One book has the charlotte bobcats at 35:1 and the atlanta hawks at 22:1 to win the NBAs southeast division.
Thegreek lists Orlando at -180 / field at +150. Assuming thegreek's line is sharp then one of MIA/cha/was/atl wins that division like 38% of the time. Since all 4 of those crapola teams have practically the same projected rsw total (36.5-37.5), shouldn't these 2 bets be a slam dunk?
Miami and Washington could do pretty much anything. I wouldn't be surprised with either 50 or 25 wins. Lots of uncertainty there, really depends on injuries.
I did consider the higher variance of Miami and Washington, but the price on charlotte and Atlanta is so good that there's some wiggle room. If each of the 4 aforementioned are equally likely to win, then the fair price on each is ~10:1. Surely none of these 4 teams' true odds to win the division are worse than, say, 17:1 (conservative estimate). I'm not going to bother quantifying the variance of each team's rsw when the bets seem massively +ev regardless.
