Bet of the year on lawler

I've learned my lesson fading Brown. Odds seem fine will leave it for now I guess, maybe a small sweat on Brown late if he gets above +200 which I expect he will

Take it down just_mo!

Also i'm hoping Wandy/Sonnen still happens, Wandy has earned an all-american beatdown from Chael... although Sonnen/Belfort has some interesting title implications at MW if they have the fight at 185 given Sonnen or Belfort vs Weidman or Machida would both sell at 185.

Busted 19th for $2585. Got dealt nil all day except for AKx2. First one chopped with another AK, second one lost most of my chips when 99 reshoved and held after JJT flopped. Busted when it folded to my small and I jammed K6 with 10 bigs, BB woke up with KK gg me. Think I did the most I could with what little I got dealt.

Yeah I like Lawler and under as well.

Thinking about firing Lee, Cedenblad, Hein and Dolloway but nothing stands out as amazing

On the TUF Brazil card, tempted on Damm, Miranda and Chavez as dogs, Alves is tempting if he's as good as Chael thinks and i'll take Rony Jason if the price improves. Maia ITD or Maia sub is tempting if it's at decent plus money as well his opponents been subbed by 3 nobodies and Maia has still looked like a beast at WW against lower-tier competition (I thought he was headed to a title shot until the Shields fight)

I like Dolloway also.

He should demolish Munoz. Only worry is basically Munoz LnP for 5 rounds, but I don't think it will happen. Was easier for fighters to LnP at lightheavy weight, he's now fighting at middleweight so he should have better TDD.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship released the following statement on UFC 175:

Due to issues related to Wanderlei Silva’s licensing in the state of Nevada, the UFC was forced to seek a replacement opponent to face Chael Sonnen at UFC 175 on Saturday, July 5 in Las Vegas. Former UFC champion Vitor Belfort has accepted the fight with Sonnen, subject to Belfort receiving a license to compete from the Nevada Athletic Commission.

At base units

1u Dolloway +139
1u Hein -127
1u Cedenblad +102
1u Lee +314

Should do me for now for the UFN card

I'm a big fan of Gegard but I think he's been hyped on his potential for a long time and still hasn't really shown what was expected early on in his career. That said though I think he is more well rounded then Munoz and has a decent reach advantage, he should be able to pick Munoz of with his jab and use his diverse striking to control the stand up. Munoz has to get inside land a big shot and try to control Gegard for 5 rounds like King Mo or land some big shots in scrambles. Think current odds are too high at the moment on Gegard and Mousasi doesn't have the best cardio but Munoz hasn't gone 5 rounds before so big questions marks for him to given how explosive he is. Tough fight to call and I'm having a hard time finding value.

There is very little that I like on this card or the Brazil card other then Miocic vs Maldonado inside the distance at -215 and I have a small amount on Munoz at +285 but only took it as it was better then opening American lines and will hedge it this week.

I'm a big Gregard fan and was on him in the Machida fight due to the great odds (+350 from memory)

I won't be betting him here as not sure there's too much value, Munoz could potentially L&P him for 3 of the 5 so can't justify the -300ish.

Only bet I'm considering this card is Lee at over +300

Also added 0.23u to win 7.53u on my four picks in a parlay

Matt Brown Robbie Lawler odd are out Mat Brown +180

Currently like

Stipe -500
Warrly -195
Cedenblad -105
Eddiva +260

Thanks for the feedback on Gegard, people on other forums seems to be chilly on him too, even though they like him. I feel like it's an overreaction of him being overrated, if you see what I mean.

I think I sort of get what you mean.

He reminds me of someone saying they're a fan of a band but say their favourite song is sort of a B side song as opposed to the one on the radio to act like they know more about the band or something.

Fact is he's done chit against the very elite and his record is missing a lot of big wins that most with that sort of record/hype would have.

I am going to hold out on Brown until he gets +200. I really don't like Lawler being a lefty as this can make a huge difference as both fighters bodies are wide open to the power roundhouse kick.

