I honestly think it is going to be split right down the middle. No way to know for sure until the picks lock which is game time. I am probably leaning towards Denver. I have a real weird feeling about the Hou-NE game. Not sure why but I think it is going to be a dogfight.


TDA

Both spreads are 9.5. Your best equity is picking the team that is least likely to be chosen most by the remaining players. If you want to go with your feelings, so be it, but if you want to make the most EV pick this is the way to go. Make an educated guess or go the opposite of who your friend picks.

I'd pick New England because if Denver loses on Saturday, you at least have the option to hedge by betting Houston on the ML because everyone will be taking these teams and you will ensure a nice win by going this route. I know to said you don't have this as a option, but this is the most EV route.

If you can't hedge, pick who you think will be picked least for best EV

There's just not a chance the Ravens win a road game at Denver, all things aside. So I'd be on Denver.

Someone explain the hedge thing to me. Lets say my pool has 34 peeps left for $13k. 17 are on Denver and 17 (including me) are on NE. Denver plays Saturday and loses.

if Denver loses on Saturday - what do I hedge and how much? Assuming I have the option of finding a way to hedge of course, but let's say I do.


TDA

Assuming everyone is on these teams, with Baltimore win, you lockup 382. You win this amount if Houston wins. 34-way chop.

After Denver win, you bet Houston at +375 for smallish amount. Small because the pool still goes on if New England wins. Bet like 10 or something. If this was Championship week, I'd bet more because only 1 week were to remain if the favorite were to win

In all likelihood both teams win of course. The thing to consider is the next 2 weeks. if everyone just takes takes the biggest favorite, you have to pick the other team or the underdog. That's the most EV

ie if the Super Bowl is a 7-point spread and 34 people remain, if everyone takes the favorite and you take the underdog, you'd be getting 33-1 on your money when the odds would only be 3/1. In this scenario, you'd be making the +EV decision as long as less than 10 people total were to exercise this line of thinking

I wouldn't use this strat this week because there are 2 huge favorites but I'd consider it strongly for next week

Thanks Jayhawk. Makes much better sense. I wasn't thinking about the ML .....

Ben Mclemore is a beast btw. My Dukies just lost Ryan Kelly for 2-4 weeks...ugh.

TDA

I've discussed my survivor pool here before, but here is the recap:

- Three of us made it to the playoffs, where your picks reset

- You can use only team once in the playoffs

- Last week, I picked BAL and the two others picked GB

- The way the pool works, your picks don't have to be in til Sunday at 1pm. If someone had picked one of today's games, it would have showed. So no one picked Denver basically.

- I was planning on taking NE, and still am. I am guessing the other two are as well. Can anyone talk me into taking ATL? If NE wins, next week I will have to pick the favorite in the NFC champ game (i assume SF). If they win, I will have no teams left in the Super Bowl.

- If I take ATL and they win, I could take NE in the AFC champ where they will prob be at least 7 point favorites. I would also then have SF in the superbowl if they beat ATL. Of course, the downside is ATL is only about 66% to win tomorrow, where NE is about 80-85%.

Anyone think I should take ATL?

Sorry for the bump but i see a bunch of survivor pool threads. Do we have just a general one to talk picks like this one from years past?

Yes. Discuss Survivor picks/strategy here.

Indy big sheep pick this week.

Call me a sheep!

I like PIT or Indy

All of my "go with best pick this week don't think about the future at all" friends are on NE mostly

Like Ind, also Pit

i am taking N.O. in my pool where you can pick the same team more than once

i am taking INDY in my pool where you can only pick a team once because i think that Mr. Luck is going to have a sophomore slump & i am saving N.O. for another week in this pool

N.O. is going to be good this year & ATL on the road after an 0-4 preseason does not impress me

INDY against OAK & Terrelle Pryor on the road, in a dome, as safe as it gets IMO

You are picking a 3 point favorite in a pool where you can pick teams more than once? Don't understand the logic on that one.

i think N.O. is going to win at home this weekend by over a TD

i also think that they are going to be at least 11-5 which means in a survivor pool they will be a pick potentially multiple times

i changed the picks to INDY for both

thanks mavsfan4ever

although i like N.O. to win, INDY is more of a lock because it might as well be Richard Pryor starting at QB for the Raiders

anyone have the link to the site similar to http://www.survivorgrid.com/
cant seem to find it and it was super helpful last year

Was it this or this from teamrankings.com?

one of my pools u can reuse teams, am wondering is there any point in taking something other then the Patriots in that one? Obv expecting everyone and their mother to be on Patriots, oh also have 2 entries in this one so thinking Patriots and Indy or Indy and Pit if I wanna seperate from Patriots herd although can't really think of any point not to take them in a reusable team pool?

i think most people are going to be on INDY or PATS

it is pretty tough to find any games that are better

Have 3 picks in one large entry pool. First two going with Indy/Pats. Third i wanna go with a risky team that ill never use again and as of now think im decided on TB. any other 3rd option, high risk suggestions that would be better options?

Kansas City over Jacksonville?
St. Louis over Arizona?

Not too confident in either one but potential options.

Im in the same boat. First pick is definitely Indy and i have been going back and forth with my 2nd...want to go a little risky.

Freeman is a trainwreck and the Jets can still play solid defense plus it's a home game.

For me, its between the Rams whose front 7 should control a weak Cardinals oline at home or the Redskins at home vs a poor Eagles defense. im not sold on that gimmick offense the first game of the year.

Any value on taking PIT over INDY just simply for separation value in a pool with 150 ish roughly and another with 700 something players?

On top of Indy being a great mismatch, looking towards the future idk when another good wk to use them would be but downside is I expect the majority of the herd to be on them. There's couple other wks to use PIT but not that many at all, mostly for the separation value.