Did you bet Houston ML or Houston with the points? Good spot to do that especially since you're both revived after BOTH lose

No, I don't have any sports betting accounts.

Apart from some exceptions, I have avoided the largest favorite and most popular pick of the week for the majority of the season...especially if they have some past history that shows it should be way closer then the spread. This has what's got me to the final 9 of a 2075 person reusable team pool where separation is even more important...it's not as easy as pick SEA and move on this week.

Look at each entries picks to see what way they've leaned up until this point in the season. Make sure to look at how they broke down picks when they had multiple entries remaining. This is important because you, for example, picked NYJ in Week 2. You only did that because you already had 4 entries through and were getting good odds knowing how many people were going to be taking the Colts.

If you're not going to take Seattle, I'd take Carolina. If they win, you can do a small ML parlay on Seattle & New England. If they both win, you win the bet. If either loses, you'll gain some (if NE loses) to a lot (if Seattle loses) of equity

We were 1 person away from reaching a partial chop and playing out for the rest and it was made clear that if anyone picked tonight's game all deals would be off (at least for this week). Someone picked Jax, and it really makes me realize how dumb everyone left in this pool is. F*ck chopping, I'll take my 1 in 9 chance at 20k+ when upwards of 80% of the pool just picks the biggest spread favorite every week anyways.

Are they taking the biggest spread favorite or are they taking a -2.5 Thursday night game?

If they were taking the biggest spread favorites, they wouldn't still be in. Most people are doing exactly what you've been doing, which is riding New England.

Weeks 5, 7, and 9 the Pats were a bad pick (based on how the popularity played out). Weeks 6, 8, and 10 they were a good pick.

Assuming everyone is on SEA, CAR or NE, and the one guy is already through on JAX. SEA will be +EV if 5 or less people are on it. I think that will happen. This group is either avoiding the big favorite on purpose, or they aren't looking at spreads and riding the Pats, which they are likely to do again as the second biggest favorite.

The guy who took Jax has stayed away from the big favorites, but I'm still a bit stunned by him picking Jax. He is the one who started the chop thread, and by picking last night's game essentially killed any chop opportunity for this week. If he hadn't picked Jax then the survivors could have negotiated and finalized a chop deal before Sunday. in fact the one missing vote weighed in as a yea, but after the TNF game was underway.
And wtf would you pick Jax this week in a pool where you can pick any game. There are so many better picks, plus ANY other pick lets the chop discussion continue.. Just bizarre.
I guess what do I know, I busted out of two pools picking 10+ favs last week...
Well profbets good luck.

And it was literally 1 play away from TEN winning, had they not fumbled in late 4th Q to give JAX the ball on the 10, I think they easily win. Even so, they took a drive down really deep and almost still pulled off a win hah. I looked at his previous picks and 8 of the 11 weeks the picks all have had similar results, pulling a win out of their ass when they shouldn't have hah his luck will end soon enough but thx for the good luck.

And I agree, his logic makes 0 sense but it is what it is, and onto this week.

Ended up going SEA cuz it was so easy to hedge some with SF getting +750. 5 of 9 ended up on SEA, surprised only 2 r likely on NE...I still don't get how this is EV tho?

Next week looks incredibly tough. I have only one opponent and I have used, in order:

DEN BAL NYG SEA ATL GB ARI STL NE CIN CAR.

I guess my best options are:

Vikings (@ ATL)
Colts (vs. TB)
Chiefs (vs. BUF)
Raiders (@ TEN)


Any ideas? Thanks a lot.

What has your opponent used?

In order, he has used:

GB NO NE SEA ATL NYJ ARI CAR CIN PHI KC

I'm just pulling up SurvivorGrid side by side with those teams plugged in. A lot can change with injuries and such, so grain of salt and check back on Friday.

