ty Sect7G
#niceread
#respect
#gratz

That's a good comparison but Sokoudjou went the other way. Started off beating lil Nog and Arona in Pride who were both regarded as top ten guys and is now losing to Eastern European journeyman. So sad had so much potential but lacks something mentally.

Silva looked gassed in the first round after he had been dominant. Not sure if he had an injury or illness but his cardio was terrible in that fight even before Brown started battering him up close.

I must say I do want to see Brown vs Hendricks now. I expect Rory or Lombard will get the next shot but Brown has earned a #1 contender fight at the very worst tonight. Silva looked great for a round as expected then just ran out of gas and his striking defense was very lackluster. His offense is every bit as good as I thought but his defense and cardio is just weaker than I thought it was.

Shame I didn't make more plays on the card as I would have probably been on palelei, cummings and especially cariaso and magny at the closing lines (although I probably would have had Larkin too) and instead I go 0/2

I still expect Erick Silva to walk through anyone outside the top 15 but i'm worried he'll be a gatekeeper forever after that performance.

I guess that leaves the contender pool at Rory Mac, Lombard, Brown and DHK for the time being. I think all four have a good chance against Hendricks, they all have ways to win, but they also all have ways to lose Rory has his output and heart as a question mark, Brown has wrestling/sub defense, Lombard has cardio and DHK has whether he can outstrike Hendricks if he can't get a takedown

I've gotten pretty crushed on 2 of the last 3 UFC cards, bit frustrating I tried to cut down the number of bets to take what I thought were the best spots and I wound up missing a bunch of bets that would have won and hitting none at all.

FYP

2-0 for me w Cruickshank and Tumenov

What a great call. Total parade horse. And don't think Zuffa didn't know it based on his track record. This fight delivered exactly what it was intended- gas up the Matt Brown hype train.

Brown deserves the fight he should've had before the back injury. I think he stands a decent chance against Lombard but will likely come up short against the rest of the guys ahead of him. Woodley would be way too much IMO, as would Rory if he doesn't wilt like he did against Condit. And while Brown is very tough and decently skilled, even Ellenberger and Lawler are a bit too explosive for me. I think they'd likely hurt him like Silva did but not gas out/fold before they could close the show. Ultimate I expect Brown to settle in as an exciting option for FONs against guys like Thiago Alves, and an awesome gatekeeper to knock up-and-comers down a leg the way Condit did Rory and Brown did Silva.

As for Silva.....Soko is such a great comp. He looks like a great front-runner, but just isn't ready to deal with adversity. Interesting spot for Joe Silva- put him in with Thiago Alves or somebody like that and I expect you'll see Silva wilt again. So maybe you try to ease him into an exciting fight against a game opponent with limited tools.

Silva showed a ton of heart. He could've easily found a way out of that fight in the 2nd or earlier in the 3rd. Same with the last two rounds of the Fitch fight.

Still can't get over that we missed out on Brown vs Hardy and Brown vs Condit due to injuries. This man is a beast, congrats Sect!

Couple mini heart attacks with the body shots though?

For me the tiers at WW look something like this:

Tier One: Hendricks, Woodley, Lawler, Condit, Ellenberger, MacDonald, Diaz

As close as Lawler-Hendricks was, and considering that I'm still not convinced Johnny beat Condit, who I'm still not convinced beat Ellenberger, and barley beat Diaz and Rory.....you get the picture. Anyone can beat anyone here for me.

Tier Two: Lombard, Kampman, Brown, Alves, Maia, Kim, Koscheck

Lombard has a case for tier one but I want to see a bit more. All seven I rate above him can hang with his explosiveness and outlast his gas tank based in what he's shown so far. Kampman is terrific, but like Brown I think he's missing that final piece (be it elite athleticism, one-punch KO power, lightning submissions, whatever) necessary to become a real title threat. Alves has the goods to get there on pure talent and skill (do you remember the violent tear he went on over Lytle, Parisyan, Hughes and Koscheck to earn his shot at St. Pierre?) but health and wrestling seem more likely to prevent a serious run than not. Maia is one of my favorites but he's too one-dimensional, Kim is limited, and Kos is about shot.

Tier Three: Pyle, Story, Howard, Thompson, Silva, etc.

Would anyone really bet on Silva against anyone I just ranked above him? Frankly I think Pyle or Hathaway is more his speed right now, and that's just the kind of test I'd give him next.

Matt Brown v Nick Diaz would be a war.

Immortal deserves a title shot tho, Diaz needs to work his way up the ladder.

