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Need to set a line for a bet

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03-18-2008 , 02:15 PM

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

A friend and I want to bet on the total wins for the Washington Nationals vs the Pittsburgh Pirates for the season. I have the Pirates; what is a "fair" spread for this bet? I have a number in mind but don't want to anchor the discussion.

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03-18-2008 , 02:18 PM

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

use this as a reference

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=143311

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03-18-2008 , 02:18 PM

cookieb

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,268

Washington -3 wins is the number at Pinny right now.

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03-18-2008 , 02:21 PM

cookieb

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookieb

Washington -3 wins is the number at Pinny right now.

I should note the values as well

Washington over 71.5 -114 under -102
Pitt over 68.5 -140 under +124

Maybe a more fair line is -2.5

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03-18-2008 , 03:55 PM

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

So I guess my question is this. From checking lines at various sports books, one would conclude that the fair line is pirates +2.5 or even 3. But the Pecota projections for the two teams are 71 and 70, setting a fair line at pirates +1. Can anyone speak knowledgeably about the discrepancy here? I thought the Pecota rankings were pretty much considered the golden standard, but know that books wouldn't be putting up lines with a decided edge. I come to you seeking education

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03-18-2008 , 04:08 PM

youtalkfunny

dumbest smart person his mom knows

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 21,758

Unless this PECOTA guy is putting his money where his mouth is, I'd go with the bookmakers' numbers.

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03-18-2008 , 04:13 PM

ThankgodforRB

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 934

Quote:

Originally Posted by jesse8888

Based on the pinny line, I definitely don't think it's 3 and probably not 2.5 either. More like 2 although I'm not exactly an expert on how much juice each .5 game is worth here.

Using PECOTA and the pinny line, I'm going to go ahead and say I think either 1.5 or 2 is fair. Flip a coin and go with one of those.

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03-18-2008 , 05:31 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

Unless this PECOTA guy is putting his money where his mouth is, I'd go with the bookmakers' numbers.

lol

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03-18-2008 , 06:37 PM

NegativeZero

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,358

One game is worth about -120, so 68.5 wins -120 would approximate to 69.5 wins +100.

Approx. no juice PT ov 68.5 -132, WS ov 71.5 -106.

PT ov 68.5 -132 ~ ov 69.5 -110.

Approx. spread should be PT +2, -104. Approx. money line PT +140.

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03-19-2008 , 01:40 AM

#10

ProfessorBen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

Quote:

Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

Unless this PECOTA guy is putting his money where his mouth is, I'd go with the bookmakers' numbers.

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Originally Posted by Thremp

lol

Damn. all these bets that i thought were +EV are all ****ed.

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03-19-2008 , 02:55 AM

#11

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

Damn. all these bets that i thought were +EV are all ****ed.

I'm not following.

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