Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
NFL Week 13 NFL Week 13

11-29-2012 , 03:05 AM
Panthers -3 vs Chiefs seems like a steal to me.

First impressions, "-" = half of +. Haven't placed bets yet though.

nola u56 ++-
pats -9 +++
hawks +3.5 +
texans -6 +++
gp o46 ++
49ers -7 ++
49ers o40 ++
colts +4.5 + //// I'm at a loss on this one.
jags +5.5 ++
jets -4.5 +
jets o36.5 +-
panthers -3 +++
bengals -1 ++
eagles +10.5+
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 03:14 AM
So far I have

Texas -5.5 6u
Saints +3.5 2.5u
Dallas -10 2u
Indy +4.5 3u

Also jumped on runhots super 10 pt tease lock of the week for 1u
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gotadui
Chiefs +3 anyone, anyone..?

I think i like it, but idk yet
I like the Chiefs in that game. The Panthers beat the eagles last week, but the game was much closer than it looked. If the Eagles don't fumble the kickoff return they have a real shot to cover/tie.

The Panthers are awful. They barely beat an Eagle team with no QB, no RB, no offensive line, and multiple players out on D.

I'd go with the Chiefs.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KhalynYohrk
So far I have

Texas -5.5 6u
Saints +3.5 2.5u
Dallas -10 2u
Indy +4.5 3u

Also jumped on runhots super 10 pt tease lock of the week for 1u
I like the Texans, I really dislike the other 3 bets.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 08:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wil318466
I like the Chiefs in that game. The Panthers beat the eagles last week, but the game was much closer than it looked. If the Eagles don't fumble the kickoff return they have a real shot to cover/tie.

The Panthers are awful. They barely beat an Eagle team with no QB, no RB, no offensive line, and multiple players out on D.

I'd go with the Chiefs.
The panthers also had 2 free tds.. chiefs actually have a decent d, if they put hillis at qb they might have a shot at winning

Also will be in philly around noon
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 10:01 AM
What's the word on the Falcons corners? Are they both hurt?
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 10:14 AM
The panthers arent so bad. The chiefs are the worst team in the league. How can one bet on them?
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 10:30 AM
Panthers are pretty bad... bad enough to let the Chiefs look decent. If Bryce Brown shredded them Jamaal Charles certainly can. Seems like a game not to wager on, especially in KC.

@Khalyn - are your unit sizes 'typical size' and if so what's your typical range? Is a 6u wager an outlier?
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:04 AM
Thanks for asking, so far I've been changing u size depending on how much I feel like putting in action on a give day/week/weekend etc. I realize that for the purposes of posting the plays it doesnt make sense for me to be using moving unit sizes based on that reasoning.

So I was going to adjust the numbers from this week from 6/3/2/3 etc in half as those are more realistic to my actual unit size. I've raised my bets after some success of late.

So my typical range in relation to this week would be 1-3u although I have made some 4/5u plays that were my biggest bets I've made so far this year.(the texans this week would qualify as 3u according to my true unit size in relation to those after adjustment)

So a 6(3) unit wager on the texans is more in the outlier range than most.

Fwiw, I have managed to not run bad so far this ncaa and nfl season and am up but I'm very new to sportsbetting. Over the last two years I've slowly moved from small homer bets for fun to taking my bets seriously. Playing teasers and looking for edges like getting money in on the texans at 5.5 when I hear information from a capper about how he expects it to close at 7. Honestly most of my information comes from you guys.

Currently 1/3 through King Yao's book Weighing the Odds, and Stanford Wongs is sitting next to that one ready to go.

Last edited by KhalynYohrk; 11-29-2012 at 11:10 AM.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:13 AM
Thanks-- always interested in hearing/seeing folks feedback on sizing to consider ranges and if we're talking apples and oranges on 'base' size.

