MMA Thread - Page 878 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I see value in Phil Davis at -200. He has better technical striking, cardio, takedowns/tdd, grappling. Johnson has more power but that's about his only edge. And even though it's 205 any weight cut can be trouble for Johnson and his last few outings were at heavy.

FWIW, I think this photo was taken yesterday or the day before. Also, I thought he only fought once at heavyweight.

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04-23-2014 , 06:36 PM

#21927

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

How much do you guys think fighting out of Japan takes out of Gomi?

He has lost 5 out of 7 fights that have been outside if Japan. (With one of his two wins being his 4th pro fight vs a nobody)

However it is hard to judge if it is him not performing, or just being out matched, as his. 5 losses are to Diaz,Penn,Florian,Guida,Diaz.

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04-23-2014 , 06:41 PM

#21928

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

Shaun Al-Shatti ‏@shaunalshatti 5h
Dan Henderson vs. Daniel Cormier is official for UFC 173. Co-main event. Winner gets in line for a title shot.

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04-23-2014 , 07:15 PM

#21929

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

also

MMAjunkie ‏@MMAjunkie 2h
Ryan Bader vs. Rafael 'Feijao' Cavalcante booked for UFC 174 in Vancouver http://dlvr.it/5TFpxb via @MMAjunkie

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04-23-2014 , 08:45 PM

#21930

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

Hard to say. Psychologically, not much. It's more the cardio aspect if he gets in late, he may get jet lagged, train less, food is different or that sort of stuff. I mean, it shouldn't be a factor at all. If it is, it's probably neglible.

The fights he lost was because he's been getting stylistically bad matchups and the guys were higher ranked than him.

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04-23-2014 , 08:45 PM

#21931

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by anteatereater

Shaun Al-Shatti ‏@shaunalshatti 5h
Dan Henderson vs. Daniel Cormier is official for UFC 173. Co-main event. Winner gets in line for a title shot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by anteatereater

also

MMAjunkie ‏@MMAjunkie 2h
Ryan Bader vs. Rafael 'Feijao' Cavalcante booked for UFC 174 in Vancouver http://dlvr.it/5TFpxb via @MMAjunkie

Well, Hendo is going to get worked and I hope Cavalance KO's Bader.

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04-23-2014 , 09:23 PM

#21932

21times20

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,302

gomi was already on a steep decline and was getting beat up by guys in japan before he even signed with the ufc. i think he's actually looked better in the united states than he did in his last pre-ufc fight against tony ****ing hervey.

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04-23-2014 , 10:34 PM

#21933

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Well Gomi was the man before going to the U.S to fight Diaz. Was also doing pretty well before going down to fight Penn.

Might be nothing. Japanese fighters have had problems when coming down here though, and Gomi's record down here isn't great. Trying to decide if VF is worth a bet or not.

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04-23-2014 , 11:52 PM

#21934

luckproof

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,935

Going to have to root against Hendo for the first time, love him but hes got nothing for Jones. def don't want to see that ME ever.

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04-24-2014 , 12:11 AM

#21935

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,341

There may be value on Bader there if he's a dog which seems likely. Cavalcante has looked goodin some fights, horrible against Thiago Silva but if he's -200 which I expect he will be I think i'll be on Bader at +180ish - of course if i'm wrong and Bader is the favourite i'll probably take Cavalcante

Like Cormier at evens vs Hendo, i'd love to see Hendo win but I don't think he has more than a puncher's chance at this stage of his career

Last edited by SwoopAE; 04-24-2014 at 12:17 AM.

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04-24-2014 , 12:20 AM

#21936

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Cormier should be a huge favorite in that fight -350 or higher

He's better at everything than hendo and this is dans first fight off the trt in about 5 years. He'll be a much slower weaker fighter in this time around

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04-24-2014 , 12:33 AM

#21937

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,341

Yeah i'm expecting Cormier -280 or thereabouts but you never know

Hoping Bader is +200 or better, and it's not that unlikely although i'm expecting +1xx

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04-24-2014 , 12:45 AM

#21938

Swiiftx

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

This +100. I'd go as far as -500. Hendo has a good punchers chance against anyone, but DC's chin is solid, dude has almost no neck, is short and stocky, can wrestle, has good cardio, smothering game style. He isn't worn out like other fights, and he hasn't taken as much damage as hendo in his career. We also saw that there was no problem with his weight cut, so that factor is pretty much out.
I don't see any way how Hendo wins this (barring random KO). DC is going to tire out Hendo in the first round, especially now that Hendo won't have TRT in his body.

It's a shame, I like hendo and had hoped he'd retire after the Shogun fight.

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04-24-2014 , 01:32 AM

#21939

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Anything sub -300 and I'll bet heavily on him.

Whatever the price will be good to add to parlays as it's as close to a lock as a fight can be. I feel hendo is less of a threat than Cummings was as he's a better known quantity and we now know Cormier can make the weight.

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04-24-2014 , 02:11 AM

#21940

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

I guess if he's going to fight, it's not the worst use of Hendo. Whatever name value he has left is likely gone in one fight, and who else at 205 are they going to give the rub to? There's basically nobody else remotely believable at 205 besides Phil Davis (and Gus rematch obv), and he's probably 4th in line.

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04-24-2014 , 02:23 AM

#21941

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

lol Bader is going to be like -250.

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04-24-2014 , 12:07 PM

#21942

Showtimez

banned

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,131

Yeah Bader is probably gonna open as a fav and the line will swing to evens or + right away.

Now that the pokerz slows down for me until maybe WSOP I am gonna be more active sports betting the World Cup and the MMAs.

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04-24-2014 , 03:27 PM

#21943

Swiiftx

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Ya idk whoever thought bader was going to be underdog. Around -200 i can see him opening.

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04-24-2014 , 03:42 PM

#21944

GiveHug

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 218

how about boetsch +705 on pinnacle? thought they might not open it at all not to create a huge arb, but they opened even bigger than others.

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04-24-2014 , 03:48 PM

#21945

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Yeah trying to get another .5U on that

Almost worried a fix is in, line just makes no sense

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04-24-2014 , 04:04 PM

#21946

21times20

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,302

only other plausible explanation is a serious injury that he is going to try to fight through. maybe his eye is still ****ed up from the phillipou poke?

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04-24-2014 , 04:15 PM

#21947

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Don't think the line is really that far off. I capped it at +470. Only about a 5% difference.

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04-24-2014 , 04:23 PM

#21948

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

+700? and rockhold on some sites -1400 earlier in the week?

This is the strongest favourite we've seen in a long time and he was KO'd in the first fight before last.....