Quick question directly related to this topic:

I'm trying to put some rankings of my own together -- what do you all think is the different between a top team (EG: B+ -- A la, a Penn State) and a bad team (EG: D -- A la, Oregon State)

Right now, I have it as the following (based off an A+ being about 40 points better than an E-):

A-: +27.5
B+: +22
B: +16.5
B-: +11
C+: +5.5
C -: 0
C-: -5.5
D+: -11
D: - 16.5
D-: -22
E+: -27.5

Those are definitely off, as evidenced (for example) on the spreads that I got for the following, random games:

Penn State @ Wisconsin (+13.5) -- (Actual: +6)

Oklahoma State @ Missouri (+2.5) -- (Actual: -14)

Air Force @ San Diego State (+2.5) -- (Actual: +10.5)

Any input, as always, is muchos gracias.

If you are going to use points, I recommend capping or weighting them. Some teams stop when they're up 21, and some (overcompensating for some other shortcoming, perhaps) have to win by 50. Points scored and win margin become statistically less meaningful as they increase IMO.

It's the easiest fix I can think of, though it's probably not the only one you need.

So if I do use yards per play, what would be a reasonable adjustment for home field advantage? I know HFA is generally seen as giving a 3 point edge, on average, but what kind of a YPP edge does that translate to?

I see averages of 68 plays per game this year, 380 yards per game, and 28 points per game. This would indicate that if HFA is worth 3 points, at 13.5 yards per point, that's about 40 yards per game, over 68 plays, ~0.6 yards per play. Is this reasonable? Or am I doing something stupid in my calculations?

Edit: I got those figures by averaging the results of all FBS teams. That means games against FCS teams were included, but only the FBS side, not both sides, so they aren't going to be perfect averages. I'm not sure how much this throws my numbers off...

Since this was originally intended to be a tracking thread and I did post a whole bunch of picks, I suppose I should take the time to mention that of my computer's 50 picks vs. opening lines last week, 24 moved in my favor, 20 moved against, and 6 closed at the opening line. Overall, had I been dumb enough to bet all of the games, I would've gone 25-24-1.

I don't really see any point in bothering to post another slate of picks this week, since against opening lines the computer (which still has an 80 point spread from #1 to North Texas) is taking 31 faves and 19 dogs. 6 of the 50 games are off by 15+ points according to the computer. This isn't as bad as last week, but obviously I need to implement at least some of the fixes we've discussed in this thread before I continue tracking the picks seriously.

You should consider the magnitude of the moves as well.

The 24 that moved in my favor did so by a combined total of 41.5 points. The 20 that moved against me did so by a combined total of 33.5 points. This doesn't account for crossing key numbers though, and also doesn't account for the fact that whether the lines moved in my favor or not, and whether the picks won or not, there are too many blatant flaws in the system to care too much right now

This is true.