GL
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
What's the word on the Falcons corners? Are they both hurt?
I bounced around a little;

11/29/2012 T Sam Baker GROIN PROBABLE
11/29/2012 WR Kevin Cone GROIN PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 WR Harry Douglas ANKLE PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 DT Peria Jerry QUADRICEPS QUESTIONABLE Questionable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 S Charles Mitchell CALF PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 LB Stephen Nicholas KNEE PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 TE Michael Palmer BACK PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 CB Dunta Robinson ILLNESS PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 CB Asante Samuel SHOULDER QUESTIONABLE Questionable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans

11/29/2012 DT Vance Walker RIBS PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
11/29/2012 LB Sean Weatherspoon ANKLE PROBABLE Probable for Week 13 vs. New Orleans
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:20 AM
lol , saints team bus got egged today lol
this makes them a super lock now
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:28 AM
For tonight, just to be vested;

Teaser: Saints +10.5, over 48.5 .65-->.5

Not so sure if this is the best kind of match-up to tease however (with such high powered offenses and all).
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse Wow
Colts +4.5 -104

Adding:
NO +3.5 -104
Sea +3.5 -108
TB +7 -110
Adding:
Jacksonville +6 -110
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wil318466
I like the Chiefs in that game. The Panthers beat the eagles last week, but the game was much closer than it looked. If the Eagles don't fumble the kickoff return they have a real shot to cover/tie.

The Panthers are awful. They barely beat an Eagle team with no QB, no RB, no offensive line, and multiple players out on D.

I'd go with the Chiefs.
FOLKS the Chiefs also fall into my lose 2 straight at home and play another game at home theory. This is 9-2-1 last 5 years. CHIEFS wait for the line to go up. This opened at panthers -2.5 VEGAS was begging for action on the panthers here. You can get this number at 4 by gametime I am sure.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucas McCain
FOLKS the Chiefs also fall into my lose 2 straight at home and play another game at home theory. This is 9-2-1 last 5 years. CHIEFS wait for the line to go up. This opened at panthers -2.5 VEGAS was begging for action on the panthers here. You can get this number at 4 by gametime I am sure.
Curious how many of those 9 win teams had Brady Quinn at QB, lol.

Regardless Kansas +145 on the money line is probably the best play here realistically.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 01:52 PM
^^^ agree with this. Good call.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
Rams getting 7 at home vs a team they just tied weeks ago on the road? Yes - St. Louis +7
This makes it sounds silly


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyler Durden
But Redd, the 49ers have a different QB now. Though I agree with you. I am just saying it's not the same team.
This makes it sound not silly


Honestly I like the 49ers here. They are a different team and the Rams were just trying really hard for a win, they got that last week they could be satisfied for several weeks, if not the year.

They were also coming out of a bye...er they both were!!! WTF
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 03:03 PM
so kaep is a 7 point upgrade over smith? lol.

that being said, i think the rams overperformed and the niners underperformed during the tie game.

i'm staying away from this but if i had to pick one i'd take san fran.

i think i may have teased rams +13 tho, not sure.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 03:10 PM
just checked what action i have for tonight. lol lots of burning money bets...

saints +8 in a 14-team progressive teaser. never done one of those before.
game u50 in a 6-team pleaser. also never done one of those.
saints -2.5 in a 5-team pleaser.

lol i think i looked at these diff bets because of that 'scammed by 5d thread'

also have a colts/saints superbowl at +127500 so a saints win is pretty much required for any chance of that happening.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 03:23 PM
I do not think Kaep is a 7 point upgrade, actually in a way I do. I do not think he will average 1 more TD per game but with his threat of running and he proved he can throw, also he can throw an interception and bounce back. At the very least he is a slight upgrade today. I think he opens up the Offence a lot more than people know for the following reason:

Nobody is talking about how much the Offence is probably limited by Alex Smith and how that will handicap the entire offence. Harbaugh has to be an excellent judge of QB talent and also is probably calling plays that act as a security blanket to help Smith "manage" the game. I think with Kaep he will either not have to do that or will be able to expand immediately with his superior running ability.

So in Long, yes Kaep himself is probably a 7 point upgrade.

Also what house said with the Rams over performing and 49ers under performing.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
also have a colts/saints superbowl at +127500
Might as well be using your money as rolling paper haha.
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 04:06 PM
Probably was when he made that bet
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 04:52 PM
$11 pick em pool for an extra side bet sweat if anyone wants in, through paypal and picks due tonight 5pm PST/8pm EST. Ergo, TDA, dfb89, nflmojo etc on here can vouch for it PM me if anyone's down, GL
NFL Week 13 Quote
11-29-2012 , 06:12 PM
Matt Ryan Over 320 yards Passing 8u , expect him to go well over 350 probably nearer 400

Matt Ryan Over 38.5 Passing Receptions 10u @ Bovada is a cracking bet , he has had 52 passing attempts in each of his last 3 v NO and with not much of a running game he will target RW TG and JJ a lot
NFL Week 13 Quote

      
m