Quote:
Originally Posted by MacauBungee
YTD: 2-4, 7.0u wagered, -2.0u lost
Bet 1.0 units Portland (-7.5) (+107) over Denver
Because Brandon Roy will score 39 tonight.
I guess it's impossible to go a full day of NBA and not make a single wager... even if the day is just two games.
B.Roy got off to slow start missing his first three field goals... C.Anthony looked his usual all-star self. Much props, Denver! I still like my Portland for NBA champs bet, $200 at +2800.
YTD: 2-5, 7.0u wagered, -3.0u lost
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Knicks @ Bobcats
Bet 1.5u Under 195.0 (-104)
(typing up the cavs game writeup took so long that total went to 195 from 193.5... originally this was meant to be a 1.0 bet, but I can't resist the free points)
Two below-average teams get beat badly (not to be confused with getting 'bad beat'. Those two losses were nothing like getting AA all in preflop and losing... oh no) on their opening nights. Getting a win here allows their coaches to keep a good face for another week or so. Conversely, starting the season 0-2 puts either team in a bad spot. Both the Bobcats who could get nothing going against hellacious Boston defense and continue to miss Raja Bell, and the Knicks who looked lost against a generally mediocre Miami D, will play their tails off.
I can see both teams shooting low 40s in FGs. As long as combined FTs do not exceed 40-45 (welcome back, 'regular refs'!), I like this to go under.
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Cleveland @ Minnesota
Bet 1.0u 1H Cavs (-6.5) (+101)
This Timberwolves team is terrible defending the paint. Their best bigs, Love and Jefferson, aren't much of defensive stoppers (not to mention that Kevin is out with wrist injury and Al hasn't been his old self after coming back from a blown knee). This is good news for a certain 37-year-old center from LSU
who got a night off and is a candidate for player of the game... if we disregard a certain triple-double machine on that same team.
Just two days ago, Brook Lopez of New Jersey collected 15 rebounds and scored 30 in 38 minutes. Minnesota blog writers heartily thanked NJ coach Lawrence for not playing his center longer minutes. This, and the fact Minnesota earned more FTs (35-29) and made more fast break points (16-8), combined to allow home team a narrow 95-93 win. Both FT and fast break point edges are charactericstic for these T-Wolves, as preseason demonstrated.
On to Cleveland. The first two games were a nightmare for the XL Cavaliers who got smothered by Boston (game wasn't even close after the very first time Lebron got rest). The same story in Toronto, where Turkoglu and Bargnani played surprisingly well. I'd like to point out that starting center
sucked a shaq-tus in the second halves of both games, and was average to better-than-average early on. Perkins did a great job on Shaq all game long; in the second game of back-to-back in Toronto,
Cleveland Cop #2 just was out of sync missing multiple shots inside five feet from the basket.
Shaquille and the Suns played Jefferson and the Timberwolves three times last season, last game being a meaningless one in April (which Minnesota had every reason to throw). Let's break down the two games that mattered:
Nov26, 2008 Suns 110 @ 102 Timberwolves (first half 61-43)
Shaq 33 minutes, 7-13 FG, 10 rebs, 18 points, +8
AlJef 39 minutes, 11-23 FG, 17 rebs, 28 points, -7
Jan16, 2009 Timberwolves 105 @ 103 Suns (first half 49-53)
Shaq 32 minutes, 9-13 FG, 11 rebs, 22 points, +10
AlJef 35 minutes, 10-21 FG, 12 rebs, 22 points, +1
Remember, Jefferson collected those stats while on a comparably bad Minnesota team. Foye and Miller are doing very well elsewhere right now. Flynn and Wilkins are solid, but Love is out tonight (and he contributed in both games discussed). Has Minnesota improved defensively? Hardly.
Shaq is obviously on a better team now. Cleveland looked bad, and will continue to look tentative until Delonte West comes back (could be as early as tonight, he's been working out with the team and its up to coach Brown who, I suspect, at this point will do anything to avoid a 0-3 start), or until they face a team that is ripe for the taking... like Minnesota.
What didn't work against Perkins and a top defense, will work tonight. Shaq will feast on Jefferson. He should keep putting the ball through the net thus eliminating most of the fast break opportunities and free throws, the two main sources of points for Minnesota. Jefferson should get his own vs Shaq too, but I can see Al a lone warrior tonight, much like James was in the Cavs' first two losses.
I'm not sure about -11.5 in this game. What I do know is Cleveland will play an excellent first quarter while both James and Shaq are on the floor. Both players command double teams, allowing that
wimpy all-star Mo Williams to get some open shots.
