I am amazed by some of these lines for tomorrow. Getting a bunch of my games in tonight

I'm just now going to start handicapping this weekend. I do well thought following so far. I have 10-20 picks a day. I have an excel formula set up based upon information available on each person. I list all my picks per day from people and then determine bets and size from formula. To better their record/win% (weighted with consideration to reliability), sample size, the more credit the bet gets. More people choosing a game also bumps the play, but much less due to people who can follow.

I wish I was better at excel. Parts of this are done by hand. But it's semi quick and reliable. My daily reading of sports news helps as well. Sometimes I pass on what this system says are my best bets.

jdock, be more concerned about finding something that is +EV and less concerned with short term variance(i.e. no more "I thought these o/u bets were +EV but they lost 2 days in a row so I must quit them immediately!!!!)

JD, NBB Special #3

West Virginia/Missouri State Over 131.5.

LOVE the card tomorrow. Let's make that guap.

This is basically what I do but I am not very precise about it. There is like 20 guys on SBR posting "locks" so I just cherrypick some guys that are my fav's and try my best to avoid picks where they bet opposite sides.

Like I said before, only problem in doing this is some of those guys dont post their picks until right before game time (like JD often does) so I am constantly forced to bet lines that have moved against me, which I think has hurt me more in the O/U's, which is a reason I am avoiding them.

There is 2 things. I am not running well in the short term AND I cannot bet O/U's with reduced juice, leading me to avoid them. You do not realize how much that juice adds up until you are betting 20 games a night, and have nights where you are losing significant $$, even when you are breaking even in your picks.

75-57-2 +23.9 units

Have some free time now. Really liking todays card.

South Florida/Southern Miss over 124 for 3 units- Both these teams are coming off of great second halfs in their previous games where they each put up a lot of points. South Florida is terrible on the road and really stagnant sometimes, but Southern Miss should turn this tempo into a run and gun game, and this should lead to plenty of transition points for both teams. Also, both teams have been hoisting a lot of three's recently, so even if they are off tonight, this should lead to a lot of fast breaks as well.

Miami +1 for 5 units- I'm 1-0 in my 5 unit plays. Miami is a very bad road team (0-3), but this has been against West Virginia, Purdue, and Ole Miss. Charlotte is playing their 6th consecutive home game, having won the last 5, but only 1 of their last 5 opponents has been any good in Davidson. I had Davidson that game so I watched it all, and Davidson came out flat and terrible. I can assure you that the Davidson that lost to Charlotte would've lost to Kansas by 35 recently instead of winning. People have been jumping on Charlotte so far based on these fact alone, as the line opened at Miami -2 last night. I think the original line was way off, and now Miami is getting a point. Having seen both teams play, I think Miami definitely has an edge. Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant are so versatile and really boost this team on offense. Miami is coming off a game against FAU where they just shot 70% from three, and hopefully this confidence and 3 point efficiency continues tonight. Even shooting that well from deep, it took them double OT to beat FAU. However, FAU played out of their mind hitting nearly every shot, and instead of looking at this game as Miami only winning by 3, I look at it as Miami beating a very efficient team on a neutral site. Now Miami should have an edge on offense tonight, as they have so many scoring options and play different styles throughout the game, but Charlotte may have an edge on defense, specifically their big rebounders down low. But to counter that, Reggie Johnson is back and fully healthy for Miami as he scored 15 points with 9 rebounds in his debut against FAU. This team is completely different with Reggie Johnson down low, as a lot of their early season big rebounding losses will be lessened substantially, not to mention he adds yet another look on offense and opens up the floor even more for Scott and Grant. Johnson and Kadji down low should be a handful for Charlotte bigs tonight. Also, the senior forward Dequan Jones is back for Miami coming off his suspension and tonight will be his first game. This wasn't an injury or anything, so he should be fresh and ready to play. He adds even more height and another great role option on offense. Based on looking at both of these team's resumes without actually watching either and knowing their capabilities, Charlotte seems like an obvious pick, and I think this is what the public has been doing so far. I know Miami seems bad on the road, but there strength of schedule has been insane so far and it isn't really fair to label them this way just yet. Tonight will be a big game. Based on these team's style, I think Miami will simply be much more fluid on offense, and now that you add Johnson and Jones to the mix, it should make a huge difference.

