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nfl not make the playoff bets?

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08-22-2014 , 07:19 PM

rivercitybirdie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,726

want to make a few of these this year for fun... probably take either side depending..... these are where i pick say 6 teams that won't make the playoffs. and they all have to miss to win the bet. apparently alot harder that it might sound at first.

anyone have advice as to odds that make it 50/50 or so.... also, something like 25/75 odds.

thanks in advance!!!

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08-22-2014 , 07:28 PM

rivercitybirdie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,726

did really basic back-of-envelope due dilligence on this for the last 3 years?

teams 5 wins and under vs. next season....

2010 ------> 2011

2 of 6 33% made playoffs

2011 ------> 2012

3 of 7 43% made playoffs......

2012 ------> 2013

2 of 7 28% made playoffs

thoughts: combos of key player injured the first year, drafted stud QB, teams that have feasted on high draft picks finally click. and some randomness..... not sure off-hand how many teams make the playoffs but it's alot. 12? or is it more now?

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08-25-2014 , 08:39 PM

LanceFedora

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 203

Oakland-Tenn--Jack---Dallas----St.Louis-----Carolina

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08-27-2014 , 03:50 PM

Ratterman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 405

Using Vegas lines for season win totals:

2007, 5 teams at 6.5 or lower, 0 made playoffs
2008, 8 teams at 6.5 or lower, 3 made playoffs
2009, 6 teams at 6.5 or lower, 1 made playoffs
2010, 7 teams at 6.5 or lower, 1 made playoffs
2011, 9 teams at 6.5 or lower, 1 made playoffs
2012, 7 teams at 6.5 or lower, 3 made playoffs
2013, 7 teams at 6.5 or lower, 0 made playoffs

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08-27-2014 , 06:15 PM

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 52,662

is there a way do to a pool for this?

like $20 per person, all submit 6 teams. everyone who is correct, splits prize pool?

i guess if no one is correct can be split amongst entries where only 1 made playoffs, and so forth. perhaps tiebreakers can be worst records overall.

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08-27-2014 , 07:45 PM

LanceFedora

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 203

I would do a pool if we pick 10 teams

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