There was no thread for this, i know there are a ton of really smart people that think on a pretty high level when it comes to there picks and why. So let's open it up. Hopefully some of my NBA buddies are jumping into the season. I'm a little hesitant to bet first week, but i was good all preseason so let's see what people like.

Right now i like vikings at -4, and the giants at -6.5

giants are a huge trap

division rival with 4th defense in league last yr.
no replacement for plax...remember the end of last year?
this is a 13-10 game, either way

vikes will crush defensively and peterson will run all day

Why do you like the Vikings?

They're on the road, Favre has been with the team for a short time, the offense is likely to sputter. The Browns still have a decent QB and an offense that can put up points. This doesn't automatically make me like the Browns+4, but expecting the Vikings to clear 4 points seems steep to me.

Im lazy but someone should post the lines for the week...

I have :

Cowboys-6
Panters +1
Seahawks -8
49ers +6.5

Debating on :

Bengals -4.5
Browns +4

Leaning Dolphins +4.5, Panthers +2.5, Jags +7 and 49ers +6

I have these also. I have Cleveland +4 too.

Thinking of putting a very significant amount on min @ -4. Can you guys explain what all the love for cleveland is? New coach, new qb, same ****ty team, against a rock solid d and adrian peterson. Whats not to love about -4?

I really liked Minnesota also when the line first came out. Put some loot on that game Min -3.5

I also like the Cowboys -6

Thats what I'm saying I'm a huge fan of Hou -4, Min -4, and Dal -6. Very new to sports betting and I guess coming out and taking a shot isnt the smartest approach, but I watch a lot of football and minny @ -4 looks like printing money.

I like Minny here too thinking if this were the 8th game instead of the 1st they'd be at least 10 pt favorites. Disclaimer: not due to Favre who is certain to throw an interception to ruin the season, but I like the Vikings to make the NFC Championship game.

I know last season has little relevance but the Vikings have improved on D, have the running game, and even with a cracked rib Favre should improve their passing game.

Last year:

Minn 5th in rushing O vs Clev 28th in rushing D
Minn 6th in total D vs Cleve 30th which is interesting because Clev was 14th in passing D. How do you say "can't stop the run"
Minn O 12th in tot scoring offense vs Cleve O 30th

Brady Quinn is not a vertical passer, preferring dumpoffs.
Mangini is NOT Belicheck-lite, the qb switch-a-roo is him trying to emulate Belicheck's histrionics instead of Belicheck's work ethic.
This year's new Clev Defensive coordinator has a history of fail.

It's the NFL so nothing's a lock, my guess however, is this game is over mid third quarter, something like 17-3. If Favre has to throw it more than 25 times I'd be shocked.

I usally am not a fan of picking a ton of favorites, but that isn't the case this week.
NO -13 vs Det
NYG Wash Under 37.5
Packers -3.5 vs Chic
NE -10.5 vs Buff

Patriots -11 1/2 vs Bills. (disclaimer: I like the Patriots to go to the SB)

This is another early season slam dunk, imo.

The Bills are in a state of confusion. Yea, they have TO, but will Edwards be able to get the ball to him? Demtrius Bell is, as of 2 weeks ago, the starting OLT, protecting Edward's blind side. He's never played a down of NFL football, his HS didn't have football so he didn't play his first football game until his sophomore year at some podunk school in Louisiana (Northwestern State). His biological father is former NBA great Karl Malone, so he has pedigree without experience. Bell has to be the happiest guy in the country over the Seymour trade, problem is Jarvis Green is one mean mofo. There are also two other OL for the Bills who have never played an NFL down.

The Bills first team offense played a total of 15 series of their no-huddle together in the preseason. Resulting in 1 FG, 5 turnovers and 9 punts. They were outscored by opposing defenses 7-3 due to an interception runback. They crossed midfield a total of 3 times.

Brady is back and will probably throw at least 30 td's this year (probably 3 in this game), the Patriot pass defense is suspect at best but the new 4-3 should add pressure to opposing qb's, RB M. Lynch of the Bills is suspended, TO has a sore toe the poor baby.

I see this game going: no-huddle 3 and out, Patriots score, rinse repeat.

Final: 35-3 (maybe 10)

Gotta give August credit here for posting legit stats regarding the Min v Cle matchup.

That said, I've been betting NFL going into my third year now, and here's the thing freaking me out. The bookies know more than I do. It is their job. When I see the money leaning heavily in a single direction, and the bookies aren't moving the line, I start to assume the bookie knows something I don't. Right now the money on the spread is an obscene 96% on MIN. And the line is barely budging. In fact, over at BetUS, I can get CLE +4.5 as I type this.

My personal thoughts are that games that rely on rushing tend to be tight, lower scoring affairs. Favre isn't going to throw for 6 TDs the first week of the season. MIN is on the road, in a stadium with grass, the speed factor for Peterson is mitigated somewhat so he won't be rushing for 3 TDs of his own, either.

I might pass on the game entirely, but something tells me the confidence in MIN is a little unfounded.

And I couldn't agree more with August's analysis of the Pats/Bills matchup.

I also have NE in the SB and I'm a Bills fan (yah they're gonna suck)...maybe that cancels out...

Can't really argue with anything yur saying. Edwards is actually competent usually vs. 4-3's but has always been a trainwreck vs. 3-4's. Not sure if that's a coincidence or not.

But I've had the same feeling in other games in this series @NE where the Pats just kinda sleepwalked. Since the two 31-0 split games in '03 the Bills have played them tougher @NE than in the home rematch. Don't think their defense is as bad as you think either. Meh

The Packers/Bears game should be very telling. Has the GB defense improved to complement a great O, will Cutler/Hester compensate for a D that's on the back nine?

GB gets the automatic 3 for being at home, Aaron Rodgers is the real deal so I'm with you vs CHI.

Have you seen WASH @ 7.5 wins for the season? Have you seen the cupcake non-conf games they have? Looks like easy money on the over.

The artificial to grass/home team credit definitely factors into my play here ESnow, but I just can't see the Browns answering Vikes 9:00 minute drives enough times to come out on top. The money on the Vikes without line movement is confusing because I see this game as a top tier team vs an also ran.

The Vikes and Childress (to save his job) have to go balls to the wall this year prior to a possible non-capped season where they won't/CAN'T compete for free agents vs the Redskins and Cowboys of the league.

i agree with esnow on the minn game. when the money is all on one side and the line doesnt move then you fade the public. the bookies do know more than us, for a while i thought maybe they didn't, but i learned very quickly that they certainly do. remember when clev beat the giants, this seems like another instance of that game, well see on sunday i guess.

from what i seen it opened on bodog at Min -3.5 and is now at Min -4.5

I'm on...

SF ML
HOU -5
SD -9
MIN -4
DAL -5
ATL -4

I'm going to start documenting my plays

YTD Record: 0-0

Houston -4.5 (2 Units)
Cinci -4 (1 Unit)

I'm a little hesitant to bet this week as I never put any time into watching a good amount of preseason. But i'm going to put a few u's spread out on the vikings at -4 , pats at -10.5 , and I think with the bears vs packers game it's going to be a close game and -4 seems to be close as it should come down to a field goal.

And also hello to vincepion, good to see u ready to kick some more ace this season and everyone else here talking about the picks.

GL everyone this sunday and keep the posts coming.

Football(pro and college) YTD: 0-0

Balt -13 1.05u to win 1u
NE -10.5 1.05u to win 1u
SD -9.5 1.05u to win 1u

Offical picks

DAL -5.5
CIN -4.5
CAR +2.5
HOU -4.5
SEA -7.5

YTD 0-0