Hey Guys,

Thought seeing as I was taking up so much space in the football thread, it would be beneficial for all for me to start up my own thread. I dont want this to turn out to be a blog for me, I might as well just go to a blogging site if thats the case, im hoping that a couple of you will pop in from time to time and have a look at whats going on.

Over the past Month, the system is in profit over approx 60-70 bets, by nearly 5 units. However after reviewing the backing system for last month, I found that MORE profit would have been made if instead of BACKING the chosen team, I had LAYED the Opposing team. With Liabilities ranging between 3-5 Units, there was only approximately 15% losing bets for the Laying option, and thus I have decided to trial this alongside my Backing system for the following month

PLEASE NOTE: ANY bets you see in this thread, I am ONLY PAPER-TRADING until I state otherwise. The system has only been running a month and this is not long enough to determine whether it is profitable at higher stakes in the long run. Time will tell

Matches reviewed for the System are ALL of the matches available on Betfair, inside the top 2 tiers for that country, with the only exception being England, where all tiers are considered. How do I get through such a vast amount of matches? Well each match has to get through a set of criteria in order to qualify, the first of which, knocks 90% of the matches straight out, leaving a much smaller group with which to work with.

Below are the results so far for the Backing System, AND now the newly added Laying System.

BACKING SYSTEM
March 2010 - Profit of 4.6 Units
02/04/10 - Loss of 0.2 Units
03/04/10 - Profit of 0.3 Units

Total Profit - 4.7 Units

LAYING SYSTEM
Begins - 04/04/10

Unless I am in a rush, matches will be displayed in the following format:

Country and Division
Match
System 1 - Back (x) @ (a)
System 2 - Lay (y) @ (b)

So without further ado, below are the picks for tomorrows action!

English Premiership
Fulham Vs Wigan Athletic
Back Fulham @ 2.2
Lay Wigan @ 4

French Ligue 1
Auxurre Vs Paris St-Germain
Back Auxurre @ 2.22
Lay PSG @ 3.75

Disclaimer: Any bets that are followed by any user are done so at their own risk! Profit is NOT guaranteed.

Good Luck to us all!
NCFC

What exactly is your system?

Are you substracting the 5% commision from your wins?

Yep, the 5% commission is taken into account along with other criteria that "in theory" should give it an edge

You should include your unit stake in your picks

are you factoring in which team's players are betting at diving and writhing around in fake agony to draw cards? gimme a break soccer....

And the point of this was?.... Apart from to provoke an argument of course.

If you dont like it, dont comment on it. Simple

Sorry buddy. Should state that all Back bets are 1 Unit, and all Lay Bets are set to 1 Unit to gain (So liability of a few units)

Obviously this would mean that a bigger starting bankroll would be needed for the Lay Bets than the Back Bets

Nice start with Fulham picking up the win. Will update thread much later tonight, as now off to Poker and wont be in till gone Midnight. Shall also put Tomoros picks up also, anticipating quite a few with all the Easter Monday games on!

Since you're not betting real money it doesn't matter.........but this is wrong.
The lay bets will win more often.

No, its right. Say you have £100, and you stake £5 (1/20th of your BR) for each game. To lay for £5 stake, your liability will be £15-25 (which is significantly more than your backing stake meaning you are wagering up to 1/4th of your BR on a game, meaning you need more to start with to cover bad variance

Not a bad start, especially with the Lay System although 2 games is nothing! Bets for tomorrow coming up!

BACKING SYSTEM
March 2010 - Profit of 4.6 Units
02/04/10 - Loss of 0.2 Units
03/04/10 - Profit of 0.3 Units
04/04/10 - Profit of 0.2 Units

Total Profit - 4.9 Units

LAYING SYSTEM
04/04/10 - Profit of 2.0 Units

Total Profit - 2.0 Units

3 Picks for Monday 5th April 2010

English Championship
Nottingham Forest Vs Cardiff City
Back Notts F @ 2.04
Lay Cardiff @ 4.3

English League One
Gillingham Vs Southend United
Back Gillingham @ 2.12
Lay Southend @ 4.1

Swiss Super League
FC Zurich Vs Grasshoppers Zurich
Back FC Zurich @ 2.2
Lay GC Zurich @ 3.7

Luck!

