think that's a huge play this week. Chargers were overrated for the first half of the season but I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Rivers is a good QB and will murder the KC defense.

- TEN @ HOU (actual line TEN -3) where he had more like TEN -6. Less sure about this, Houston are a decent team but the Titans will prove too strong imo.

I also kind of like DET +17 just because that is an assload of points, but whether I can stomach betting against the Colts is something else.

Edit: I may end up on the Jets too but just thinking about betting on them again is making me feel ill.

I will be making a play this week

it will be a squarenni lamer play

I will ride the Bears no matter the spread
New Orleans looks nice and pretty on fast surfaces where the timing of their offense is impeccable. However, they will now be on one of the crappiest surfaces in all of the NFL. Just like the playoff game a few years back, the Saints will look like garbage. The Bears will roll and roll big.