This fight is either going Lawler in the first or 2nd or Brown will win if it reaches the 3rd+.

Just a reminder to the gentleman that didn't have faith in Matt Brown....

Our bet of my $100 to your 2000+ (can't remember the number, think it was $2500) bet that we made before Browns last 2 or 3 wins on him going undefeated until he gets his belt... Dana just announced the winner of Brown-Lawler will be getting the next shot.... therefore I am offering you a buyout if you'd like to take it. Not sure what the number should be and would like the community to offer input. I like to win money on Sports betting, but I much prefer that it comes from someone outside of this forum if it's for big sums. (Yes Swoop, I did take mercy on ya for the Silva bout and bet with other people as well )

meh, I like Lawler there a lot, he didnt look bad stamina-wise at all in his last two fights and he's clearly a better overall fighter than Brown, really dont see how he loses this

sect, I'll do my 500 vs your 250, lawler vs brown if you want

I suppose it's time to put my money where my mouth is. I confirm.

I think this is probably the true line as I'm very nervous about the first 2 rounds with Lawler having great kicks/knees to the body and with him being a lefty it just makes the target that much bigger.

Probably this will cap my action since this is Brown's toughest 5 round fight in the division besides Condit. Hendriks is not as good as many people take him for. He had 2 one punch KO's over fading fighters and he fought the fight of his life against GSP who really wasn't as motivated as he should have been. Other then that what's so great? He would have lost to Condit had the fight gone 5 rounds as he was totally gassed and that's exactly how the fight will play out again if he fought Condit or Brown for 5 rounds.

TBH his 2 toughest fights at 170 aren't in the UFC, Melvin and Daley would both be kryptonite for him with there more powerful/technical MT styles.

+200 seems right for this fight, really looking forward to this one.

Think Thiago Alves fits into that group quite nicely too.

I'd actually be nervous if I was whoever Sect made the belt bet with - I don't think Brown can beat GSP but I do think he can beat both Lawler and Hendricks in the right circumstances

Thinking about firing Warrley Alves at -186 and Rony Jason at -265 but there's marginal value at that vig I guess, Damm is tempting at +264 too he's much improved and fighting at home and I don't see Mark Eddiva winning very often he seemed like a one dimensional grappler with no killer instinct who was lucky he was fighting a guy with no TDD

Edit: decided to fire (base units)

1u Alves -186
1u Jason -265
1u Damm +264

Let's hope betting on Brazilians in Brazil pans out better than last time when they all lost. I feel like i'm pretty likely to get at least 2/3 here and 2/4 on the UFN card.

I just can't see past the difference in competition, even though Brown looked very good in his wins, his best opponents are who, Silva?

Lawler's only loss in WW is Hendricks 2-3 (after Hendricks beat up GSP). It's true Hendricks mightve lost to Condit in a 5 round fight, but dont see whats indicting about that, Condit is absolutely elite, I cant see how you can compare Condit and Brown based on their resume

Condit and Brown are very similar imo. They both have unbreakable wills... and both have excellent stamina. Condit has a more diverse striking but Brown has better wrestling.

The best fight for fans is Brown vs. Condit but Lawler will also make a great fight with both of them.

Hendricks was training for a 3 round fight vs Condit not a 5. So not sure why it matters that his gas tank was used up by the end of rd3?

Also Hendricks was landing some bombs on Condit during r1 and first bit of r2... Probably why he gassed. Condits got a chin.

Hendricks beat Condit, beat GSP, and just beat Robbie with a torn bicep. His wrestling is world class. His striking is improving at a pretty tremendous rate, and he has some pretty serious power to go along with it.

I don't see anyone having much of a shot at him right now. Woodly is the only guy I can see being competitive, but that's just until he gasses out.

Would love to see brown give it a go, but we haven't seen anything out if him to show that he can even be competitive vs a guy like Hendricks.