NFL Survivor Picks - Page 208 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

i would think a lot of picks in week 2 are on NE. double digit road favorites have like a 75% win straight up % since like 2000.

i think the ravens are a solid pick though.

steelers might be a outlier pick. seattle didn't look great and traveling cross country for a 1pm start

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09-09-2019 , 01:17 PM

#5178

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bukafax

I’m entering a 250ish man pool. Unlimited entires.

What’s the optimal amount of entries? 3?

144.

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09-09-2019 , 01:37 PM

#5179

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 50,077

LOL

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09-09-2019 , 05:15 PM

#5180

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

144.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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09-09-2019 , 05:16 PM

#5181

The Bukafax

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

The Dolphins-Ravens game is the best thing that could have happened week 1. So many people will play the pick whoever plays the Dolphins strategy and bust out whenever they finally win. People will be high on the ravens as well which I think they’ll blow games people will trust them on.

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09-09-2019 , 06:45 PM

#5182

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

144.

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09-09-2019 , 10:32 PM

#5183

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 50,077

someone just came in the 1 btc pool with a last minute entry on the Broncos.

the other entries were 12 for 12. picking a 3 pt favorite at this stage seems terrible ev decision.

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09-10-2019 , 08:40 AM

#5184

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bukafax

The Dolphins just have the feel of a wretched team though. There have been garden variety bad teams before, and teams that were totally talentless that got unlucky (0-16 Browns)... But I think the fact that there have been two 0-16 teams in the last 12 seasons, and the fact that this Dolphins team is one of the only ones we've seen actively tanking for draft picks.

I think they might actually be one of the worst teams in NFL history, and even if they win a game or two, the likelihood that it's one of their home games against BUF or NYJ seems to be pretty high.

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09-10-2019 , 10:18 AM

#5185

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 50,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

I've thought about hiring a virtual assistant to tabulate picks from Nitro. Decided to simplify this year and I'm only in the 0.1 BTC pool, so maybe not worth the effort.

i did this for all remaining entries in MVP pool and up. cost $7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Anyone checking what the 144-entry whale picked?

126 entries remaining.

18 on each of Baltimore, Dallas, Chargers, Pats, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks.

The 18 wrong must've been on Cleveland.

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09-10-2019 , 10:24 AM

#5186

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 50,077

Because I'm a friend of the thread, for the 0.1 pool, here are what the remaining people have used.

Could've been a lot of blood with Philadelphia, Seattle, LAC, NO...unfortunately they all survived

Dallas 43
Philadelphia 42
Seattle 42
Chargers 23
NO 23
Baltimore 22
NE 19
KC 1
Vikings 1
Oakland 1

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09-10-2019 , 10:40 AM

#5187

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,264

Way less week 1 carnage than the past few seasons.

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09-10-2019 , 11:39 AM

#5188

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

So is NE going to be the most used road team in history this week?

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09-10-2019 , 11:43 AM

#5189

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thickslicing

So is NE going to be the most used road team in history this week?

I hope a lot of the people in my pool are stupid enough to waste the pick in week 2.

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09-10-2019 , 12:11 PM

#5190

g-p

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 6,705

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

thanks, its all of us vs Evil 189

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09-10-2019 , 12:19 PM

#5191

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Okay I'll contribute too.

.03 BTC Buy in at Nitrogen. Prize Pool is The 3.36 BTC

99 of 112 entries remaining. There is 48 users that have only a single entry left. 7 have two entries, 3 have three entries, 2 have four entries, 2 have six entries, and 1 has eight entries.

Week one picks breakdown:

30 Seahawks
28 Eagles
15 Cowboys
11 Saints
8 Ravens
2 Chiefs
2 Chargers
2 Patriots
1 Raiders

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09-10-2019 , 01:27 PM

#5192

Crazy Joe Davola

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,165

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

Based on one game eh

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09-10-2019 , 03:03 PM

#5193

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Survivor Grid
@survivorgrid
·
56m
On average just 11.4% of entries were eliminated in Week 1 (only 9.8% in pools where ties advance).

That is the lowest Week 1 elimination rate we've seen since 2012, when it was 10.5%.

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09-10-2019 , 03:04 PM

#5194

Love Sosa

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,308

can someone give a noob who doesn't follow nfl some advice.

All four of my entries got through week 1 (seahawks, eagles, chargers, saints). There's 80 total entries left in my pool.

My first thought is to either do all 4 on the patriots, or 3 on the patriots and 1 on the ravens. I realize that this burns a valuable team for three of my entries, but -18 seems like such a great opportunity to get my entries through while another 10-15% of the entries get cut. Essentially a 90% chance get 4 entries on to week 3, which should set me up for a decent chance to make a deep run.

thoughts?

Last edited by Love Sosa; 09-10-2019 at 03:14 PM.

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09-10-2019 , 03:32 PM

#5195

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 50,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheetsworld

I think it was 2012 week 2 where Cards beat the Pats and knocked out like 50% of entries which more than made up for it.

yup 47% of people on yahoo picked pats that game: https://theprovince.com/sports/footb...fficial-week-2

Last edited by housenuts; 09-10-2019 at 03:42 PM.

Quote

09-10-2019 , 03:44 PM

#5196

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,652

Quote:

Originally Posted by Love Sosa

if you're gonna go all in on 1 team why not go 4 on ravens then?

they have a bunch of things going in their favor

Cards have to travel cross country and play at 1pm est. they also played a full OT last week.

Baltimore is home, Arizona isn't a division rival and their Vegas money line is ranging in the -800 to -900 range.

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09-10-2019 , 04:22 PM

#5197

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,264

Ravens have much less future value than the Pats.

Tom Brady is 7-9 in Miami.

Quote

09-10-2019 , 05:16 PM

#5198

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

I hope a lot of the people in my pool are stupid enough to waste the pick in week 2.

I’ve thought of saving NE like I’ve done in the past, however we have a 42 year old QB at the helm and I think risk of injury is a factor where maybe it makes more sense to use them while we know what their value is as opposed to waiting.

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09-10-2019 , 05:55 PM

#5199

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

From early returns, I'm not sure many more people will be on New England than on Baltimore. Pick % in the low 30s is high, but you're not gonna get a better spot for them this year in terms of win %.

I think I'll end up with some NE at that rate. Lots of average joes don't like using them early. If half the field were taking them I'd feel differently.

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09-10-2019 , 09:39 PM

#5200

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

I was planning on taking Carolina, but if Baltimore is only going to be 25ish% picked, the play has to be slam Baltimore this week. They are a very attractive Week 6 pick - so is New England

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