Thx guys for the gg's. Really happy for Brown as a person as it looks like he finally might get the break he deserves. If not a TS a fight vs. Diaz would be great.

basically the only way Diaz comes back is:

- direct title shot (in his dreams, totally undeserved)
-Against a pure striker top 10 (not a lot of those left, from the top of my head we have: Brown, Kampfman, Thiago Silva, Lawler, Condit)

Plus Dana is kinda fed up w him by now. He wanted to throw him at the Cuban Diaz said no ****ing way.

Well lost big on Silva and Larkin won small on Sandro (Bellator) and The Hulk.

Updated record: 30-19 +12.25u

On to the next event

I just got back from a Live Tourney so I couldn't tape the Brown fight on PVR. Could someone send me a link of the whole fight so I can show it to every random guy that knocks on my door. Sadly on to the next card....

Does anyone really think Dillashaw has a chance here? I think he's physically weaker then Faber but he's more explosive/faster. For that reason he might have a better chance but this looks like a tough fight for him to win.

I dont see him getting a takedown here so i dont see him winning basically ever. Doesnt stand a chance on the feet. Will be looking for barao props.

I like Dillashaw at current odds 600+

He's faster than faber and the more technical striker. His last fight (Easton) was one of the most clinical striking performances I've seen in MMA(I also felt he beat Assunco).

Once again though I'm highly highly biased towards Bang MT

The only advantage I could possible see him have is cardio, but even that, Barao has really good cardio himself so I'd say they're equally good there. Barao did lose the first round vs Eddie Wineland so it's not like he's indestructible or anything like that, it's just that Barao should be better than Dillashaw everywhere.

I just think he's more +400 better than +600 better

Wouldn't shock me if Dillishaw is the better striker here. In which case poor game planning could easily cost Barao his title. Will be betting Dillishaw on fight night.

Do tell.

Dillashaw is going to be a better striker than a guy who schooled a solid striker in McDonald, ran circles around Faber, and knocked down solid strikers in Pickett and Wineland?

If you think he's going to be the better striker you better go all in because this is unthinkable value with Dillashaw also being the wrestler.

Where you feel the true line is Mo?

I'd say he wins around 15% of the time so...according to SBR's calculator +566?

I just don't think people are giving enough credit for just how good Barao is. His style is just so difficult because his movement makes him so tough to corner and outgrapple, and his distance striking is basically as good as it gets in MMA.

http://mmasharevideos.whowillwinwhy....-vs-silva.html

mmashare.cc often has the links up after the fights

I think Dillashaw's biggest problem might be his chin - Dodson connected and he dropped and Dodson is a much smaller guy than Barao who also has power. Hugo Viana had him on wobbly legs too and he's also a smallish BW who is only a mid-level UFC tier guy as much as I like him.

I may play Dillashaw if he gets to +700 and i've been on him in most of his fights (except Dodson and Viana) but I don't think anyone other than maybe a prime Dominick Cruz if he ever comes back and is the same fighter will be dethroning Barao in his prime.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dillashaw won a round but in the end I think Barao finishes him

I do like Hendo at +725 vs Cormier though. It's Dan f-ing Henderson. He beat Fedor and has only been knocked out by a roided up Belfort. Sure he won't have TRT and is past his prime but Cormier is untested at LHW and Hendo's punchers chance at +725 vs anyone has to be worth a play especially when he has reasonable TDD

I mean obviously Cormier wins well over half the time but no way Hendo isn't the play at better than +700

Of the 5 fights with lines so far I think i'm leaning Varner and Ellenberger as well in their fights at current lines I think +252 is way too much and is being based off MMAth with their respective Lawler fights and in Varner's case he just got caught vs Trujillo and Krause quit fighting vs Bobby Green in that weird low blow situation in his last fight and i'm not sure he has the heart to handle the pace Varner will bring

Quite liked Rivera when he was +2xx but it's probably closer to accurate now vs Mizugaki, if it keeps dropping might switch sides and play Mizugaki if I can get closer to evens or go with Rivera at better than +200

Ya I like DIllashaw and have bet him a bunch in the past as well. Just don't see how he beats Barao.

Ellenberger +240 seems bananas, I mean I know he'll have trouble with Lawler's aggression but he can counterpunch quite effectively at times. I love Ellenberger here.

I love Cisco +170 as well, have bet Mizugaki a bunch in the past and he's very solid, and no doubt he wins the third if it gets there. But Mizugaki's been rocked a bunch and Cisco has power to burn.