Florida Atlantic +14.5 for 3 units- Snatched this line last night as soon as it came out. FAU has a knack for hanging around as demonstrated in their last game against Miami. I think this trend will continue tonight. Add this to the fact that Harvard's deliberate offense doesn't really blow teams out, and I feel confident taking over 14 here.

Auburn/Hawaii under 138 for 3 units- Auburn is used to playing bad teams and are holding these teams to just 61 ppg's. I think the same will happen tonight at Hawaii. I am hoping that the long road trip slows down their offense even more than it already is.

James Madison +2 for 2 units- George Washington has been a train wreck lately, and James Madison has stayed pretty consistent throughout the season. I am going to follow this trend.

Still looking over the card. This is what I have for now. May have more later. GL

gl, like miami pick

JD, would you play Florida Atlantic +12.5 3 UNITS?

JD, i know you looking at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Would take that for 2 units

Haha, I actually was looking at them, but now that their streak is over I think Vegas is starting to figure them out better. Too much stress constantly taking teams with 20+ turnovers hoping they can keep a game within reason but never expecting them to actually win

Can you make your own thread jdock? You post quite a bit of nonsense and it gets in the way of the stuff I do care to read. I've been meaning to put you on ignore for a while, but I feel that even then you really clog up the forum and discourage the better posters. One thread where you just post all your random thoughts and bets (and then stop posting in any other threads) would be great for the forum. Not trying to be a dick, its just that you probably don't realize how awful your posting is, and you really should. I'm positive that I'm not alone in recognizing your incompetency. Thoughts?

Just put me on ignore. I already ignore all your posts. I won't take it personal.

Im pounding your picks hard tonight !!! Cmon hurricanes !

Plays for today. I didn't realize games started so early so sorry if some of these have already started in case you are tailing my tails.

JM +2 1.5u
Miami +1 2u
Conn -12 1.5u
FAU +14 1u
Davidson +2.5 1u
Miami +24 1u
LB State -2.5 1.5u
Baylor -4 2u
Auburn/Haw u138 1u
Mizzou -7 1u
Loyala MD +24.5 1u
Idaho +3.5 1u
Tenn Tech -11 1u
Oral Roberts -14 0.5u
Bradley +16.5 0.5u
Citadel +22.5 0.5u
E Mich +19.5 1u
CSUN +18.5 0.5u
SE Miss St +4.5 1u

-Maybe more to come later. Between this and football spread a little thin right now.

Hey Jdock, I think this is jd's thread. You should just start your own thread. I think you can get a following as well.

Agree, this is JD's thread.

I had a thread. I don't think MB locked it, but he kinda implied he was going to. Talk to him. If he lets me keep my thread I will move my picks there.

You should just start your own thread. MB won;t lock it. if he does, just use our posts as a reference. thank you

Did you even read what I wrote. I repeat, I had a thread and mb told me to shut it down. Why don't u guys just put me on ignore. I won't take it personal. I promise.

dude quit clogging up JD's thread. GTFO

lets get some tonight jd, love the write ups to bro, you have some great insight into the game.

going into a good capper's thread who ppl follow and look to for input and cluttering it up with your own picks (which lol are derived from other ppls picks and have no insight or analysis) is pretty dickish and ridiculous. find another way to get attention.

Is this a personal thread? If it is it should probably be renamed, cause the title kind of implies it is all inclusive for other people to post bets.

Anyways, not a big deal, I will stop posting. I encourage you all to put me on ignore anyways if you cannot stand my posting. I would rather you put me on ignore than complained to me that you do not like my posts. In fact, I encourage BlowCubsBlow and LedOutEthug to put me on ignore right now anyways.

Not gonna lie, thread title kinda sucks, and jd has had plenty of time to mention this if it annoyed him.

But it's jds role to point out issues with people posting here. Especially if you want to make a case that it's his thread... That would mean you have less right to try and voice an opinion about who or what can post here, than he has posting.

And I think everyone berating has stated in thread that they bet jds picks, so lol at making fun of how docks bets.

You guys are so lazy you don't want to have to see docks posts to get to your free money. The meanwhile jd himself is kind and polite and wishes docks good luck everyday...

Step back and think. I didn't say a word in this post that wasn't fact.

Adding IOWA-5 for 3 units

GL