Who ya got? Crappy week imo.
Only game I initially find remotely appealing is Pittsburgh -3; are these teams really supposed to be even or is the desperation factor for Dallas and/or the 10 days rest carrying some weight?

I like Pitt -3 also.

Jets -4 isn't too bad either.

One of my friends LOVES Patriots giving 5 points in Seattle. He wants to load up on New England. Thoughts?

That's weird I was just looking at the lines and was going to post something about the Patriots line.

The patriots have been playing pretty well despite the Pittsburgh games. The Seahawks continue to make me wonder why they get credit at all.

I'm going to be taking that line for sure.

I might just be a square and take NE there as well...
For real though, NE has been the side on half of the very few road favorites I've picked in the last 3 years, including SF this year.

I'm pretty new to both 2+2 and the sports betting community, but I wanted to start making some of my picks public so I could get some dialogue as to whether or not I am full of (poop).

So, one pick I really like this week is New England -5. I am a HUGE patriots fan and watch every game. That being said, I think they will absolutely demolish the Seahawks. The only factor I see complicating this is the weather. If it is rainy (which it has been lately here in the pacific NW) I don't see either Cassel or Moss having a huge game. If you need more evidence, look at last week's game to see how both handle playing in inclement weather.

(I also picked them to lose last week against Pittsburg FWIW)

I also like Cincinnati +13.5 against the Colts. If you look at the Colt's last 5 or 6 games, they have all been decided by 7 points or less. Plus, after watching the Colts game last week, they really do look like a team that is alright, but certainly not the team they have been in years past. I think the game will go down similar to last week's game against the browns.

A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can you compare two teams if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins of victory week by week. These are last week's ratings, so you can use them to see what this week's spreads would've been if week 13 never happened. Most spreads end up close to where they would've been; we are concerned with the spreads that are multiple points off of where they would've been without week 13.

Oak@SD
W/o wk 13: -13.5
Actual: -10

3.5 points is a big change. But I think it can be explained by Vegas' ratings of SD being inflated and each week, with each pitiful performance by the Bolts, they set them closer to how good the Chargers really are. Still, 10 points for this Chargers team is way too much and I think the 3.5 point drop is a glaring exclamation mark.

Cleve@Ten
W/o wk 13: -10
Actual: -14


Another huge change. Cleveland hung close with Indy as Vegas expected while Ten had a huge road blowout win. I think Dorsey being Cleveland's starter easily explains the spread, so nothing crazy here.


NyJ@SF
W/o wk 13: -2.25
Actual: -3.5


Only a 1.25 point change but it crossed three and and the change doesn't reflect how these two teams played last week. SF, as a West Coast team traveling east blah blah WON as a seven point dog while the Jets were handled at home as huge favorites. Yet the spread is a point MORE in the Jets favor while crossing three. Hmmm......


Mia@Buff
W/o wk 13: -6
Actual: -1

Miami has been undervalued like the Chargers overvalued all year so far, IMO. Miami squeaked by one of the worst teams in the league as heavy favorites last week while Buff lost at home as heavy faves. Granted, they did lose their starting QB, and his status for next week is uncertain, but considering how Edwards has played this year how much of a dropoff is there from him to Losman? Not enough for five points, IMO. Edwards may still start, anyway. Take Miami.

Dal@Pit

W/o wk 13: -.5
Actual: -3

Both teams crushed their opponents, although Pittsburgh's was much better. Dallas right now seems to be what everyone predicted them to be preseason before the injuries and drama. Even Vegas kept the faith, giving them top five team spreads while they were drowning earlier in the year. Yet this week suddenly Vegas sees Pitt as on Dallas' level. Take Pitt.

1 Giants 76.52
2 Dallas 75.71
3 Tennessee 74.99
4 Indianapolis 74.78
5 Pittsburgh 73.17
6 Baltimore 73.16
7 San Diego 72.95
8 Minnesota 72.88
9 Tampa Bay 72.39
10 Chicago 72.38
11 Jets 72.01
12 New Orleans 71.89
13 Philadelphia 71.86
14 Arizona 71.86
15 New England 71.67
16 Carolina 71.37
17 Green Bay 71.37
18 Atlanta 70.95
19 Buffalo 70.74
20 Washington 70.52
21 Houston 69.67
22 Jacksonville 69.17
23 Denver 68.01
24 Miami 67.93
25 Cleveland 67.78
26 San Francisco 66.74
27 Seattle 65.71
28 Cincinnati 63.16
29 Kansas City 62.46
30 Oakland 62.46
31 Detroit 60.99
32 Saint Louis 60.15

Green Bay also qualifies. GB loses by a field goal at home while Houston cruises on MNF yet a line that would've been -4.5 last week opens at -6.5 this week.

Interesting stuff Pickapeppa - I mentioned last week that the Jets would've been 6 or less vs. Denver if Week 12 never happened, but that was admittedly speculation by me...
What are your #'s based on though? I highly doubt the Bills would've been -6 in Toronto last week when they were only -1 @Miami when they were 5-1. Also not sure how Miami has been undervalued when they haven't covered in over a month.

