Brutal, Juice. Brutal.

LOSS
0-5 -10.3u on 10.3u bet

bah. got tarped by a rogue book on this one. my model was right in line with the better sportsbooks that had the Bengals at o/u 20. one silly site had 20.5. Given that the push pct on the 20 is over 7%, I loved this bet.

shoulda stuck to just pointspreads with my tilt would of nailed it since packers/giants covered too

What is the market for these bets? A nickle? So you've found some old school book(s) who doesn't understand the difference between mean and median. Woo hoo!

Strong thread.

yep... a nickel
hey, I'm not trying to start a thread for these. I was just looking for an overall NFL exhibition thread and there was none.

Vikings tt o15.5 -115 to win 3u

at least I'll lose betting an over this time

Date placed:
Aug 19, 2010 6:34p


Date settled:
Aug 22, 2010 12:16a
3 Team Teaser #182993540 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(411) Miami Dolphins +8 Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Miami Dolphins 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 26


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(420) Carolina Panthers +7½ Sat@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New York Jets 9
Carolina Panthers 3

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 180.39 to win US$ 324.70


Date placed:
Aug 19, 2010 6:32p


Date settled:
Aug 21, 2010 11:17p
2 Team Teaser #182993263 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(420) Carolina Panthers +7½ Sat@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New York Jets 9
Carolina Panthers 3

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 438.00 to win US$ 398.18


Date placed:
Aug 19, 2010 3:29p


Date settled:
Aug 21, 2010 11:17p
2 Team Teaser #182978879 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(420) Carolina Panthers +7½ Sat@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New York Jets 9
Carolina Panthers 3

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 111.91 to win US$ 101.74


Date placed:
Aug 19, 2010 3:28p


Date settled:
Aug 21, 2010 10:39p
2 Team Teaser #182978834 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(403) New England Patriots +8½ Thu@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New England Patriots 28
Atlanta Falcons 10


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 450.00 to win US$ 409.09


Date placed:
Aug 18, 2010 3:20p


Date settled:
Aug 22, 2010 12:16a
2 Team Teaser #182924728 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(411) Miami Dolphins +8 Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Miami Dolphins 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 26


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(420) Carolina Panthers +7½ Sat@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New York Jets 9
Carolina Panthers 3

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 80.25 to win US$ 72.95


Date placed:
Aug 18, 2010 3:19p


Date settled:
Aug 22, 2010 12:16a
2 Team Teaser #182924712 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(411) Miami Dolphins +8 Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Miami Dolphins 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 26


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 100.00 to win US$ 90.91


Date placed:
Aug 18, 2010 3:19p


Date settled:
Aug 21, 2010 11:17p
2 Team Teaser #182924690 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(403) New England Patriots +8½ Thu@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New England Patriots 28
Atlanta Falcons 10


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(420) Carolina Panthers +7½ Sat@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New York Jets 9
Carolina Panthers 3

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 136.36


Date placed:
Aug 18, 2010 3:18p


Date settled:
Aug 21, 2010 10:39p
2 Team Teaser #182924677 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(403) New England Patriots +8½ Thu@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New England Patriots 28
Atlanta Falcons 10


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(413) Kansas City Chiefs +8½ Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Kansas City Chiefs 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 100.00 to win US$ 90.91


Date placed:
Aug 18, 2010 3:18p


Date settled:
Aug 22, 2010 12:16a
2 Team Teaser #182924650 (Placed by Web)
Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(403) New England Patriots +8½ Thu@8:00p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
New England Patriots 28
Atlanta Falcons 10


Football - NFL Exhibition (Game) Point Spread
NFL EXHIBITION
(411) Miami Dolphins +8 Sat@7:30p
Teased 6.0 points


Final Scores
Miami Dolphins 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 26

Outcome:
Win



Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 136.36

yep, I'm crushing the teasers this week as well. Unfortunately, I did get caught putting the Eagles in at +9 on 6 pt teasers when they were +2.5 on Friday. I'm at 7 of 8 legs this weekend with only the Vikings left.

I noticed bodog bumped tonights to +3 (-130), what do you think about that?

any value in -3 +110 you think?

bodog is just giving away a free half point there (though the 9 isn't worth all that much, it's still a gift)

but there is nothing to latch it onto today at Bodog.

really don't think you need the 6 in the pre season

past 3 years been killing it [only losing week was week 4 last year] with 5 point +105 as long as you go through the 7

prolly due to the lower totals

ty for that. i didn't even look at something like that. inattentional blindness FTL

i'm not sure if just been running good or if its true

but i guess smaller total => points worth more money => every spread seems to be 2.5/3 so don't have to worry about 1.5/2 => buying off/thru the 3 and 7 are super powerful so just going through that should make the bet a good one

in the regular season last year i've been doing 5 points with 2.5s/7.5s 5.5 with 8/2, 6 with others

like if it was 1.5, 2, 2.5, -7.5

5 point 2.5/-7.5
5.5 point 2/2.5, 2/-7.5
6 point 1.5/2, 1.5/2.5/1.5/-7.5

and so forth for the three teams

I'll definitely look into it. I'm sure you have already crunched the numbers.

That being said, Go Vikes +8.5/+9

I also vaguely remember reading something in the think tank on sbr about the last week of exhibition not working out well. My guess is it is just variance. Some were proposing a theory for why it was different.

Team Totals distribution for NFLX is smoother than reg season, for more than one reason, so you need to make a downward adjustment for strong numbers (and vice versa). The Twenty is especially hit harder since 20-17 is a much more common score in reg season. This game and this game and this game are good examples of why.

Wow Im just gonna start betting against you every pick. You might want to pick up a new hobby.

LOSS
0-6 -13.75u on 13.75u bet

i wish it were a hobby

phew

sadly, my model sees no edge in the lines available for tonight's game. Sorry, nothing for you guys to fade.

Is it a similar model to the one that gave 4% for the Thirteen and 3% for the Nine in that Pitt/Cleve game a while back?

yeah, but with a whole lot more blood, sweat, and tears put into it.
different decision tree in exhibition on 2 pointers.
different average number of drives in exhibition.
different mix of TDs to FGs in exhibition.

This is gonna sound retarted but what exactly is a "model?" I assume an excel program?

I'm monte carlo'ing drives to mimic the actual scoring expected given the spread and total on pinnacle, unique td v fg scoring mixes for NFL teams, and score of the game being simulated.