don't look now but ravens D has been porous of late esp vs the pass, anyone think the total is too low? those teams execute pretty well so a lot of the clock will be lopped off but they have so many playmakers i doubt 39 is the FL

also liking the over in GB/Det and i haven't even looked at the line yet

Miami has to be the pick at +7, that team is actually solid...seems like a 6-4 team disguised as a 3-7 team...if they can pressure Romo enough they can actually win the game outright i think.

johnny, i'm pretty surprised you like bills +9. it's not just bad luck or a "slump" that the bills have been blown out 3 times in a row, outscored 106-26 in those games. they have been wrecked by injuries and fitzpatrick has regressed steadily since his first few games this year. if you've watched them play lately, you know it's looking pretty bad

i cannot imagine betting on the bills at this point -- there's just very little to support the hope that they'll turn around and be the team they were earlier in the year. i'd either bet jets (who just blew them out in buffalo a couple weeks ago) or i'd pass on the game

Yeah, most of my football betting is not just picking games ATS, since I'm terrible at and I don't think it's very profitable for people who don't know heaps about it. I'm probably going to have a whopping ~6.5 units bet on games ATS this week.

Most of what I do involves teasers, totals (full game, halves, and quarters) and betting on teams in 1st half and individual quarters.

ETA: also team totals for all those

Extremely? Their only loss came in overtime to the Cowboys in week 2. Alex Smith is having a great year and is not turning the ball over (7th in QB rating). Flacco, in his last 7 games, has 6 TDs and 6 INTs.

BAL might not have won last week's game by 7 if A.J. Green had played. Their two wins before that one were both by only 3.

SF has the second-highest point differential in the league.

Stop Ray Rice, stop BAL. SF has a top 3 run defense.

There is concern about the cross-country trip on a short week preceding a holiday weekend, but given the brother v brother matchup and the overall makeup of both teams, I'm inclined to think it's going to be a very close game no matter who wins.

Demolish? GB gives up a lot of points, and is predicated on forcing turnovers. Outside of that aberration against CHI, Stafford does not turn the ball over. And of course, nobody can guard Megatron.

Also, Kevin Smith is obv not going to repeat last week's performance, but he is clearly a better running back than the other scrubs left in that lineup.

Both teams score a lot of points, and Detroit has a good enough defense to keep them in it. Remember, the Chargers only lost to GB because of two consecutive pick-sixes. Detroit can win this game, and it really doesn't seem likely that GB can blow them out.

don't underestimate how good SF is, they might have the best coach in the NFL

No one likes Carolina -3.5 @ Indy?

Carolina has a top offense vs a terrible Indy team and a team that probably just flat doesn't care anymore? I know this is a pretty brief reason but I assume this game is pretty self explanatory. I just flat dont think Indy will be able to keep pace with Carolina's scoring. Carolinas average of about 22/game while Indy's only scoring like 13/game.

jets -9? doubt the jets offense can even score 9 points...i know the bills are playing awful, and ppl will say "jets are going to have a bounce back game" but isnt that what everyone said last week?

I agree I wouldn't touch the jets Sanchez is horrid

imo it's a no-play, but i still would say i like the jets side more than the bills. jets just beat them 27-11 a few weeks ago in buffalo, now they've got them at home. bills have now been crushed 3 games in a row, d is wrecked and injured with bad depth... i don't see them coming out and being a better team than they were vs the jets before, if anything they've gotten worse and now it's an away game

I observe what my friends talk about in a Private chat, theyre mostly winners in SB.

These are a few picks they were discussing a lot, some a lot of love, others no interest at all. So I'm jw what you guys think.. I've never openly discussed SB with people before as it's never been more than a fun thing to do, placing random wagers. I'd like to read other thoughts.

Green Bay -6
Dallas -7
Baltimore -3
Didn't like jets/bills (as of right now)
Bengals -7.5
Jacksonville +3.5
Carolina -3.5
Tennessee -3

Are any of these controversial picks?

as a follower of the jags i don't like jacksonville +3.5 at all, i insta bet the other side when the line came out. yeah so leinart is starting but he's still a better QB than gabbert -- which means basically every single area of their team is better than jax. jags just had the browns freaking run on them, texans run game and D should be all they need to cover imo. jags offense is legitimately awful and i could go into great detail why but not really necessary. they are the only team in the league where i would be taken aback if i saw they scored over 20 pts in a game

balt is quite controversial, seems like most on the forums are favoring 49ers but there's ppl on both sides. and i like GB personally but lots of people on either side of that as well

plu ufo, those first three are opposite from what I like. So you could make the argument that it would be the square fading the sharps.

And I really don't get it when people thing of a pick as a 'lock' or a pick 'controversial'. Aren't NFL spread supposed to be pretty efficient?

I get when people think they have found good value in a game. I mean, you could almost always make some argument for any game, either side, ATS. I've never thought a pick was stupid, though. I've disagreed with a pick (do all the time) but just don't see how any pick ATS could be stupid or controversial.

whos worse sanchez or fitzy, god why the bills sign a 6 year deal to a backup qb

Im a big bills fan, Fitz is good, its just Injuries are KILLING us like in past years. All our starting LB's are hurt, Starting Safety is out. Stevie was out last week and starting center is out for rest of the year. Bills are BAD off right now.

Think carolina is a steal

i like carolina -3.5 also, one of the first games i bet when the lines came out. even vs a weak defense i don't see the colts putting up the points needed to keep up. and even though neither is in playoff contention i'd guess that cam newton and co feel more motivated to play hard for a win than the colts do at this point

With no arm

Bought the .5 pioint on SF. +3.5 -120. I think that this will be a great game from a fan's perspective and that people will draw too wide a conclusion on either side of the result. Happy Thanksgiving to all! Comcast gets more of my $ for the NFL network ftw.

I am completly lost on the Dallas Miami game. Both are on a three game win streak, both have played two of the same teams in last three games. I. Dont know if Miami's defence is getting better or was the offence of the last three teams they played that bad?

I'll show them the thread. They may register/post their thoughts. They both seem v intelligent when they discuss picks.

MVP, they both are betting big on Carolina fwiw. They also think the line will move a few more times and probably end closer to -4.5.


Thanks for the responses, all. I'm trying to ease my way into sports betting slowly, appreciate the tips and forgiving responses when I say something stupid in advance. Good luck this week.

My model puts Carolina at about -2.5.

That might mean that anything -3.5 and beyond could possibly be a trap.

On the other hand, Indy just seems to get smashed, and betting against them just seems like ez money.

I could go around and around, thus leaving me at this game being a no bet.

Greenbay -7 I think this Game will come down to interceptions and Stafford has been throwing a few lately.
Miami + 7 Really clueless on this game just going against the popular choice.
Baltimore = ) - 3.5 I got Baltimore winning 24-13

jets moneyline seems really good think the bills lose this game 9 out of 10 jets have way better talent when the bills have all there players healthy

Due to an epic misclick, 5.00 of my 5.40 on FSB is on Carolina @ +3.5. over Indy.
I personally wasn't THAT confident LOL.
ZOMG, is there hope 4 me???

the dolphin defense was good even when they were 0-7...it was the offense with Henne that was the problem...Matt Moore can actually think at the speed of the game, even if he's not as talented, he's just a better all around QB...they've greatly improved their 3rd down efficiency the last 3 ball games