D.Summers 3-Pt FG's made over 1½ +100

Michigan +4 -105

South Florida +1 -102

Boston College +3½ -105

Depaul +1 -102

all before adjustments.

i think the best proof our model works is how often it agrees with market lines.

Edit: nvm, best proof is that it beats closing lines. knowing syndicates are on my side.

marquette plus 4.5

florida plus 4.5

minne -17

I'm on Depaul +1.5, N. Illinois+9, and o143 in Fla-Kent all for 2u.

I can't bring myself to bet BC (fading the squares), but I will admit that when I saw that line I said OMG Clemson is going to crush them. All the more reason to take BC. Hmmmm....

Northern Illinois u134 -105 1.32 u

still hv no clue on how to handicap ncaab games.

ok, i did it. BC+3.5 for 2u.

I also added u148 in Clem-BC for 2u.

I like UK to win it, but don't like laying the 4. So UK money-line is my play.

** This is number two of afore predicted 8 straight losers by Cinch on UK or U of L games. See how it goes. (Which will still leave me at 60% winners for the year on those two teams.)

minnesota sucks

Sweating home that Kentucky under was madness.

80% FT shooter misses his last FT to make Florida go up 1. Game tied, OT will make total go over. Kentucky has the ball with almost all time remaining, and obv the play is let Meeks chuck it from far out with 3 seconds left. He takes a tuuuuuuuuurible fade away 3 and makes it! Then, some moran fouls Calathes heaving a deperation 3 to tie it with 1 sec left. Andddddddddddd he missed his first FT. Maybe God doesn't hate me.

I earned that **** with my first gray hairs.

Hmmm. Well over 80% winners still operative on these two teams for season. The guy with the 53% prop gonna be working in Siberia by tomorrow morning. Cockaroacha.

Illinois St pick em 5u

squares raped me last night

LSU moneyline +100 2u.

Wish I could bring myself to bet my team tonight, but I'll probably be pissed off during 95% of it until we pull away late, so I'd rather not have money weighing on me too.

.

ill. st. pickem 5u

wake -6 1u

tulsa plus 14 1u

penn st. plus 10.5 .8u

Maybe you are already aware but if you are not. ISU's point guard took an indefinite leave of absence as of yesterday. He is not even travelling with the team. Rumor has it he did not like being yelled at and critized. go figure.....averaging 3.6 TOs in conference and people were being critical.

it wasn't oguchi or eldridge, the rest are replaceable

11-Feb :
Memphis U u130 -105 0.88 u
Xavier -2.5 -105 1.29 u
Massachusetts o141 -107 1.31 u

Tulsa +14.5 (-110 surprisingly) 2u

squares made mucho dinero last night.

I've come to the realization that my strategy of fading the public, going against the grain, and with reverse line movement is a sound strategy, but needs some tweaking.

I am equating this strategy to only playing premiere hands in poker, and only thinking at the 2nd or 3rd level. This can be successful, but you can win a lot more money if you vary your plays, bluff occasionally, etc.

I can win money strictly going against the grain, but I also have other tendencies to bet other games that have no clear cut "edge". NCAAB (and NCAAF) are tough for me in that there are soooo many games, I feel like I don't want to only bet a few and miss out on others.

I need to advance my public fade strategy to something that limits my plays to the absolute best edge. Maybe it's lowering number of plays, increasing unit size, or something. I am going to work on being more disciplined.

I have a good grasp on NBA, and have for a few years. I should just stick to NBA as my only major wagering, but I can't.

I think my poker analogy makes sense. I need to get to that next level of sports betting (especially when it comes to NCAAB).

thoughts (good or bad) will be appreciated. thanks.

so i see UNC is -2 @ Duke. 88% of bets are on UNC, the line hasn't moved, and I'm POSITIVE MT2R's squares are on UNC.

It would seem easy for me to put a bet in for Duke. In my warped mind, it looks as if the books are fine with "backing" the Duke position. That's the side I should be on. But, when I woke up this morning, I said if the line is -3 or less, I have to bang UNC. UNC is flat out better than Duke, right? right?

Argggh. I guess I'll stay away. Plus the O-U seems low, which obviously means the game is going under....

Correct. Way more athletic too. With a dominating inside game vs dook. If we switch off of screens and guard the perimeter and laugh at their inside game we will be fine. Roy Williams has no problem outcoaching Coach K since he's came to Chapel Hill. His system and philosophy beats dook's better than they do ours. Basically depends on whether or not Wayne Ellington hits his shots and if Deon Thompson shows up to play defense and not be such a softy on offense. The rest I'm not worried about. Lawson will abuse Paulus as always. Danny Green should have no problems, neither should Tyler. If only we had Ginyard's defense for the game it would be a slam dunk.

does the lack of line movement scare you at all?

i took o139 in GaTech-VaTech for 3u

and put 1u on UNC-2 (yikes)

No. If we play our game we will win and cover. Henderthug and Singler are it. They still have no post game. Lawson will flat out abuse Paulus on offense and should on defense. So should Ellington on Scheyer. Like I said it all comes down to switching off of screens and giving no respect to the inside game that doesn't exist. That's what they did with Reddick and Williams. He would screen and when people tried to cover him he would throw it down low to Williams and he would score. Now they don't have that. So if you constantly keep switching and guarding the 3 and stop dribble penetration from the wings you can really expose them. If they shut down both Ellington and Green we might be in a lot of trouble. I don't see it though. Green is playing unbelievable as a starter, and Ellington is playing his best basketball of the season coming into this game. Henderthug can't stop them both

My squares are HUGE on UNC and Oklahoma
they have a decent lean on Wake as well

good call on Carolina TheWalk