No, it's wrong. Your unit stake size is too high.
In this scenario a £1 stake is about right i'd say....
You'd be risking £1 on bets that win @ approx. %40-55 and risking £3-5 on bets that win @ %65-%80.
under no circumstances is you bankroll size dictated by the price you bet/lay at.

Right. The back, you will be risking £5 to win between £3-7. The Lay you will be risking £15-25 to win £5. The amount to win is the SAME, but the amount risked is different. Its higher for laying, meaning you need a bigger BR. This enables a direct comparison between the 2 systems.

I understand what you are saying in the fact the if you're doing that for backing, then for laying you should be only risking the same £5, to win just £1-2, but at the end of the day it doesnt really matter. Its perfectly acceptable to start with a bigger bankroll and aim to win the same as what you would have done using the backing system.

But anyway, whilst we are refering to Units, its irrelevant

I don't want to dwell on this too much as you're not risking real money, but that's not what I am saying and if you use the same br management when/if you start betting real money you will go bust.
Amount risked is relative to br size, perceived edge and the odds wagered at.
Since you are testing and don't know what your edge is(or if you have one over a significant sample size) Risking %5 of your br @ even money, even if you had a %1 edge, is way too much. With the stakes mentioned above both br's should be £500.
Also you should use ROI to compare not units p/l.

Yes, 1/20th of BR is too much, it was purely an example. My point is that to win the SAME amount on both systems, you would have to RISK more on the laying system, therefore needing more to start with if you wanted to wager 1/20th of your BR per match.

Anyway, onwards and upwards!

All 3 lays came off without threat, Unfortuantly Forest couldn't fire in a winner, but yet another day with profit

Bets for tomoro will be up tonight!

BACKING SYSTEM
March 2010 - Profit of 4.6 Units
02/04/10 - Loss of 0.2 Units
03/04/10 - Profit of 0.3 Units
04/04/10 - Profit of 0.2 Units
05/04/10 - Profit of 1.32 Units

Total Profit - 6.22 Units

LAYING SYSTEM
04/04/10 - Profit of 2.0 Units
05/04/10 - Profit of 3.0 Units

Total Profit - 5.0 Units

Barely any games for tomorrow, which I didn't realise until I looked just now, and only 1 games anywhere falls within the required odds range, and that doesnt qualify through other criteria, so no picks for tomoro!

1 Pick for tonight. Im not very confident on it at all, but its come up through the system so I'm sticking it in there!

German 3. Liga
Dynamo Dresden Vs Borussia Dortmund II
Back Dresden @ 1.9
Lay Dortmund @ 4.9

Dresden 2-0 up at half time Should be yet another winner

Nice win today, although I must admit, I had my doubts. 3-0 up and Dortmund tried hard to pull it back but the 2nd just came too late in the day.

Tomorrows bets if there are any will be up mid-afternoon

BACKING SYSTEM
March 2010 - Profit of 4.6 Units
02/04/10 - Loss of 0.2 Units
03/04/10 - Profit of 0.3 Units
04/04/10 - Profit of 0.2 Units
05/04/10 - Profit of 1.32 Units
07/04/10 - Profit of 0.9 Units

Total Profit - 7.12 Units

LAYING SYSTEM
04/04/10 - Profit of 2.0 Units
05/04/10 - Profit of 3.0 Units
07/04/10 - Profit of 1.0 Unit

Total Profit - 6.0 Units

Just looked and there are no picks for tomorrow! Will undoubtably be some for Friday (Most probably French)

Good thread this NCFC. Keep it going.

Sent you a PM NCFC

Cheers Buddy

@ Steven - Just got your PM, now runnin out the door so will reply later tonight