Week 12, advantage you. NYJ, KC, and JAX all favored by 4, he's only got JAX.
Week 13, mostly same teams available for both of you.
Week 14, you've got NYJ -8, he'll have to use STL -6 or DEN -4.5
Week 15, you've both got MIN -7.
Week 16, you've got PHI -6.5 and KC -7, he's got a bunch of -4.5's.
Week 17, probably not worth thinking about right now.

Based on that, I would take JAX in week 12.
-They've got no future value.
-You want to save NYJ and KC for 14 and 16.
-If he doesn't take JAX, it means you've got an edge this week.
-He'll probably take JAX, so you avoid the variance of potentially losing on a -4 while he wins on JAX -4.

Since there's no future value to consider, it's simple math or simulation.

Assuming:
5 on SEA at 87.5% to win
1 on CAR at 75% to win
2 on NE at 75% to win
1 on JAX at 57% to win

Running the numbers gives the EV as:
SEA: 3%
CAR: 8%
NE -2.5%
JAX: -21.5%


Of course with this few people, it's volatile. If it was 4 on SEA and 2 on CAR, then CAR would become slightly -EV so you wouldn't have wanted to switch to them.

Next week will be interesting. Your three big games are ARI -10.5, GB -10, and CIN -8. Normally CIN would be a pretty good spot, but this pool is out of Ohio so there are a lot of Bengals fans. That said, only 4/99 picks have been on CIN so far.

Cool, thanks for looking into it! Not sure if I can stomach riding my Survivor hopes on the Jacksonville ****ing Jaguars, but it seems to make sense. Still, I am leaning towards Kansas City. I don't think saving teams at this point is a great idea.

If that's the best option he has, picking along with him is your best option. There's no justification to taking a team you feel better about when they have the same chance of winning as Jacksonville when you can save a team like Kansas City for a better spot later. If he doesn't take Jacksonville, you have an advantage over him this week.

I see what you're saying, but if I take JAX as a 4 point favorite and he picks, say, Houston as a 3 point favorite, that does not necessarily mean that I have an advantage.

"I'm speechless, I'm without speech." - Eliane on Seinfeld

I'm right, right? The spread is created with the intention of booking an equal amount of action on each side.

Don't bother posting asking for advice if you have no intention of ever using it. Wampler took time to map it out for you. He obviously wasted his time. Just pick the team you trust the most.

you on the rag?

ProfBets

You're setting yourself up for a big angle.

The best MLs this week are...

-380
-425
-500

The -380 game is tonight. It's been made clear that a deal can't be made if someone picks a game today. You're waiting to hear back from 1 person. There are 8 guys hoping and waiting to hear from the 9th guy that he accepts the deal. What's stopping someone from picking Green Bay tonight - the 3rd best pick this week?

Basically, this chop discussion has made this pool a pick Team B or Team C pool. However, if someone picks Team A, they'll have the 3rd best team and likely be the only person on that team. That'll give them an EV advantage and possibly an incredible hedge opportunity. Whoever doesn't pick Cincinnati will be picking Arizona for sure.

Yeah I should of just picked one of those games and screwed over everyone else out of a chop for a whole nother week as was the case that happened to all of us last week.

However, because of a combination of not being a dicck and not having enough time around thxgiving activities, I ended up laying off all of the games. A partial deal was agreed upon and 2 of 9 were knocked out on GB. If anything, I would of took CAR b/c I had no idea why it was a PK by the time of kickoff when I thought it should of easily been a CAR -3.5 or up to CAR -6.5 type of spread, which obv CAR easily won. I didn't like GB at all. (At least I had a bet on CAR PK tho).

Nvm I'm just now realizing u prob meant that Team A was GB? Didn't like GB at all and glad I stayed off them obv, while 2 of 9 took them after the partial deal was arranged.

It doesn't matter that they lost. If someone locked in GB in case a deal wasn't made (most people wouldn't think to pick them afraid to nullify a deal), that player would have an EV advantage. Your capping skills has nothing to do with it.

A situation was setup (by trying to do a last second deal) for someone to be the loan person on Green Bay.