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NCAA FB Week 8 NCAA FB Week 8

10-12-2008 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bills217
Arkansas +11 is prolly a gift too. I don't know if Kentucky can score 11.
Yeah, I knocked it all the way down to... 10.5.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
Not sure why Tenn favored by 8.5 over MissSt. They're at home, but...so unpredictably bad at times.
Have you seen Miss St. play offense?
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
You think GaT should be favored on neutral field by 6-7 pts?
No, I think Georgia Tech should be favored on a neutral field by 10-11 points, hence why I said -3 on the road would be a gift.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bills217
Have you seen Miss St. play offense?
More yds/game and better 3rd% than UT, more first downs, better ToP, put up 24 on LSU and just beat Vandy. I have seen UT play a bunch.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
No, I think Georgia Tech should be favored on a neutral field by 10-11 points, hence why I said -3 on the road would be a gift.
So did you max this line yet? I know you're a GT alum but wow...I won't worsen the thread by continuing this.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:14 PM
This Arkansas-Kentucky game is an interesting case. All the power-rating sycophants are gonna be like OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG UK 20 PTS BETTER IN POWER RATINGS

Meanwhile, in reality, Arkansas has played an extraordinarily tough schedule and been unlucky, while Kentucky has played an easy schedule and been lucky. Kentucky's offense is absolutely dreadful. In their only win of any significance (Louisville), they had 205 yards.

Look at what Arkansas did to an (admittedly mediocre) Auburn team last week, at Auburn. SMOKED them. Performed way better against them than LSU did. Was unlucky (like they have been in basically every game so far) and still won against a decent team on the road. Arkansas is sig better than the computer ratings reflect.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
More yds/game and better 3rd% than UT, more first downs, better ToP, put up 24 on LSU and just beat Vandy. I have seen UT play a bunch.
UT has played a much tougher schedule.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
So did you max this line yet? I know you're a GT alum but wow...I won't worsen the thread by continuing this.
Not an alum; also don't have a book to bet openers. I'll have at least 10 units on Georgia Tech this week though. Possibly more.

FWIW, Sagarin has Georgia Tech 7.5 points better on a neutral and that's still giving weight to preseason rankings that had Clemson in the Top Ten. Also, that number's brought way down by the week that Booker was playing QB and brought down somewhat by the fact that Demayrius Thomas missed most of the season. Georgia Tech also came into the season tied for fewest returning starters in the nation so they should be on an upward trend throughout the season.

Add in the fact that Clemson's going to be let down after being basically eliminated from the ACC Title race last week, and that they're picking this week to give up on their proven senior QB who's obviously the best choice if they were just looking to beat Georgia Tech rather than prepare for the future, and yeah I think GT should be favored by at least 7 on the road.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
So did you max this line yet? I know you're a GT alum but wow...I won't worsen the thread by continuing this.
They did beat the same Miss St. team you're so anxious to bet playing at UT - 38-7.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 08:18 PM
Texas Tech -21 at A & M???.. I have this game at 27 or 28.

The NC/UVA game is interesting. Virginia has been one of the most unpredictable teams this year. Think I like the Cavs here at home catching 6.

I like Baylor +16.5 in a classic let down game for OK St.

Lsu -3.5. Jumping on this early before it gets bet up to about 6 before Saturday.

Will be against ECU again big. They are terrible and Memphis is alot better than there 3-4 record.

Thoughts? Criticism? Name calling? I know you want to.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
Texas Tech -21 at A & M???.. I have this game at 27 or 28.
.
i was wondering if TAM has done anything promising this year. i wondered about the KSU-TAM line last week. can't remember what it was??
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Lsu -3.5. Jumping on this early before it gets bet up to about 6 before Saturday.
It'll be 2.5 or 3 on Saturday - might as well wait.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Lsu -3.5. Jumping on this early before it gets bet up to about 6 before Saturday.
Actually, I'll give you 5-1 on it ever touching 6 at any book rated A+ by SBR, if you're that confident - with the caveat that Dr. Bob does not play LSU. Perf can hold the money. Let me know.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:09 PM
i'm liking

uconn pick at rutgers
syracuse +23.5 @ USF (i know i said "never again" to syracuse)
vandy +15 @ georgia
TT -21 @ TAM
WSU +42 vs. USC (i must be nuts)
nevada -19.5 vs. utah state
marshall -3.5 @ UAB
army +10.5 @ buffalo
MTSU +14.5 @ louisville
ark state +4.5 @ ULL
FIU +7.5 @ troy (stay on the FIU bandwagon)
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:09 PM
Dont bet individulals online-- sorry, got screwed once and vowed never to do it again. However, imo the line will move up and not down and rightly so. SC o-line couldnt hold Kentucky front, what will they do against a pissed off LSU front?
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:12 PM
+42 seems fair on this line. I think the books have taken in the fact that Caroll doesnt let up and that USC will be looking to run up the score to move up the BCS polls.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
Dont bet individulals online-- sorry, got screwed once and vowed never to do it again. However, imo the line will move up and not down and rightly so. SC o-line couldnt hold Kentucky front, what will they do against a pissed off LSU front?
Kentucky's front is every bit as good as LSU's, and SC held it well enough to get 350 yards against the nation's top scoring defense, on the road, but whatever.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
+42 seems fair on this line. I think the books have taken in the fact that Caroll doesnt let up and that USC will be looking to run up the score to move up the BCS polls.
doesn't usc do terribly on the road in the pacific northwest where the weather is terrible? i think so but i'm not sure. of course, WSU is terrible. that's beyond question.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bills217
Kentucky's front is every bit as good as LSU's, and SC held it well enough to get 350 yards against the nation's top scoring defense, on the road, but whatever.

Kentucky's front is every bit as good as LSU's = not really
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
Kentucky's front is every bit as good as LSU's = not really
Kentucky - 17 sacks in 6 games
LSU - 9 sacks in 5 games
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
+42 seems fair on this line. I think the books have taken in the fact that Caroll doesnt let up and that USC will be looking to run up the score to move up the BCS polls.
FWIW, if Washington State had been +42 in all six of their FBS games this year, they'd be 3-3 against the spread. Oklahoma State, Baylor, and UCLA fell short of it, but Cal, Oregon, and Oregon State would have covered.

I'm pretty sure USC is the best team WSU will play this season, so... the only question is will USC put forth the effort to cover. There's zero doubt that they can do so if they want to. They do occasionally play lackluster low-effort games on the road in the Northwest though... *cough cough*. Overall I'd stay away from this game, but I think USC -42 is probably the better bet if you had to take a side.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobJoeJim
FWIW, if Washington State had been +42 in all six of their FBS games this year, they'd be 3-3 against the spread. Oklahoma State, Baylor, and UCLA fell short of it, but Cal, Oregon, and Oregon State would have covered.

I'm pretty sure USC is the best team WSU will play this season, so... the only question is will USC put forth the effort to cover. There's zero doubt that they can do so if they want to. They do occasionally play lackluster low-effort games on the road in the Northwest though... *cough cough*. Overall I'd stay away from this game, but I think USC -42 is probably the better bet if you had to take a side.
This is kind of a dangerous game in some respects. Any time one team controls the outcome (which is very close to being the case here), shaving/manipulation becomes really easy.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bills217
Kentucky - 17 sacks in 6 games
LSU - 9 sacks in 5 games
I thought you were all about being non results oriented.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
I thought you were all about being non results oriented.
dead? is that you?
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote
10-12-2008 , 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattyg34
I thought you were all about being non results oriented.
You don't understand what that means.
NCAA FB Week 8 Quote

      
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