Only reason I would consider Cinci is that the Colts have a ton of injuries. The problem is Cinci's offense is so awful, their running game is just dire. I think the line is probably about right.

NE -5 and MIA +1 are the only lines that interest me and I may not take either.

Maybe its the disgruntled Browns fan in me, but I seriously like TEN -13.5. This probably also has something to do with the fact that my most recent Dorsey memory was him throwing 20+ straight incompletions in a pre-season game this year vs. a defense that probably isn't even playing in the league right now and costing me lots of Scrilla. Unfortunately early indications point to this being the same logic being used by every square on the planet which means i'll probably end up being big on CLE +14 +120 or some crazy ****. This is why I dont handicap.

Very good guess. According to my numbers they would've been -5 if their game versus the Titans never happened.

The ratings are based directly off the spreads. The only thing reflected in these numbers are past spreads and a little tweaking if there is a huge upset or blowout; those are the only two instances where the ratings will change a lot (e.g. the Jets were 20th before their win versus the Titans and jumped all the way up to 12th after it).

This was meant to be something else when I started it but I now have these rankings on my hands, the 'Oddsmakers' Rankings' as I like to call them. It's nice to see how Vegas reacts after the games each week, and get a sense of what teams are receiving inflated/deflated lines.

About Miami@Buff, they were -1 @ Miami a long time ago in NFL season terms which is -5 at home. Buffalo has fallen way off since then but Miami has not received much respect from Vegas this year. The ratings don't lie!

You are right, however, about the Dolphins no longer being undervalued. My personal rankings had Miami a good deal higher than these for most of the season and I assumed that was still the case but Miami is slowly creeping down my rankings with each week. And their lack of covering spreads recently does not really suggest being undervalued, as you pointed out.

Pick,

Whjat are these numbers and where do they come from?
How are they derived?

I have an inherent trust for numbers that I can't tell what they actually mean.

bc

Love the over in DAL/PIT.

Past spreads are what is reflected in these numbers. Vegas sets the expected margin of victory each week with the spreads and I use them in the rankings. The best way to explain would probably be to show how I come up with the ratings.

We'll use Tampa@Carolina -3. The predicted spread is -2. Since Tampa last week performed almost exactly as expected their rating is not adjusted. Carolina, on the other hand, won by a field goal on the road as field goal underdogs so their rating is adjusted upwards one point according to the difference in the predicted vs. actual spreads. Then we average the two ratings, add half of the actual line to the favorite while subtracting half from the underdog, and finally subtract half of home field advantage from the home team and add half to the road team. In match ups like this one where the home team is favored by three we can skip the last two steps because adding half of three and subtracting half of three gets us zero.

I agree on the over in this game. Also find the KC vs Denver over interesting. Both these defenses blow!

Snow and heavy winds in the Pittsburgh forecast for Sunday. 40 points seems about right.

i'm just about done caring about snow and/or bad weather in o/u lines...wind, maybe.

but just because the forecast is a monsoon, i've learned the hard way that that **** doesn't matter..

PEPPA, maybe I'm confused with your reasoning but are you saying you like NYJ or SF? That line looks suspicious with the Jets receiving the most lopsided action for the week. Eerily reminds me of the NYJ@OAK game earlier in the season where they received similar lopsided action. They were 3.5 favorites in that one too

im going to go ahead and bet on the NO -1000 for this claim being backed up a legitimate analysis with a significant sample size, delineating between each of the various factors that weather encompasses, with the outside variables accounted for(semi-domes, passing/running teams/etc).

locks imo.

Edit: You're better off arguing that these factors are for the most part accounted for by the market/linesmakers, but to imply that the fair total lines for the same 2 teams playing in Toronto(13-28F, 20mph, snow/showers) as opposed to San Diego(52-66F, 5mph, clear) would be enough similar to the point "that **** doesn't matter" is ridiculous.

Has anyone done any digging through data to see if there's actually any correlation between public leans and the result ATS?

I am taking the Jets this week. My reasoning was that the Jets and 49'ers had completely opposite results last week (Jets terrible 49ers good), yet the line moved over three to make the Jets a bigger favorite. The line moving through a field goal was what really stood out to me.

This is the first month I've tried using the Oddsmakers' Ratings in this way, and they are just another tool for me. I go mainly off of my own and Football Outsiders' rankings; it just so happens that the picks I came up with using the Oddsmakers' Ratings match up with what my picks would've been this week anyway, which is nice.

And it can be disconcerting to be on the same side as 90% of other bettors, but if I like a side something like that won't generally put me off unless I see many cappers I respect on the other side.

I want to see if there's something to these. Knowing how and why the linesmakers set and move their spreads is obviously key and I think this is a good first step towards attaining that knowledge. So the OM picks this week are:

Oakland +10
New York -3.5
Miami +1
Pittsburgh -3
Green Bay -6

i like NE, cincy to cover, balt to win, steelers to win, and atlanta this week.


anyone want to bet on the games?

pm me if you're interested in betting any of the games.

ill check the lines and i'll consider taking cowboys