Why?

I'm the same way, try to avoid road teams and divisional games. Teams tend to play much stronger at home/worst on the road (see STL v SEA) and divisional games are much tougher to predict (see WAS over DAL, NO narrowly escaping at home over TB).

Denver was the only road game I've picked so far (NYJ).

like NYC said besides picking road teams i think it is worse to pick divisional game… Those games for the most part are unpredictable… The non division games tend to go how you expect them to go more times than not

If thats how you guys feel you should be betting the underdog in vegas for every road or divisional game.

That.

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That's quite a leap. Obviously road and divisional favorites usually win, however in a game where it's one and done, I much rather reduce my variance.

Would you not say that a -400 road team wins the same amount as a -400 home team?

I actually don't know and would love to see the data.

i am not saying a team like oakland will win this week but i bet oakland covers this week. they are getting 13 points… same thing with the rams getting 7.5 points is way to much.

I'd like to see the data too, but I have a strong suspicion that home/away/divisional/injured star/rain/etc. is all factored into the line and a -400 team under any condition wins at the same rate as another -400 team.

Basically if you disagree with that premise, then there should be money to be made and you don't need to be playing survivor.

As for njpokerplayer24, good luck with your spread bets this week...I am going to fade them just because.

Pro handicappers in this thread.

Ive been wanting to say what housenuts just said for awhile now.

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going Denver in all my remaining pools. If they lose 2 in a row so be it.

I have to make double picks this week...125 people remain for about $30k up top. I have plenty of teams to choose from.

I am fairly certain that I will use AZ with one of the picks. There is no way to know for sure pick distribution until the games start but you can see pick breakdown so far by those that have made their pick. The only caveat is that they can change it up until game time. So far the top six picks are:

Batimore: 21 picks 21% (80% WP)
Arizona: 16 picks 16 (74% WP)
Seattle: 13 picks 13% (78% WP)
Denver: 12 picks 12% (83% WP)
Dallas: 10 picks 10% (74% WP)
Pittsburgh: 8 picks 8% (67% WP)

I've used: GB, CHI, IND, ATL, WASH, SD, CIN, MIN, NE, CLEV, SEA

So approx. 100 of the 125 entries are in but again those selections could change.

I'd prefer to save Denver for week 14 vs Buffalo at home if possible. Dallas has virtually zero future value based on schedule. Romo didn't practice yesterday but that is the norm for him since his back surgery. AZ is another with low future value, IMO as well. The EV on Dallas is slightly higher than 1.00 but the scare the bazeesus out of me and I am a Cowboys fan. Looking at Philly week 12 vs TN...

Thoughts? Leaning AZ/Dal

I am in a mid-season spread pool too...same rules except you have to use the spread for the one team you use. It's incredibly difficult...lol....the attrition rate is about 50% and is usually over after 4-5 weeks. I love that it is a quick ROI but I rarely get by the 3rd week. I just have no luck with spreads. Any stand out to you sharps??

Glennon is being benched for McCown and Atlanta is coming off a bye week where they have to listen to how bad they are 24/7 on sports talk radio here in Atlanta for 2 weeks straight...any chance those two items factor in or is that a square way to look at it?

Cleveland at Cincinnati Cincinnati -6.5
Atlanta at Tampa Bay Atlanta -0.5
Dallas at Jacksonville Dallas -5.5
Kansas City at Buffalo Kansas City -1.5
Miami at Detroit Detroit -2.5
Pittsburgh at NY Jets Pittsburgh -4.5
San Francisco at New Orleans New Orleans -4.5
Tennessee at Baltimore Baltimore -9.5
Denver at Oakland Denver -11.5
NY Giants at Seattle Seattle -9.5
St. Louis at Arizona Arizona -7.5
Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay -7.5
Carolina at Philadelphia Philadelphia -6.5

Don't tap the glass too much. Those posts are some of the best in the thread. Always nice to have a good laugh every once in a while

Im picking Baltimore this week and they're almost a lock, my real concern is next week.

I used the following teams already:

Week 1: Philadelphia
Week 2: Denver
Week 3: New England
Week 4: San Diego
Week 5: Green Bay
Week 6: San Francisco
Week 7: Buffalo
Week 8: Cleveland
Week 9: Seattle
Week 10: Baltimore

So my pickings are slim for next week, when i originally picked all the weeks I had Chicago at home over Minnesota but now that Chicago is a dumpster fire, im not sure... New Orleans at home over Cincinnati? New Orleans hasn't lost at home in forever and Cincinnati is terrible on the road. Pittsburgh at Tennessee?

I am by no means a sharp but my favorite picks against the spread are (in order):

Philadelphia
Detroit
Buffalo
Atlanta

I like KC to cover that 1.5 spread (that's a sport fans opinion not a gamblers)

washington vs tb, arizona vs det, mia vs buf should be good for you.

Thoughts on AZ this week?

I'm in a 19 man double elimination pool with 8 players left. Only me and one other are undefeated, and that player has already used only strong favorites. So his selection are becoming very slim. Any player that "survives" to the end of the reg season gets an equal chop of the entire prize pool. So far I've used:
1.Phi
2. Was
3. ATL
4. Mia
5. Pitt
6. SD
7. NE
8. Cle
9. Sea

So my plan is AZ this week. And tentative plans for:

11. DEN
12. SF
13. Indy
14. GB
15. KC or Bal
16 NO
17. HOU or Bal

Any thoughts?

Week 11 is going to cost you some serious sweat. Your options look something like:

10. Bal
11. Was/Mia/??
12. Indy
13. Hou
14. Det
15. KC
16. No/Mia
17. Mia

You absolutely have to be able to take NO or Mia for week 16, and in this injury ridden league I'd want to have some options and not force myself into a predetermined pick 2 months out by taking one of those teams now. What I'm saying is you can't use the NO next week unless your in a pool with a decent chance of everyone being elimated by week 16.

I think you kinda backed yourself into a corner here by using too many strong teams early in the season without constantly reevaluating your season long plan.

Dolphins have lost the last 3 versus buffalo no way im picking them, Tannehil really struggles against the bills.

Washington versus Tampa is tempting, typically i dont like picking terrible teams, regardless of how bad the other team is.

And arizona vs detroit, im not even sure who is home in that game but I bet that spread is 3 or less so idk how that would be a good survivor pick.

Yeah I probably did back myself into a corner, and i thought the same thing u did, that i need to save new orleans for week 16. There are only 8 players left in my league? would the small amount of players remaining change your strategy at all?

This is what i have:

12: Indy
13: New York Giants (Save Houston for week 17?)
14: Detroit
15: KC
16: I had Miami, if a picked new orleans in week 11
17: Houston vs. Jacksonville

Yes. The smaller the amount of players the easier it is to guess what each team will take and you can make your pick accordingly. Also smaller pools won't really pick in accordance with the public pick % so just picking the biggest becomes more correct. You'll have to do some guesswork with 8 to determine who they are likely to pick