I'm not 100% sold on any team whose two victories were against the Jets/Giants.

They looked good against SEA, but don't think I'd call them even semi-competitive vs. SF.

Why are you handicapping games when that work has already been done for you?

Not sure what you are talking about since this thread is a discussion thread and I posted a thought for discussion.

Think Buffalo is a good pick if not picking Dal or NE. I'm saving those two for later and going against the masses in a 1 pick league. We'll see how it turns out. No AJ Green, no problem for Bills D.

Those that pick TB good luck. History has shown Jameis is just as likely to have 4 picks as 2 TD's in any game he plays in.

He's saying there are Vegas odds so instead of you subjectively trying to think team x will win because of y reason, just use the lines. If you think you are better than the lines, then bet the games, survivor isn't really your most +ev way to use your superior knowledge.

I'll be honest, in some situations I'll input a minute amount of my own subjectivity into my picks, mainly because it makes me feel good and that I'm doing something and not just being a robot, but in no way do I think I know more than Vegas lines and I'd like to think the very minute amount I input this subjectivity has no material difference.

If I was better at math, I'd consider completely auto-piloting survivor.

There is also the element of trying to guess who your opponents will make that makes it fun.

Just going to keep taking the free wins while they're available. I just can't rationalize forgoing a 22 point favorite and picking a td favorite in the hopes of a colossal upset.

still have all 4 entries left

3 Cowboys
1 Patriots

Yeah. Miami is actively tanking. Free wins are free wins. Worry about the weeks with double picks or Miami second round of diviosnal opponents when they come up

hmmm, I wonder why. Has anyone in here watched the NFL before? It seems pretty easy to determine who will win each week, and Vegas is wrong a lot of the time. They aren't trying to predict the game with the line, they are trying to get action on both sides and they know the betting public are a bunch of dumb dumbs. Otherwise Seattle would not be a 5 point favorite tomorrow vs the Saints. Point spreads IMO are completely worthless.

I myself prefer to look at the spread - ML calculator and then looking to see who the biggest differentials are, then take into account who the public is taking and then make my picks from there, but if you go blindly based on point spreads it's going to be a bad time.

To be fair he changed is mind and took 0 Bears

Eddyyyyyyy

moneyline spreads are a thing too, though

playing survivor seems like a waste of your genius.

Why? I win one almost every year.

you'd definitely make way more if you started week 1 with your survivor roll, call it $100, and bet the easy win(s) and then took your new balance week 2, and repeat.

I'm the Mike Tyson of survivor. If I don't win it by week 3 I have no chance. That's why my plays are the way they are. I'm not built for the long haul in a Survivor season.

I'm ALLIN on Dallas in entries that I didn't pick them in 1

Taking 0 New England. Looking at 6... I don't have any Baltimore left and I'd rather take Green Bay & Kansas City in later weeks. New England will be the highest favorite that week. I'll probably slam them there.

Taking San Francisco & Tampa Bay with the rest. Tiny sprinkle on Buffalo

Green Bay & Minnesota will be much higher picked than the above teams. I'd rather give up a couple points and hope for the upset to knock out a few extra people. Plus Green Bay & Minnesota have much more playability later on than the other 3

Same. Leaning towards only taking one team for my non-Dallas picks since it's not many entries. Thinking Tampa but will decide that part tomorrow.

Double picks in 5 & 10. Locked today


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yolo. i don't even like the tampa pick so much anymore, but figure minny/gb will be overpicked relative to public pick rates. probably not most +ev pick, but still big numbers left.

put 2/3rds of non-dallas picks on tampa, 1/3 on minny. pool dependent.

56% DAL
22% NE
22% MIN

cowboys really gonna make me sweat this one huh...lol

.03 buy-in at Nitrogen. 87 left to start the week. Picks were:

52 Dallas
13 Minnesota
11 New England
4 Green Bay
3 San Francisco
2 Tampa Bay

2 - didn't pick - these are unique users too, so wonder if there is some sort of glitch.

I looked at @nitrogensports twitter last week. Someone was complaining they couldn't pick one of the later games. I think because of week 1 open until last Monday night game, people might not read rules and assume it's the same for following weeks when really they close at 1pm Sunday.

Just over here sweating out GB. Went all in on them this week.

Unbelievable. Man I'm a fish.

Pivoted off of TB when I saw the ML drop to -220 from -280. Felt weird. On to Week 5!